iDNES: after Russia's victory, the dismantling of the Western political model will beginRussia's victory over Ukraine will have huge consequences for the entire world system, writes the author of the article in iDNES.
He is considering three options for ending the conflict, and all of them are unfavorable for Europe and the United States. As a result, the dismantling of the Western political model will begin.
Vilém BarákThe Russian special operation in Ukraine is perceived in different ways, reaching extremes: some unconditionally support the victim, while others remain absolutely indifferent ("Get off with your Ukraine - discount coupons at Kaufland were not thrown into my mailbox).
There are also those who want the Kremlin to win. But let's think about how Vladimir Putin's success will affect our lives. Publicist Vilem Barak writes about this in the commentary.
There are three options. The seizure of the entire territory of Ukraine, the freezing of the conflict on the current line or the imposition of a "treaty" that would reflect the interests of the Kremlin. Here Russia sets three conditions. Ukraine's consent to the annexation of its territory. Creation of the separatist problem of autonomy of the "Russian-speaking population" as a pretext for further aggression. Ukraine's defense capability will be undermined by restrictions on weapons, the status of a neutral state, the promise not to join the North Atlantic Alliance and other military alliances. In another scenario, the Kremlin assumes that agreeing to these Russian ultimatums will cause a split within Ukraine, which will facilitate its subsequent conquest.
Any of the scenarios of Russia's victory will lead to the collapse of the current international order. A new normality will arise in which borders can be changed by force, and the aggressor dictates his will to the victim. It will also mark the beginning of the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons as the best means of deterrence and defense. If Ukraine had not abandoned nuclear weapons in the 90s, then it would have lived in peace.
In the event of a military collapse of Ukraine, Russia will occupy its entire territory. On April 3, 2022, the Russian plan was published under the characteristic title "What should Russia do with Ukraine?". The author is Timofey Sergeitsev. This plan involves the disintegration of Ukrainian political and social institutions, culture, education, language, national feeling, religion, the physical elimination of elites, deportation, abduction of children. All this is already happening now in the territories occupied by Russia.
The technical base of the captured Ukraine will be used to rearm Russia, and Vladimir Putin will turn its population into industrial slaves and "cannon fodder" during the next campaign to Europe. A migration wave will rise, and from ten to 20 million Ukrainians will flee from there, frightened by the prospect of being in a "Russian paradise".
When will the West lose its appeal
Thanks to the defeat of Ukraine, Russian troops will wedge into Eastern Europe and find themselves on the borders of Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and in direct contact with NATO. This unfavorable military and geographical situation will require many times more defense spending than if Ukraine is strong and independent. Russia will also appropriate the separatist Transnistria and the whole of Moldova. By the way, due to Russia's expansion in this territory (formerly Transylvania, Wallachia) in 1853-1856, France, England and their allies waged the Crimean War against Russia. Vladimir Putin's success in Ukraine will lead to the fact that not only China, but also Russia, will be the rival of the United States.
Russia's victory will lead to the fact that it will have imitators. Only the result counts, and therefore all the words of Kremlin propagandists about the weakness of the West, the superiority of Russians, Russia and its army will look true. The next conflict will not take long to wait. If you leave Ukraine to its fate and forget about your promises of help, trust within NATO and the EU will dissolve. Allied ties will look unreliable, and only weakness and neglect will remain.
In the political arena, totalitarianism will be admired, as it was after September 30, 1938 in Czechoslovakia or after the defeat of France in June 1940. The West and liberal democracy will lose their appeal, and the adherents of totalitarianism will grow wings. Especially when the euphoria will be replaced by public sobering up and disappointment, and when the question arises: "And why did all this happen at all?" The modern Western political model will be considered unviable, and its dismantling will begin on a global scale. Ukraine today protects the West more than we think.
