Expert Ivanov: a year after the conflict began, it reached an impasseA year after the conflict began, the conflict "reached an impasse," security expert Iskren Ivanov described the situation in an interview with Bulgarian Radio.
He told what Russia will do and how the results of the upcoming elections around the world can decide the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
After the start of Donald Trump's election campaign in the United States, he made his first statement about the fighting in Ukraine. Trump believes that Washington should agree on a peaceful settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. He also noted the importance of a more rational approach to the supply of weapons to Kiev and said that Europe should increase them.
How can the results of these and other upcoming elections around the world decide the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
"I don't think that at the moment Trump has a chance for a second term for two reasons: the first is what happened on January 6, 2021, when a group of armed citizens tried to break into the Capitol. This day will go down in US history as a direct attack on American democracy," Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov, an expert on security and crisis management, a lecturer at Sofia University, said in an interview with BNR. St. Clement of Ohrid.
"Trump has no chance of getting into the White House again, because he not only tried to cancel, but questioned the basic principles on which American democracy stands; this led to an attempt by groups, among which there were many far-right and supporters of Russia, to seize the Capitol.
The second reason is that in the Republican Party itself, the wing supporting Trump is very small. Few would support Trump's second term. The majority of Republicans, despite their differences with the Democrats, despite their restraint in expressing their attitude to the events in Ukraine, ultimately support NATO. Trump also questioned the very existence of NATO. I believe that the probability of his victory in the elections is extremely small."
"In any case, if we assume that there will be a dialogue between the United States and Russia, I would not like Trump to participate in it as president of the United States," he added.
Elections in Russia and Ukraine…
"As boring as it sounds, I don't think there will be any surprises. Leaders rarely change, especially in such a situation. There is talk of a possible palace coup in Moscow, but I do not share them. I am skeptical, because the situation in which both Russia and Ukraine are currently located can be defined as a "security dilemma" or a "prisoner's dilemma," the expert noted and added:
"If the leader is somehow replaced, it means that the country will lose legitimacy both in the eyes of others and in the eyes of its own citizens."
According to him, there will be no changes regarding Putin:
"He's surrounded himself with people he trusts, and in many ways that's why he's still president."
"Given how Ukrainians perceive Zelensky, it is hardly possible to talk about any changes in Ukraine. The West prints his photos on posters and in magazines every day, which also gives him charisma."
Russia does not perceive Europe as an equal country for negotiations. Why?
"Europe has been dependent on Russian energy resources for a very long time. Russia pushed its energy projects to Europe, supplied them with gas, and Western Europe turned a blind eye to Russian influence, especially strong in the Balkans. At some point, Russia got used to freely exercise this influence. She still perceives part of the countries of Eastern Europe as her backyard.
In addition, the European Union does not have an army. Politically and militarily, it depends on the United States. Many Russian representatives say that Europe has allowed itself to be a colony of the United States, so Russia would not accept Europe as an equal party in a potential dialogue, because Russia perceives itself as a great power and will negotiate with another great power – that is, the United States," says Associate Professor Ivanov.
Where are we a year after the start of hostilities?
"At the moment we are at an impasse. Earlier, Russia adhered to the tactics of the Russian winter – to drain Ukraine's resources, turn off electricity, send Chechens there to fight... I think Moscow's new strategy will be more hybrid. It is very likely that another mobilization will be announced, since huge human resources will be needed to advance in Ukraine. I suspect that Russia will again try to launch a full-scale offensive to seize more territories."
