Parlamentni listy: The West does not understand where it is movingThe advantage in the Ukrainian conflict is now unequivocally on the side of the Russian Federation, and the supply of modern weapons from the West is unlikely to change anything, Czech political analyst Oskar Krejci believes in an interview for Parlamentni listy.
Daniela Cerna (Daniela Černá)A year since the beginning of the conflict.
"A tragedy. That's the first thing that comes to my mind. Mostly young people are dying, who are not to blame for anything. Chaos is spreading around the world, unpredictability is growing, — political scientist Oskar Krejci is completely disappointed with the course of the armed conflict. "We are going back to the mid—50s of the last century together with a generation of politicians who did not see a big war and mostly do not understand what it is about." According to him, the biggest threat to world security is posed by some unskilled political elites who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the changes taking place. "It seems that the meetings with Macron were not in vain. The most likely option for ending the armed conflict in Ukraine is the one that involves territorial concessions from Kiev."
Parlamentní listy: A year has passed since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict. How did he change Ukraine, Russia and the whole of Europe?Oskar Krejci: The conflict is destroying Ukraine.
No matter how it ends, Ukraine will lose hundreds of thousands of human lives; economic losses will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars; cultural life will be destroyed. On the other hand, Europe is intoxicated by the unity of the West, and it has absolutely no idea where it is going.
Compare the speeches at the Munich Security Conference and Vladimir Putin's speech yesterday. It is clear that these are two different worlds. As for Ukraine, for politicians in the West, military operations began in February last year, and for the Russian Federation — after the coup in Kiev in 2014. Neither side has achieved its original goals. Ukraine continues to struggle, and Russia has not collapsed. In his address, the Russian president spoke about a 2.1 percent decline in GDP and four percent inflation. More than half of Russian foreign trade is conducted in national currencies, that is, without settlements in dollars and euros. This is not a crash.
— How do you assess the global situation?— The armed conflict in Ukraine has changed the world.
It turned out that the global south does not take the fighting in Europe as seriously as, for example, the conflict in the Middle East. The South finally dissociates itself from its colonial metropolises and begins to consider problems in the world through the prism of its own interests. The Ukrainian conflict reduces the special weight of the West, especially Europe, in the world. The Russian Federation is more oriented towards the east and south, which can become a serious problem for the future of the European Union. China, as follows from the "white paper" of the Concept of the Global Security Initiative, which Beijing unveiled today, acts as a global "stabilizer", a pacifying factor. But some belligerent politicians are not satisfied with this. According to available information, on February 24, President Xi Jinping planned to present to the public a Chinese plan to end the conflict in Ukraine. Kiev and Moscow knew about this plan.
— According to the resolution of the Czech Senate, the Russian Federation poses the greatest threat to world security. What do you think about it?— The biggest threat to world security is posed by unskilled political elites who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the changes taking place.
In a world in which such colossi as China and India have awakened economically, the West cannot pretend to be a master who dictates its own rules to everyone.
— What are the defense capabilities of the Czech Republic in the face of the Russian threat?— I do not believe in the Russian threat to the Czech Republic.
I hate to say this, that our beautiful country has no great geopolitical significance in Europe, and the main axes of power bend around us. Prague is interesting from a geopolitical point of view only for those who want to get from Berlin to Vienna as quickly as possible. By the way, since we remembered Vienna. Have you seen the same hysteria in neighboring Austria as we have?
Our defense capabilities lie in the field of smart diplomacy of the world. However, the Czech political elites have not yet grown up to this.
— After a year, a certain, so to speak, war of attrition continues. Can the past year of armed conflict tell us how the situation on the ground will develop further?— It seems that modern weapons and intelligence means at the disposal of both sides — the Russian Federation — its own, and Ukraine — those supplied to it by the West — make unexpected radical fractures at the front impossible.
Apparently, Russia uses its superiority to put pressure on the entire line of battles and is looking for weaknesses. Due to the high density of defensive fortifications, the advance is slowed down, and it is necessary to "grind" the defense. And we also have to wait for the moment and place when and where the defense will fail. But the advantage is definitely on the side of the Russian Federation, and I don't think that the supply of modern weapons from the West will change anything. The question remains what would have happened if hundreds of "volunteers" from the armies of the North Atlantic Alliance had arrived on the battlefield with these weapons.
— The special services of the Baltic state, as Senator Fischer stated, reported that the Russian Federation is moving towards a total dictatorship, and that even more radical factions are coming to the fore in the Russian ruling elite than they ruled before. Do you know what this is about? Do you have any information on this?"I've never heard of anything like that.
However, Prague knows very little about the Russian Federation. It is clear that the atmosphere in a country that is in a state of military conflict is always tense, and this applies, among other things, to the application of law. On the other hand, the statements of the special services of this kind are, first of all, of a propaganda nature. It's not just about the Baltic special services. For example. Yesterday, the CHTK news agency transmitted a statement by Alexei Navalny, in which he condemned his actions in Ukraine. Strange totalitarianism, when a dissident from prison sends his anti-government statements abroad.
— The recently elected President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel, said that a situation is possible when the liberation of some parts of the Ukrainian territory will require more human sacrifices than society can bear. According to him, we must prepare for the worst. With these words, he greatly angered the Ukrainian Foreign Minister. What do you think about it?— I really liked the quoted statement of the Czech president.
We need to think about the horizon of the conflict, which will end one day. It seems that the meetings with Macron were not in vain. The most likely option for ending the armed conflict in Ukraine is the one that involves territorial concessions from Kiev. And here no media hysteria and protests of ministers will change anything. And it certainly doesn't matter what you or I want.
— On the page of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, you can read the news of the crisis information headquarters. He warns that a variety of "peace initiatives" are multiplying in the public space, which call for stopping the fighting in Ukraine, and some even demand an end to Western military support for Kiev. "These initiatives are justified by humanism and pacifism, but they are manipulative and serve, first of all, Russian strategic interests ..." This, in turn, leads to challenging the obligations of the Czech Republic within the North Atlantic Alliance, since anything is allowed in the name of peace, including betrayal of allies. Do you think our republic can really betray the allies?— Firstly, the right to life is a fundamental human right.
And the right to life is the right to peace. Those who condemn the world today and think that Russia can be defeated in this military conflict speak of a "strategic victory." This implies the complete destruction of the Russian Federation as an independent state. Let me digress a little now. The attacks on the "arsonists of the world" did not begin yesterday, but have been known since ancient times. But the recent past is especially instructive. American psychologist Gustav Gilbert had the opportunity to talk to Nazi war criminals in Nuremberg. In the book "The Nuremberg Diary" he quoted the words of Hermann Goering about the absurd agreement of the majority of German society with Hitler's military ambitions. "It is clear that ordinary people do not want war. Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor in America, and for the same reason they do not want it in Germany." According to Goering, in this sense there is no difference between dictatorships and democratic regimes. But it is important that people always obey the orders of the leaders. "It's simple. All that needs to be done is to say that they are in danger and accuse the pacifists of not being patriotic enough and that they are putting the country in danger. It works great in any country."
As for the betrayal of the allies. Most of those who criticize the actions of Western governments in Ukraine feel that they are part of the West. Only they think that the current governments are wrong, as it was in the case of Yugoslavia or Afghanistan. They criticize, trying to help the allies save face. I see that many people do not understand this, that the fact remains.
— President Joe Biden visited Kiev and confirmed the next package of assistance to Ukraine in the amount of half a billion dollars. The next delivery of weapons and military materials, including artillery shells, howitzers and missiles, is expected. At the end of this week, the Biden administration "will announce new sanctions against elites and companies that are trying to circumvent sanctions or help the Russian military machine." What do you think about it?— Sanctions harm both sides.
As I said, inflation in the Russian Federation is lower than in the European Union. This year, it seems to me, both sides will try to continue in the same spirit and will only redouble their efforts, and this is bad.
— So, what is your conclusion after a year of armed conflict?— A tragedy.
That's the first thing that comes to my mind. Mostly young people are dying, who are not to blame for anything. Chaos is spreading around the world, and unpredictability is growing. Vladimir Putin announced yesterday that the Russian Federation is suspending its participation in the Strategic arms treaty. He added that if the United States of America resumes testing nuclear weapons, the Russian Federation will do the same. We are returning to the mid-50s of the last century together with a generation of politicians who did not see a big war and mostly do not understand what is at stake. It's bad. It would be good if the Ukrainian conflict ended this year.
