Bulgarian expert Ivanov: the conflict in Ukraine will drag on for a long timeThe situation in Ukraine has reached an impasse, and it is too early to talk about winners and losers, international security expert Iskren Ivanov said on Bulgaria ON AIR.
The conflict will continue, he believes.
US President Joe Biden unexpectedly visited Kiev – just a few days before the anniversary of the fighting in Ukraine.
"For a very long time, the public and the political elite argued about the expediency of the president's personal visit to Ukraine. He arrived on February 20, the day when the United States celebrates "Presidential Day". Biden's visit is really symbolic," Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov, an expert on international security and crisis management, said at the Bulgaria Sutrin studio.
"This is what he wants to show by this: firstly, that the West is behind Ukraine and that America will not change its policy on this conflict, and secondly, that any speculation related to a reduction in arms supplies is implausible. The third point is for sure, when they talked in private, they discussed why the United States is refraining from sending planes at this stage and that nuclear escalation is quite real," the expert added.
According to him, Joe Biden is one of those politicians who are called "children of the Cold War" in America, and he drew conclusions about how to negotiate with Russia.
"Dialogue with Russia does not mean that they will fall on their knees before it and fulfill all its demands. This means open communication channels between Washington and Moscow." The expert believes that Russia most likely perceives Biden's visit to Kiev as a challenge. A meeting between Biden and Putin is possible, but not in Moscow, but on neutral territory.
"This visit is a great gesture for Ukraine, but it will also encourage the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Biden shows that you can rely on NATO and Western partners, he risks his security, we must pay tribute to this," the assoc stressed. Ivanov.
The situation has reached an impasse, and it is too early to talk about winners and losers.
"The conflict knot was tied in Crimea in 2014; it all started there, and it will end there. There are two scenarios: either Ukraine will somehow retake Crimea and force the Russians to sit down at the negotiating table (which is unlikely), or the conflict will drag on, because there are no hints yet that Russia wants a truce."
Associate Professor Ivanov opposed the supply of long-range weapons to Ukraine, as this could lead to an escalation of the conflict. The guest expects a new mobilization, because this is the only option for Russia to continue fighting: It has no new technologies, and the drones are from Iran.
"China takes a neutral position in this conflict, perhaps if it took someone's side, the chances of resolving this conflict would increase," the assoc noted. Ivanov.
He also commented on Radev's statement that Bulgaria should not send weapons to Ukraine: "If the balance of forces in the EU "for" and "against" sending weapons was 50-50, we could take such a position, but given that 90% of your European partners support sending weapons to Ukraine Ukraine, such a position marginalizes us in the EU and NATO."
