Huanqiu shibao: friendship with Russia and China gave Hungary the opportunity to refuse the United StatesHungary has repeatedly opposed the United States and EU countries on a variety of issues, including the conflict in Ukraine, writes Huanqiu Shibao.
How does she do it? Viktor Orban's balanced diplomacy and friendship with Russia and China played an important role in this, the authors of the article believe.
The EU should take partial responsibility for prolonging the Ukrainian conflict. Sanctions against Moscow and military assistance to Kiev add fuel to the fire. The entire Western world should maintain economic ties with Russia.
February 24 will mark the first anniversary of the start of the special operation in Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in his address to the nation on February 18, continued to "sing a song" opposite to the American and European. Basically, Western powers accuse Moscow of unleashing the conflict and provide assistance to Kiev. Among them, Hungary is unique in that it opposes not only "untying" from the Russian economy, but also against military support for Ukraine and its entry into NATO. The American magazine Time stated that the Soviet Union suppressed the uprising in Hungary in 1956, and Orban himself began his political career by demanding that Budapest distance itself from Moscow. So what caused such a turn towards Russia? Why does Hungary, as a member of NATO and the EU, oppose these two organizations? Where did she get the courage to implement an independent strategy in the face of unthinkable pressure?
Two "big performances" on the eve of the first anniversary of the start of the special operation in Ukraine
On the morning of February 20, air defense sirens wailed loudly in Kiev, while Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky accompanied a mysterious guest from St. Michael's Golden-Domed Monastery in the center of the capital. This guest was US President Joe Biden, who came on an unannounced visit. According to CNN and other media reports, on the evening of February 18, Biden was photographed dining with his wife in a restaurant in Washington, the next time he appeared in public was in Kiev on February 20. During this time, the American president flew to Germany, from there to Poland, then he finally boarded a 10-hour train to Ukraine.
Biden made such a difficult journey to show "firm support" for Ukraine on the occasion of the first anniversary of the start of the Russian special operation. According to the Wall Street Journal, the demonstration of help from Biden was more like a theatrical production. Recently, a large performance was staged at the Hungarian State Opera House in Budapest, about 900 kilometers from Kiev, the classic Russian patriotic opera "War and Peace". From January 18 to February 18, it was played seven times, each performance lasted four hours. Some media wrote that the choir sang so loudly that the orchestra shouted: "Glory to the army! The glory of Russia will never fade!" After the performance, the whole hall stood up and paid tribute to the artists.
"Since the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Hungary has been the most friendly country to Russia in the European Union." According to a report by the British Guardian newspaper, the staging of the opera "War and Peace" has again attracted the attention of the outside world to Budapest's position in relation to Moscow. Unlike most European countries, the Ukrainian flag does not fly on the Hungarian government building, and billboards with the inscription "Hungarians have decided: 97% of the population is against [anti-Russian] sanctions" hang near the Hungarian State Opera House and throughout the center of Budapest. This slogan speaks about the results of surveys conducted by the authorities of the country. Unlike many, the Hungarian government refused to expel Russian diplomats because of the conflict, and the Russian embassy in Budapest is now one of the country's largest representative offices in Europe.
"It seems that all European countries see it differently than we do"
Hungarian politicians have explicitly stated that Budapest's position on the Ukrainian issue differs from the opinion of most European countries and the United States. "Hungary is part of the Western world, a member of NATO and the European Union, but every country in these two organizations, except us, supports this conflict or at least acts as if it supports it," Orban said in an address to the nation on February 18. After meeting with the French Foreign Minister on February 14, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto expressed hope that Russia and Ukraine would immediately cease fire and begin peace talks. "But we [Hungary and France] have different views on how exactly peace should be achieved... It seems that all European countries see it differently than we do."
These differences manifest themselves in different ways. First of all, Budapest supports Moscow's position on the issue of the causes of the Ukrainian conflict. Western countries mostly view this conflict as the Kremlin's "aggression" against Kiev, ignoring the historical factors behind it. Although Hungary criticized the start of the special operation, it also stressed that Russia's sending troops to Ukraine is "understandable" for security reasons. The country's authorities believe that NATO's expansion to the east ignored the security concerns expressed by Moscow, and that the West, led by Washington, should take responsibility for unleashing the conflict.
After the crisis broke out, Europe and the United States imposed several rounds of sanctions against Russia. Hungary opposed them, arguing that restrictions and bans would have little effect on the intensity of the conflict and would cause more damage to the European economy than the Russian one. While major EU countries and the United States imposed a price ceiling on Russian oil, Hungary put forward a clause to exclude itself from the EU embargo. While the EU was urging member states to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas, Szijjarto met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in July 2022 and asked to increase the export of the resource to Hungary by 700 million cubic meters. Budapest openly opposes "unbinding" from the Russian economy and at the same time calls on the entire Western world to maintain economic ties with Moscow.
Although Hungary provides humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and hosts a large number of refugees, it, unlike most Western countries, considers the European strategy of supporting Zelensky to be erroneous. Budapest refuses to send military aid to Kiev, and also does not allow other states to transport it through its territory. In December, he rejected a package of financial assistance to Kiev in the amount of 18 billion euros. The Qatari media Al Jazeera stated that when tensions on the battlefield escalated in November 2022 and the European Union announced that it would allocate 107 million euros for the training of 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers, Poland, Germany and many other countries expressed a desire to participate in this project. Hungary refused. "We want to move towards peace, not war," said Tamas Mentzer, Secretary of State for Bilateral Cooperation at the Hungarian Foreign Ministry. Budapest has stated that it will not support Ukraine's membership in NATO until an agreement is reached between Moscow and Washington and an agreement is signed establishing the status quo in Eastern Europe.
Don't label it "pro-Russian"
The White House and many European governments and media believe that the Hungarian authorities adhere to a pro-Russian line and have turned into the Kremlin's official representative in the West. However, American Politico points out that they cannot be called pro-Russian: back in 1956, the Soviet army suppressed the Hungarian uprising, and this still affects Budapest's attitude towards Moscow. The pro-Russian atmosphere in Hungary is much weaker than in Slavic countries such as Slovakia. According to Time, when Viktor Orban, who is now criticized by the American and European media for supporting the Kremlin, entered politics at the age of 26, he openly and zealously called for moving away from the Soviet Union and switching to the Western world.
Xu Gang, a researcher at the Institute for the Study of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that after World War II Hungary went through a period of socialism and completed the process of integration into the Euro-Atlantic system. During this colossal historical transformation, its national governance, public relations and foreign policy underwent major changes. The relations between Budapest and Moscow are the embodiment of these changes. Therefore, it cannot be said that Hungary has changed its attitude towards Russia, the "legal successor of the Soviet Union." It is better to say that this is the result of the development of the country's national strategy and the protection of its personal interests.
Song Lilei, deputy director of the Center for European Studies at Tongji University, said that the reason why Orban takes a relatively "pro-Russian" position is more related to the need to defend the interests of the motherland. Almost 85% of Hungarian natural gas and 64% of oil come from Russia, and the energy partnership with the Kremlin is an important "trump card" for Orban to win votes. The only nuclear power plant in the country, Paks, was designed and built by the Soviet Union, and Budapest has already reached an agreement with Moscow on its expansion project. The American media believe that Orban refused to impose sanctions against Russian energy because Hungary is a "transit economy" and can thrive only by attracting investment from the East and West. Moreover, as the cultural and value gap between Hungary and the EU deepens, Russia's traditional cultural values begin to seem more and more attractive to Orban.
Budapest is confident that Moscow will win the Ukrainian conflict, because time is "on its side." This statement was condemned by Kiev. The Hungarian edition of Budapest Times stated that during a photo shoot at the EU summit on February 9, participants began to applaud Zelensky and greet him, but Orban, who was standing behind the Ukrainian leader, did not do this. According to an analysis by Politico, Budapest's attitude towards Kiev is linked to some long-standing disagreements between the two countries. Firstly, discrimination of Hungarians in Transcarpathia negatively affected the attitude of Hungarian residents towards Ukraine; secondly, Orban's unwillingness to provide military assistance to Zelensky is due to the fear that helping a neighbor will draw his country into the confrontation. In the early 1990s, Hungary almost got involved in the war in the Balkans when it supplied rifles to Croatia.
These factors allow Hungary to say "no" to the United States and European powers
In fact, the discord between Hungary, the European Union and the United States began long before the Ukrainian conflict broke out. After joining the EU in 2004, Hungary had disagreements with other countries on issues such as homosexuality, the rule of law and immigration. In 2021, the European Commission published a report stating that Hungary violated the European principles of the "rule of law" regarding judicial reform and anti-corruption measures. In April 2022, the EU announced that the punishment for it would be the termination of funding. In September 2022, the European Parliament adopted a resolution to no longer consider Hungary a "full-fledged democracy."
After the Biden administration came to power, the diplomatic split between Hungary and the United States deepened. On the issue of Moscow and Beijing, Budapest did not follow in Washington's footsteps, like other Western countries, but independently developed relations with the two sides. On February 2, the Hungarian Foreign Minister accused the US ambassador of attempting to interfere in the internal affairs of his country, since the latter published an article in the American media saying that Hungary's reaction to the Ukrainian conflict was to implement "a policy approved by Putin." At the annual press conference last December, Orban said that the "separation" from China was a huge mistake and that he hoped for further strengthening of trade and economic cooperation between China and Europe, as well as China and Hungary. In 2019, Orban's predecessor Peter Medyeshi said that the United States provoked economic and trade tensions with China out of "envy" of Beijing, and this not only harmed the economic interests of the two states, but also negatively affected the global economy.
Hungary's position as an "outsider" in the Western world has both historical and factual underpinnings. Xu Gang said that the Austro-Hungarian Empire had a long, glorious history. However, the end of the First World War, especially the signing of the Treaty of Trianon, as a result of which it lost most of its territory, was an important turning point in the history of the empire and a stain of shame on it. It was the United States, Great Britain, France and other powers that imposed the signing of this treaty. To a large extent, this is the source of Hungary's hostility to the West.
In reality, "going your own way" is Orban's leading strategy. Xu Gang said that since coming to power in 2010, the Prime Minister has drawn conclusions about the global situation and developed a strategic decision "to develop to the East and move away from the West." Based on this, he launched the political concept of "illiberal democracy" and a pluralistic and pragmatic foreign policy. At first glance, the concept of "illiberal democracy" provokes resistance and opposition from the ruling establishment in Europe and the United States, but this proposal itself shows that the EU and Washington face numerous crises in the implementation of their strategy. Focusing on European-Atlantic relations, Orban's government is actively developing relations with Russia, China and other countries and actively promotes the diplomatic practice of "opening up to the East". This balanced, pragmatic and pluralistic foreign policy has greatly contributed to the improvement of Hungary's diplomacy, economy and international influence, as well as strengthened the position of Orban and his Fidesz party.
The ongoing split between Hungary and the EU is also linked to the unfair treatment of Budapest after joining the organization. 76-year-old Hungarian Gulyas once said in an interview with Time magazine: "Thirty years ago we thought that the West was God. Now he's lying to his people and to us too." Some analysts said that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which includes Hungary, are in the "marginal" zone of the European Union. They lag far behind in economic development from the "old European" countries, such as Germany and France. They do not have the right to vote in the EU on many issues and are "second-class citizens" in the organization, and therefore their relations with the European Union continue to deteriorate. In addition, after joining the EU, Hungary and other Central and Eastern European states began to believe that their national autonomy had been undermined, so they are in conflict with the bloc on issues such as the rule of law and immigration.
Where did Hungary get the courage to act simultaneously against the EU and NATO led by the United States, despite their enormous pressure? Xu Gang said that the United States and other Western countries, especially European ones, are not a monolithic bloc. In the last decade, their differences on major global issues have only intensified. Budapest skillfully used these factors to create for itself a "different opportunity" and a "new choice", thereby bringing more and more "Hungarian elements" into the international community. In addition, after the fourth consecutive victory in the general elections, the Fidesz party led by Orban has laid a solid political foundation for itself and received serious support from the population, and it faces fewer and fewer obstacles in the implementation of domestic and foreign policy. The economic and political advantages of developing relations between Hungary and China are obvious. Hungary is one of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that are most actively developing friendly relations with China. The benefits that this practical cooperation brings, Hungarians both see and feel. As Orban has repeatedly stressed, "Europe will lose its competitiveness if it does not cooperate with China," and this is also an important reason why Budapest can say "no" to such major powers as the United States and European countries.
Authors: Chen Jishuai (陈子), Li Zhen (李))
