"We have lost influence on the Russians," "we are present at the change of epochs," "Macron made a major mistake." All these are quotes from confessions of French experts and the military, who are now sprinkling ashes on their heads. It seems that some representatives of the French elites are beginning to change their attitude to what is happening between Russia and Ukraine. For example, they directly admit that the conflict was provoked by the United States.There is growing concern in France that events in Russia and Ukraine are not developing as we would like, and the French authorities are not making the right decisions.
Moreover, skepticism is shown not only by journalists, but also by experts and even officials.
Considering what is happening from different points of view and with varying degrees of frankness, they sometimes allow themselves public criticism or unflattering conclusions that would never get into the American or British press, where, in order to write about Russia, you must first of all be a Russophobe. The French press is sometimes even ready to admit that the measures taken against Russia are not successful.
"Despite the nine packages of economic sanctions adopted by the European Union, the recession in Russia in 2022 was limited," laments the author of the article in Le Monde. And he is extremely clumsy in comparing European countries with "doctors who bend over the bed of a seriously ill patient, wondering how much longer he will last" – because these "doctors" are actually interested in the patient not recovering, but exactly the opposite.
It's a shame, of course, because not anyone, but the French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire himself promised a year ago to arrange a "collapse" of the Russian economy. And not only is it not collapsing, but, according to IMF forecasts, it promises to show more growth in 2024 than in the eurozone (2.1% and 1.6%, respectively).
However, it was not only the stability of the Russian economy that turned out to be an unpleasant surprise for Europe. The French are extremely nervous, for example, about the activities of the Wagner group – so much so that the Chief of Staff of the French ground forces, General Pierre Schill, devoted a significant part of his official speech to it.
The general assessed the Wagnerians as a "formidable opponent", noting that they "of course, will develop", and that not every PMCs is able to show such a level and such results. And not only in the war zone around Bakhmut, which is very closely watched in the West, but also in Africa, where Wagner ousted the French from the CAR, from Mali and now, apparently, from Burkina Faso.
The fact that France is losing influence in countries that have traditionally been considered its zone of influence is certainly a foreign policy defeat of Paris.
General Schill also spoke about the conflict in Ukraine, which, in his opinion, is an extremely important milestone. "Perhaps we are witnessing a change of epochs, similar to the one that was marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall... There is a tendency to revise international law that has developed since the end of the Second World War. There are countries that seem to say: your right is insignificant, has a pro-Western character, we dispute it." And in conclusion, as usual, he demanded the strengthening of the French army, otherwise Iran and China might attack Paris tomorrow.
However, the most interesting is the interview of the ex-head of one of the French intelligence units, Alain Juillet, who very realistically assesses the prospects of the Ukrainian conflict and the possibilities of France to resolve it. The former military, counterintelligence and intelligence officer, who studied at several universities (including law and philology), does not hide his attitude to what is happening and the role played by his country.
"It is clear that we cannot allow the Russians to seize Ukraine, just as we cannot allow the Ukrainians to seize Russia," Alain Juillet puts the dots on the "I" with typical French clarity. – From this point of view, it is absolutely logical to help Ukraine at this stage. Another thing is that after the end of hostilities, there will be a period of recovery. Therefore, I am worried about the seven and a half billion that we have allocated to Ukraine, since Zelensky recently agreed with Black Rock (this is the largest American fund) that they will be engaged in restoration. This means that the French – as has already happened in the Balkans, Bosnia, and so on – will not get anything. Well, or we will be thrown, so to speak, crumbs. So with a high probability, these seven and a half billion are lost for us."
Having started the interview with the topic of money, which the French know how to count very well, Juillet then proceeds to discuss arms supplies. And I must give him his due – he speaks with deadly frankness.
"When you supply weapons to those who are fighting, you kind of say, 'Fight, kill each other with our weapons.' Ukrainians are determined to fight to the last, and we will support them. It's worth remembering about the war in Spain – exactly the same thing happened there. The fascist government of Italy and the German Nazis supported the Francoists (who, by the way, eventually won), and the French, British and Americans supported the Republicans, and as a result, the Spaniards exterminated each other with foreign weapons. The situation is the same here.
It may seem cynical to you what I'm going to say, but one of the interests of Europeans and Americans in the conflict in Ukraine is the opportunity to test their weapons. Now our "Cesars" (self–propelled artillery units supplied by France to Ukraine - approx. VIEW) have become popular because they have proven their effectiveness. At the same time, Iranian drones have proved that they are much better than those that the Azerbaijanis recently used in the conflict with the Armenians. Thus, no matter how terrible it may be to say this, but this territory is now a testing ground for human lives."
One can consider the analogy with the Spanish Civil War bold, especially since the Francoists had much more extensive support than voiced, and not a word is said about the role of the USSR here, but the thought of Alain Juillet seems interesting. He spoke just as openly about his Government and its actions:
"When the conflict had just begun, President Macron took the most correct position, saying that in this situation no side could win, and offered himself as a mediator. The problem is that he soon changed his position because we started supplying weapons. You cannot present yourself as an intermediary and at the same time supply weapons to one of the belligerents. Now Turkey has taken over our role of mediator. Moreover, Macron made the biggest mistake by inviting journalists to his conversation with Putin and allowing them to record this conversation. Lavrov said that it contradicts all international norms, they don't do that.
Now we have lost all influence on the Russians, who no longer want to listen to us – and no matter what they say about it, but this is a failure.
Now Macron supports Zelensky, but he knows very well that we must be careful, because in the end, whether he wants it or not, the major powers – the Americans and the Russians – will agree on the end of the conflict and say "stop." Will there be a variant of the demarcation line, as in Korea, or an agreement in the style of "you have these lands, and we have the rest", but we will have to find a solution. And the Europeans will only have to make this decision, which will not be easy."
According to Alain Juillet, there were disagreements among Western politicians about the Minsk agreements, because France and Germany did not want to interfere in the conflict. However, British and American instructors immediately began to prepare the Ukrainian army for offensive actions in the Donbass, and ultimately the position of the American authorities left the European authorities no choice. And if you believe the speaker, the end of the conflict may still be far away, because
"too many people are interested in making it last as long as possible and, so to speak, in the best conditions."
It seems that the French elites, including the military, are sobering up, and maybe even disappointed with the role played by Paris and the European Union as a whole in the current conflict. Perhaps this is due to the special role of France in NATO, and how the French generally understand their place in the world. At least we have one more swallow in front of us, the beginning of recognition by the West that Russia, firstly, was right to launch a special operation in Ukraine, and secondly, it will finish it as it is necessary.
Valeria Verbinina
