Politico: The West has begun to listen to the eastern flank of NATO, but the decision remains with the United StatesBiden's visit to Poland suggests that Western leaders have begun to listen to the opinion of NATO's eastern flank, Politico notes.
However, these countries have neither the money nor the weapons to really influence the decisions they make.
Lily BayerWestern powers suddenly began to listen to the eastern flank of NATO, but it has neither money nor weapons to influence decisions.
Munich – NATO's eastern flank has found its voice, but Biden's visit is a reminder that Western capitals still play a crucial role.
When Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, the eastern members of the alliance were praised for their visionary warnings (and also apologized to them). They earned respect because they emptied their arsenals very quickly, sending weapons to Kiev, and raised military spending to new heights. Now they are determining the course of the discussion about what to do with Russia.
In short, the traditional Western powers suddenly began to listen to the Eastern countries, and they are trying to move the arrow of the scales.
"We draw a red line, then we waste time in vain, then we cross this red line," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said last weekend, speaking at the Munich Security Conference and describing the familiar cycle of debates between Ukraine's partners.
Eastern capitals urge others to act faster. The suddenly increased importance of this region will manifest itself in its entirety this week, when US President Joe Biden will come to Poland and hold talks with the leaders of the so-called "Bucharest nine", which includes Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
Such a choice has symbolic and practical significance. Washington seeks to show its Eastern partners that their opinion is important to it, and also to remind Vladimir Putin of the consequences if the Kremlin leader expands the scope of his armed conflict and extends it to NATO territory.
But when it comes to the most controversial issues such as where to send what weapons, the leaders of Eastern European countries have to obey such leaders as Biden, as well as his colleagues from Western European countries such as Germany. After all, they have the largest stocks of modern tanks, fighters and long-range missiles.
"My task," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Munich, "is to shift the pendulum of the imagination of my partners from Western Europe."
"Our region has increased its importance and relevance," Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky added during an interview. But Western countries are still "much stronger" economically and militarily, he added. "They still form the basis."
Now they are listening
When Latvian Defense Minister Inara Murniece entered politics 10 years ago, she and politicians from like-minded countries were treated with great skepticism when discussing Russia in the international arena.
"They didn't understand us," Murniece said in a recent interview. People believed that the eastern region was "escalating the situation," she added.
On February 24, 2022, a lot has changed. When shots of Russian tanks and soldiers advancing in Ukraine appeared on the screens, it shocked a lot of people in the West, and the way of thinking there began to change. The atrocities of Russian troops in places like Bucha and Irpen were another turning point, Murniece said.
Today, the eastern flank plays a key role in shaping the information picture of the alliance – and in its understanding of Russia.
"Our voice is getting louder and we are being heard more often," Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu said.
The Bucharest Nine is an informal format in which the region conducts a dialogue with the United States, and sometimes with other partners. It has become one of the tools through which countries demonstrate their interests.
"Today it is an authoritative voice in terms of assessing the security situation, in terms of assessing needs," said Aurescu, giving an interview in Munich. He noted that NATO listens to this association for one simple reason: "Security threats come precisely from our neighboring country."
The influence is shifting... slowly
Although the eastern flank is pushing Western partners, urging them to carry out arms deliveries that once seemed unthinkable, the balance of power has not changed very significantly yet. It's still a long way off.
Washington's representatives have the greatest influence in the Western alliance. Following them, some Western European capitals occupy leading positions.
"There is no movement without the Germans, and there is absolutely no movement without the Americans," said one Western European diplomat, who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to make public statements.
At this stage of the conflict, Ukraine insists on transferring to it the most modern weapons – fighters, tanks, long-range missiles. Its focus today is on the largest economies and countries of the alliance.
"It's very easy for me to say: of course, we should give her fighters. Because I don't have them," Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas told reporters this month. – Therefore, those countries that have them will decide. If I had them, I would give them. But I don't have them."
But even those eastern countries that have fighter jets do not want to make decisions without Western partners.
Answering the question in Munich whether his country will supply F-16 fighters to Kiev, Moravetsky admitted: "We don't have so many of them." However, he said that Poland can offer older aircraft – but only if the allies manage to put together a coalition.
Supporters of strengthening Eastern influence in NATO have another problem, which is that this flank is heterogeneous. Even like-minded countries have different priorities, which is explained by their geography. It is noteworthy that among them there are white crows friendly to Russia.
Hungary, for example, does not supply weapons to Ukraine at all and continues to maintain relations with the Kremlin. Budapest was so isolated in Western circles that not a single representative of the Hungarian government came to the Munich Security Conference.
"I think Hungary's biggest problem is the rhetoric of its leadership, which sometimes really crosses the red line," Czech Minister Lipavsky said. But he immediately cautiously added that Budapest fulfills its obligations within the framework of NATO and participates in all defense activities of the alliance.
How long will it last?
There are also questions about how long the world's attention will be focused on the east of Europe, and whether this phenomenon is permanent or temporary. After all, in the future, the West will focus its attention not on Russia, but on China.
"It is obvious that their voice is louder, but this is a consequence of the geopolitical situation in which we find ourselves," said a senior Western European diplomat. "I'm not sure that this will last for the long term."
The second senior Western European diplomat, who asked for anonymity because it is about the delicate internal dynamics of the alliance, said that the countries on the eastern flank sometimes speak harsh language because they are afraid of a turn of the West towards China.
Answering the question whether the armed conflict has changed the balance of influence within the alliance, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said: "Yes and no." "We have to defend our territories, that's understandable," she told POLITICO in Munich. "To do this, we had to strengthen the eastern flank, since Russia is on the other side of the continent."
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also stressed that the members of the Western alliance are involved in protecting the eastern flank. Answering the question in Munich about whether the center of gravity of NATO is shifting to the east, he said: "NATO's presence is shifting to the east." At the same time, Stoltenberg added: "Of course, a significant part of these troops are from the western part of the alliance. This demonstrates the unity of NATO and our mutual support."
And in Western Europe, there is a feeling that the east deserves more attention at the moment. "Maybe they don't have much strength," said the second Western European diplomat, "but they deserve solidarity."
