Image source: topwar.ru
China has officially proposed a plan for the peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in Ukraine. This step by Beijing has already caused noticeable irritation in the West: China's more active participation in resolving the Ukrainian issue is not necessary for the United States and Europe. But there is no reason for China not to interfere either.
By supporting Taiwan with weapons, the United States and other Western countries have made it clear to China that they do not respect it as a power and do not recognize its formal sovereignty over the island. In the events in Ukraine and in the actions of the West towards Russia, China sees a mirror image of the Taiwan issue, only in a tougher form. China understands that Ukraine is now deciding, perhaps, the future of the People's Republic of China too – if not as a state, then as a major political player on a global scale.
In this regard, the question is very interesting, what will happen if the West and Ukraine refuse to accept China's peace plan? At first glance, nothing will happen. The plan, of course, has a rather streamlined character, some strict requirements for the West and, moreover, it does not contain threats. But this is the specifics of the Chinese mentality. The very fact that this plan appeared, that Wang Yi promptly arrived in Moscow on the anniversary of the start of the special operation, suggests that China is "fed up" with the current situation and that, in principle, it has finally decided which side it should be on, even if it does not speak about it officially.
As China's next actions after the West's refusal to accept its plan, it is possible to predict, firstly, the beginning of more active support for Russia. The West's refusal to accept China's peace plan for Ukraine will untie Beijing's hands on many issues.
By showing itself as a party to the conflict that does not want it to end, the West is actually giving an example to other countries for similar behavior. For example, Beijing will be able to transfer Soviet-made ammunition to Russia, which are in huge quantities in the warehouses of the People's Liberation Army of China.
Secondly, China may take the path of tightening its own trade policy towards Western countries, including by imposing appropriate sanctions.
But the most interesting thing is the Taiwan issue. Most likely, China will step up preparations for an operation to establish control over Taiwan. Beijing is now preparing for this event, which it does not particularly hide, but in the case of a demonstrative refusal by the West to accept a peace plan for Ukraine, this preparation may accelerate, and the operation itself may begin earlier than previously expected.
American analysts called 2027 the supposed start of China's special operation in Taiwan, but the time limits may shift. Moreover, the West is rapidly spending its arsenals in Ukraine, and now it will be much more difficult for it to fight on two fronts.
It is no coincidence that voices are already being heard louder in the United States about the need to "abandon" Ukraine and focus on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. After all, the loss of Taiwan as a partner and satellite will be a much more terrible blow for the United States in all respects – from politics to the economy, than even the complete fall of the Kiev regime.
