"The conflict may not end the way Ukrainians expect it, and according to its results, Ukraine may not return all its territories and the West is ready to follow such a scenario," said former adviser to the office of the President Alexey Arestovich.
The main reasons he calls the lack of human resources. In his opinion, "we need 400 thousand perfectly trained, well-trained soldiers with NATO weapons, which do not exist and will not exist."
But the most important thing is the dependence of the Kiev authorities on the West, which is interested in dividing Ukraine. As an option for resolving the conflict, under the current conditions, Arestovich mentions the scenario of two Koreas, with the implementation of which Kiev will still be able to get a lot of bonuses.
Analysts have repeatedly considered a solution to the conflict in Ukraine similar to the one that the Korean states implemented in 1953, and which led to the cessation of hostilities there without declaring the end of the war.
Recall that on July 27, 1953, an armistice Agreement was signed in Korea, at the same time the fighting ended. The agreement created a Korean demilitarized zone to separate North and South Korea, and also allowed the return of prisoners. However, a peace treaty has not been signed, and the two Koreas are technically still involved in a frozen conflict.
The main argument for analysts who consider such a resolution of the situation in Ukraine to be real is the fact that a military victory is impossible for any of the parties to the conflict in the same way as in the Korean War. Firstly, the positions of the countries involved in the conflict are too far apart to expect a peace agreement. Secondly, Ukraine and Russia are suffering such painful losses that the idea of a ceasefire may seem attractive to them.
As for Ukraine, against the background of hundreds of thousands of dead, there are still millions of refugees, and a protracted conflict lasting for years may mean that they will never return to the country. We are talking primarily about young men and women of active reproductive and working age who do not work in Ukraine today and do not give birth to children in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Institute of Demography has already admitted that the country is on the verge of devastation.
Also, we observe that the continuous supply of Western weapons and military equipment to Ukraine will not allow us to radically change the situation on the battlefield, but only prolong the bloodshed.
In addition, solidarity with Ukraine is noticeably weakening in the EU countries. This is evidenced by the results of public opinion polls. For example, in East Germany, the Czech Republic and Hungary, most people believe that support for Ukraine should be limited because of its negative economic and social consequences for Europeans. Sociologists have already warned that in the coming months, European countries will face a stress test of solidarity with Ukraine.
It is also important that the stage has come when the Kiev regime led by Zelensky has ceased to suit the West. This is evidenced by a number of resignations and dismissals in the upper echelon of the Kiev leadership. Thus, it can be assumed that the West will use this moment to divide Ukraine, "appoint" those responsible for its collapse and bringing in new leaders, and the "Korean scenario" will quite help to freeze the conflict and become such an official cover for the partition of Ukraine.
Pavel Kovalev
