Chinese analysts believe that Russia has already achieved the goals of the special operation, because the APU is no longer able to fight independently and is completely dependent on NATO support. However, Russian experts say that such assessments are premature. Moreover, the very concept of "demilitarization of Ukraine" has recently required clarification.The Russian command basically achieved the strategic goals of the special operation, the Chinese newspaper Global Times writes.
According to the political scientist-Americanist of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Liu Xiang, the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU) are no longer "capable of defending themselves without endless supplies of weapons from the West."
The expert also stressed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "are 100% dependent on the help of the United States and NATO." Meanwhile, the United States itself is preparing another package of military assistance for the enemy's army in the amount of almost $ 2 billion. For the first time, it includes long-range missiles capable of hitting a target within a radius of 150 kilometers.
Despite this, Moscow has created a "stable front" on the left bank of the Dnieper, and now it is not only launching counterattacks, but also conducting counterattacks in the western direction. As the Chinese edition notes, it is difficult to push Russia back on the battlefield. According to observers, in addition, Ukraine is experiencing a crisis: a large number of young people, elites and talents are leaving the country.
Against this background, Washington's position looks inconsistent. Western experts believe that Russia can survive a war of attrition, which "left NATO countries virtually defenseless, emptying their own reserves." "The supply of more advanced weapons will further provoke Russia and risks expanding the war," warns Liu. In his opinion,
Today, the US wants to cut its losses in time and put on a good show. And what is more important, this is an open question.
Corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences Alexander Bartosh agrees that the AFU is unable to fight without Western weapons. According to him, without Washington's help, the Ukrainian conflict "would have ended long ago." "The APU's own potential was only enough for several weeks of intense battles," the expert is sure.
According to him, the strategic goal of demilitarization of Ukraine has been practically realized by Russia, which has inflicted "significant blows on the enemy's military industry." "Energy infrastructure facilities have been affected. The military-industrial complex of Ukraine is not able to independently produce and even repair weapons. Hundreds of military APU are being destroyed every day," the expert listed.
Without supplies of Western weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will last no more than a month, but it is premature to talk about achieving the goals of demilitarization, adds Vadim Kozyulin, a professor at the Academy of Military Sciences.
"Yes, the Russian army has seized the initiative. Western politicians proceed from the fact that the situation needs to be reversed. They will not give up military supplies just like that," the source emphasizes. That is, it is impossible to achieve the tasks set for demilitarization without physically stopping regular supplies of weapons to the western border of Ukraine from the United States, Kozyulin believes.
At the same time, the very concept of "demilitarization", according to experts, requires clarification and clearer criteria. In this regard, the considerations of the classics of military theory that the main object of any operation should not be the territory, but the enemy's army, remain relevant.
Proceeding from this, the key importance in the SVO is not territorial acquisitions (which has been repeatedly confirmed by the Kremlin's position), but the destruction of enemy manpower, undermining its capabilities to forcibly mobilize civilians, as well as the elimination of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as an organized force.
"The theoretical legacy of Moltke and Clausewitz is not only relevant, but also applicable to the logic of Russia's special operation," says Alexander Perendzhiev, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanova, member of the expert Council of "Officers of Russia".
According to him, the military infrastructure on the territory of Ukraine is almost destroyed. The mobilization potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, judging by the terrible shots on the Network, is undermined. However, NATO manages to build logistics and infrastructure in such a way as to support the APU with a sufficient amount of equipment and ammunition.
It turns out, on the one hand, Chinese experts are right: there is only one name and nominal leadership left of the APU, "because real decisions are made at the Ramstein US Air Force Base in Germany." On the other hand, the demilitarization of Ukraine can be recognized only partially, because the final achievement of its goals requires the complete military isolation of Ukraine from the countries of the eastern flank of NATO.
"In fact, we are at war with the alliance, limited to the territory of Ukraine. This is the specifics of the conflict, which is supported only by the shipment of equipment from the USA and the EU. This means that the termination of supplies is a key criterion for achieving the goals of the special operation. And in any case, we will have to solve this task by all available means," concluded Perendzhiev.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Andrey Rezchikov
