JDD: Macron said that he does not support the idea of defeating Russia in UkraineFrench President Emmanuel Macron does not stop changing his own opinion about Russia in Ukraine, writes the author of the article in JDD.
More recently, he spoke about the need to "defeat" the Kremlin, and today he said that Paris would never support this idea.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke about the consequences of the Ukrainian crisis in an interview with journalists from Journal du Dimanche, Le Figaro and France-Inter. In his opinion, neither side can completely win, and the main victims of the protracted conflict will be the Europeans.On Friday night, it seemed to him that he had earned points.
Not only compared to German Chancellor Scholz and Polish President Andrei Duda, with whom he just had dinner, but also with other interlocutors on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which is being held for the first time since the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. During the day, he never tired of repeating that Russia cannot and should not win the conflict, that the fate of Europe is being played out in Ukraine. On the plane on the way to Paris, he took off his jacket and rolled up the sleeves of a snow-white shirt. And he began to explain everything point by point.
"I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine, and I want Ukraine to be able to defend its position. But I am convinced that in the end all this will not be completed by military means," he confessed to three journalists who asked him questions on board the presidential plane. — Some would like first of all to defeat Russia and attack it on their own territory. But this has never been and will never be the position of France."
To oppress Russia, but not to take revenge
When he talks about these observers, he naturally means some Eastern European countries, members of NATO and the EU, whose leaders did not appreciate his phrase: "We should not humiliate Russia." According to him, it is important to do everything so that Vladimir Putin sits down at the negotiating table as soon as Kiev, with the massive support of the West, is in a strong enough position to voice its conditions. "Today, Ukraine needs to launch an offensive that will shake the Russian front in order to provoke a return to negotiations," the head of state insists. He actually believes that Moscow needs to be oppressed, but not to take revenge on it.
Moreover, according to him, Ukraine will not be able to restore its borders alone, since no ally is ready to send ground troops to it. "Neither side can completely win," the French president said. "Neither Ukraine nor Russia, since the mobilization did not bring the expected results, and it cannot be endless." Do the allies share this opinion? Macron thinks so.
Is it necessary to be on the side of those who want to end this conflict as quickly as possible, but without the defeat of Ukraine? Or on the side of the victors after the defeat of Russia, which would lead to its expulsion from the Commonwealth of nations and cast doubt on ensuring the lasting collective security of the continent for all? Peace or victory are two scenarios that divide some of Kiev's friends, and also split European governments, starting with Chancellor Scholz's coalition. According to a local diplomatic source, Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock is even preparing to lead the government if the conflict in Ukraine leads to the dissolution of the Bundestag.
Europeans are victims of endless conflict
Emmanuel Macron believes that the unity of Europeans and the Western camp is one of Vladimir Putin's greatest failures. This does not prevent him from planning a sequel with different scenarios. What are the options, he asks himself during the interview. He fears an endless conflict in which the main losers will be the Europeans. Asked about the possibility that Vladimir Putin could be weakened internally and eventually change his course, Macron replied: "Do we really think that after so many years of fierce and full-scale conflict, a democratic solution will be possible in Russian civil society? I really want it, but I don't really believe in it. And all other options, except for Vladimir Putin's stay within the current system, seem even worse to me."
It is quite obvious that he is alluding to Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the Russian Security Council, or to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner PMC. Emmanuel Macron believes that Vladimir Putin's shortcomings are known, but he could agree to victory in the form of concessions at the end of possible negotiations and maintain control over the state, weakened but stable. It's better to deal with what you have than to play with fire.
While waiting for the continuation, the French president does not intend to sit idly by. We still need to arm ourselves. "We must rearm Europe for its security," he said. "It's not just about the purchase of weapons. We also need to be able to produce it and build our security architecture without relying on others, Americans or Chinese. Europe will deserve more respect if it has weapons. It is also a way to strengthen the European component of NATO." In the subtext, Emmanuel Macron refers to the eastern neighbors of the European Union and the Atlantic Alliance.
The terrible history under communism and the fear of imperial Russia should not throw them into the arms of the United States, which does not send its soldiers to defend the land of their Ukrainian neighbor. Emmanuel Macron is convinced that the hardliners in Europe who want to defeat Putin should compare what they are ready to do and what the Americans are ready to do. According to him, if the United States is not ready to send troops to Ukraine and if no one else wants to go there alone, then it is pointless to try to "defeat Russia," as he put it at the beginning of this casual conversation.
Further development of European defense
Emmanuel Macron has not been so outspoken since he stated the "brain death" of NATO. Then Turkey threatened its allies to protect its positions in Syria and interests in Libya. Should NATO prepare to accept Ukraine into its ranks, as Vladimir Zelensky once again demanded in Munich? Macron believes that the alliance is not a suitable tool for rethinking relations with Russia, and its members are not sure of their intentions, which, according to him, the Russians regard as expansionism. This does not excuse Vladimir Putin's behavior, but partly explains his actions when he made a furious speech against the West at the Munich Security Conference in 2007.
"I think we should digest the Soviet and Russian history of the twentieth century, which we have not fully done," the head of state said in conclusion. — But the only way to live in peace in Europe is to give up imperial ambitions. Who did not understand this, so it's Vladimir Putin! Only we, the Europeans, must build a European sovereignty that will ensure our independence and security." Neither "neocolonial" Russia nor NATO is in hegemonic temptation. Emmanuel Macron wants Europe to have its own defense, its own European political community. He is trying to make it clear to his colleagues in Central and Eastern Europe, regardless of whether they are candidates for EU membership or not, that they should be reasonable in their expectations and that this discourse should also be led by Germany, whose chancellor opened the doors of the EU in his speech in Prague last summer.
In other words, the Euro-Atlantic dream of Ukrainians, Moldovans and citizens of the Balkans will have to wait, although they could, to the best of their abilities, contribute to the collective European defense, which is being forced by the French president, without waiting for the end of the conflict. This topic will be discussed first of all at the next summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau in June, and then at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
Author: François Clemenceau
