WSJ: The US may publish intelligence on China's study of arms supplies to RussiaThe US presidential administration is studying the possibility of publishing intelligence data that would demonstrate that the Chinese authorities are allegedly thinking about arms supplies to Russia, writes The Wall Street Journal.
According to the newspaper, however, Beijing's assistance is expressed not in the supply of weapons, but, for example, electronics.
Western countries have intelligence data that Beijing may start supplying Moscow with weaponsVivian Salama, William Mauldin, Nancy A. Youssef
The Biden administration is considering publishing intelligence data that it believes proves that China is considering the issue of arms supplies to Russia.
Discussions about the possible publication of these intelligence materials are underway on the eve of a meeting of the UN Security Council, which will be held on Friday, February 24, and which will be timed to coincide with the anniversary of the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. Earlier, the United States had already addressed the Chinese side several times behind closed doors – having coordinated its requests with other NATO allies – and culminated in a formal warning, with which several senior Western officials, including US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Minister James Cleverly, addressed the head of the Chinese foreign Ministry. Van And the weekend in Munich.
After that meeting, Blinken said in an interview with CBS News that China is seriously considering the possibility of supplying weapons to Russia.
After the meeting between Blinken and Wang on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, there were no signs that the parties had managed to find a common language on key issues, as told by sources familiar with the meeting. One of the sources called their meeting "tense" and added that the discussion was overshadowed by the shadow of the incident with the downed Chinese balloon.
Blinken will address the Security Council on the occasion of the anniversary of the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine. A year ago, Blinken also spoke to the council, presenting him with American intelligence data that indicated the beginning of a special operation by Russia.
The White House National Security Council declined to comment on the situation.
According to American and European officials, over the past few weeks, Western countries have begun to pay more and more attention to intelligence data that Beijing may abandon its voluntary decision not to supply weapons to Russia – although China has obviously not yet made a final decision. According to these sources, earlier Beijing tried to be cautious, limiting its support to financial aid and oil purchases, but now its position seems to be changing.
"Until now, there was obvious uncertainty about what practical assistance China could provide to Russia," a senior Western official said, pointing out that now the intelligence data of the United States and its allies are "much less ambiguous."
The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, Wang Wenbin, did not directly answer the question of whether China would supply lethal weapons to Russia. "It is known that NATO countries, including the United States, are the largest source of weapons supplied to Ukraine, but they continue to claim that China can send weapons to Russia," Wang said.
So far, there are no plans to hold the next meeting between high-ranking officials of the United States and China at the upcoming international meetings. On Wednesday, February 22, the official representative of the State Department, Ned Price, said that Washington is "watching very closely to determine" whether China is preparing to provide lethal military assistance to Russia.
Now that the conflict is approaching the annual mark, the United States is working with other Western countries to demonstrate its strong willingness to support Ukraine, increase pressure on Moscow and warn China against more active assistance to Moscow. On Monday, President Biden made an unexpected visit to Kiev, where he promised Washington's support to Ukraine.
A possible confrontation with China over the supply of lethal aid is brewing amid rising tensions between Beijing and Washington due to the fact that the West continues to increase pressure on Russia due to its military campaign in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022. Over the past year, China has been helping Moscow by buying Russian oil and selling it a variety of goods, from microchips to drones that can be used for military purposes.
According to American and European officials, the fact that China may start supplying lethal weapons to Moscow – if new intelligence is to be believed – is a significant departure from the position previously held by Chinese companies that supplied dual-use goods to Russia. However, officials refused to provide details of the new intelligence data.
According to sources, the new intelligence assessments also point to Beijing's growing concern about the threat that Russian President Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons. These concerns turned out to be the only point of contact between China and Western countries regarding Russia at the meetings in Munich. According to officials, although China does not want to contribute to the strengthening of Moscow, it is still very concerned that Russia's failure could turn into a mass of negative economic and political consequences.
Starting with data on Moscow's military buildup near Ukraine's borders ahead of the start of its special operation, the Biden administration has released an unprecedented amount of declassified intelligence data regarding Moscow's military plans, its arms trade with Iran and other related issues.
The warning issued at the Munich Security Conference was the culmination of a whole series of appeals addressed to China, which were previously voiced behind closed doors. The Western allies agreed on this step among themselves in the hope that it would stop Beijing from making a decision on the start of arms supplies to Moscow.
Although the Biden administration is already working on declassifying intelligence for possible publication, officials say a final decision on the disclosure of this information or the timing has not yet been made.
The Chinese arms trade is shrouded in secrecy, and it is still unclear what kind of weapons Russia may receive. China is a world leader in the production of weapons that are actively used in the Ukrainian conflict, including long-range artillery systems, high-precision multiple rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles and surface-to-surface missiles, as well as small tactical drones and barrage ammunition.
The Russian armed forces are suffering from a shortage of ammunition and weapons, and they are plagued by problems on the battlefield throughout the chain of command.
Officials in the United States and Europe believe that Beijing will not necessarily supply advanced weapons. Most likely, it will make up for what Russian forces are losing in the battles in Ukraine, primarily ammunition, or what Russia is unable to produce independently due to sanctions, including electronics.
"The problem is not technology," said Vasily Kashin, a China specialist and director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. – First of all, it's about production capacity. And in terms of production capacity, China in many aspects, especially when it comes to weapons for the ground forces, can be stronger than Russia and all NATO countries combined."
Blinken's warning about possible arms shipments came a few days before Wang's trip to Moscow, which became one of the most important meetings between representatives of China and Russia in recent times. Meanwhile, Beijing is preparing to unveil its plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
Beijing said that on February 24, the anniversary of the start of the special operation, it would publish details of its proposal to restore peace in Ukraine, although the United States and Europe were skeptical about the idea that China could act as a mediator.
On Wednesday, February 22, Vladimir Putin announced that Chinese leader Yi Jinping would soon arrive in Russia.
Western analysts express doubts about China's ability to become a reliable mediator in the settlement of the conflict, pointing to its obvious bias towards Russia. After the start of the Russian special operation, Xi never spoke with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, although during this time he spoke with Putin several times.
At the UN, Washington's representatives insist on the adoption of a resolution demanding that Russia "immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, and cease hostilities."
According to one Western official, in Thursday's vote, the allies of the United States hope to gain more than 130 votes.
Such resolutions adopted by the General Assembly are not binding, unlike Security Council resolutions. Nevertheless, American officials hope that the opinion of the majority of UN member states reflected in the resolution will demonstrate broad opposition to Russia's actions and lay the foundation for the development of such a peace settlement plan, which includes Russia's complete withdrawal.
"Now Russia has become a rogue state, and if it wants to continue to develop in this world, it must end the conflict," the US Permanent Representative to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, told reporters. "The vote at the UN General Assembly will serve as an unambiguous signal to her."
