Country: EU – Ukraine summit ended with promisesAt the EU–Ukraine summit, they talked about the approximate dates of Ukraine's accession to the European Union and, what is closer to reality, concrete assessments of Kiev's fulfillment of the criteria of a candidate for membership of the bloc, writes Strana.
Despite Zelensky's optimistic statements, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von Leyen, did not give any forecasts.
Denis RafalskyAt the 24th summit of Ukraine and the European Union, held in Kiev on February 3, the Ukrainian leadership was assured that the country would definitely become a member of the EU - only it is unclear when.
What is hidden behind the statements of European officials, the "Country" understood.
Europe extends liberalization
In fact, there were two large events with the participation of high-ranking officials of Ukraine and the EU. The day before the summit, consultations of the Ukrainian government with the Board of the European Commission were held, which were opened by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal and President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
For the Ukrainian Prime Minister, of course, it was an opportunity to list the achievements in relations between Kiev and the European Union with an emphasis on the work of the Cabinet of Ministers over the past year. In particular, Shmygal noted Ukraine's accession to ENTSO-E (the European network of electricity transmission system operators, which made it possible, among other things, to compensate for losses in energy supply), the abolition of quotas and duties on Ukrainian goods by the European Union for a year, the liberalization of road transport (the receipt of permanent export permits was canceled, which made it easier to cross borders with EU countries), a customs visa-free regime (or a joint transit regime (NCTS), which provides for the exchange of data by customs officers of different countries through a single electronic declaration), Kiev's accession to the Digital Europe program (this is financing for the digitalization of the country and rapprochement with the EU Single Digital Market), and, of course, Ukraine's obtaining the status of the candidate for the membership of the bloc, however, still needs to be confirmed by the fulfillment of the 7 conditions of the EC, which are described below.
According to Shmygal, the Ukrainian side hopes that the regimes of temporary liberalization of trade and transportation will be extended. It looks like they will do it again for a year, as they said on the sidelines of the meeting. This desire of the EU to help may hide the understanding of European officials that the conflict with Russia, causing huge damage to the Ukrainian economy, will continue for at least the specified time.
Shmygal also mentioned some plans for further rapprochement with the EU. In particular, he said that Kiev will begin to prepare a National program for adapting Ukrainian legislation to European legislation, in which the EU will provide assistance. Actually, this work has already begun: Kiev has been provided with an analytical report on its achievements in the implementation of EU law.
As for the realities of today, the prime minister said that Kiev hopes for additional assistance from the European Union in restoring and transforming the energy sector through its "decentralization", and in the meantime asks to increase electricity imports to 2 GW. This, according to official information, will halve its deficit, formed due to Russian shelling. Also, the Cabinet of Ministers hopes to agree on permanent free roaming between Ukraine and the EU (this benefit was introduced temporarily due to the conflict and recently extended for another six months).
Terms of reports and negotiations
Around the EU–Ukraine summit itself, there is usually more talk about politics than about the economy. And the main questions are, of course, about at least the approximate dates of Ukraine's accession to the European Union and, which is closer to reality, specific assessments of Kiev's fulfillment of 7 criteria for a candidate for membership of the bloc. As the "Country" wrote, in June last year, the EU member states agreed "in advance" to grant Ukraine a candidacy on the condition that it implements 7 recommendations of the European Commission.
At the summit, President Zelensky said that Ukraine is completing the fulfillment of 7 conditions of the EC. "Our goal is absolutely clear: the start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the European Union [this year]. And I believe that the EU will be ready for negotiations on Ukraine's accession this year," the President stressed. At the same time, Zelensky said that Ukraine expects "this spring" the interim conclusions of the European Commission on its progress in working on the "candidate" criteria. "I am sure that what Ukraine has achieved deserves a positive assessment," the Ukrainian leader said.
Here it must be said that the term until spring wandered from one speech to the speech of high-ranking officials of Ukraine. To be more precise, Kiev would like to receive an official public assessment in April. The approval of the EU, which, by the way, Ze is convinced of, can, among other things, be recorded by the government team in their political victories (and parliamentary elections are scheduled for this year, which will take place if the conflict ends). But in case of shortcomings, the Ukrainian leadership will still have time until the fall to work on the mistakes.
However, von der Leyen, speaking at a press conference dedicated to the Swedish presidency of the EU, said that detailed conclusions on Ukraine will be in October in the so-called "expansion package", where they will assess the work done by all candidate countries of the bloc. And in the spring they will tell how Ukraine copes with the tasks, only to EU member states and allegedly only orally. She repeated this thesis to journalists in Kiev.
At the same time, the final declaration of the Kiev summit states: "The EU confirmed that the commission was asked to provide a report on the fulfillment of the conditions noted in the commission's conclusions regarding Ukraine's membership application, as part of its regular expansion package in 2023. Without prejudice to this comprehensive regular reporting, we take into account the commission's intention to provide updated information in the spring of 2023, which will also be transmitted to Ukraine through appropriate channels."
Sources of the "Country" close to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine believe that Kiev has "passed" European officials on this issue and should receive a written report on the quality of implementation of the reforms launched from the EU. This means that after the publication of the autumn general report, it will be possible to start negotiations on the accession itself. However, the paragraph in the said declaration can also be understood in such a way that the EC will certainly draw certain conclusions from what Ukraine has done and will inform, among other things, its leadership in the spring (only in writing?). But, as we can see, the Ukrainian leaders insist on receiving a direct response from the EC. We have already written about one of the reasons (elections). The second possible reason is the desire to get something like a schedule for joining the block. It is no coincidence that Zelensky proposed to coordinate an algorithm of joint actions with the EU, "so as not to lose a single day in the rapprochement of Ukraine and the European Union."
But the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and EC President Ursula von der Leyen, paying compliments to Ukraine and Ukrainians, promising comprehensive EU assistance in the conflict with Russia and Ukraine's future in the union, carefully avoided the issues of the terms of accession and even the beginning of substantive negotiations on this. So, von der Leyen, at a joint meeting with Zelensky and Shmigal, called Ukraine a place where "our freedom is protected (in the sense of the EU. – Ed.), where the future of Europe is being written now." "We want to write this future together with you," she said. "Europe will walk alongside you for as long as it takes. Until the day when the Ukrainian flag will be raised where it belongs: next to the Berlemont building in Brussels, in the heart of the European Union," the EC president said.
But at a press conference with Zelensky and Michel, she, answering a question about the possible date of Ukraine's accession, said that "there is no clear time frame, but there are goals that a candidate member needs to achieve," after which "accession negotiations and the accession itself begin." Although Kiev, in her opinion, shows good results. It is characteristic that the final declaration of the summit recognizes Kiev's "significant efforts" in this regard. As The New York Times wrote after the summit, Ukrainian diplomats and a support group within the EU tried to replace "efforts" with "progress", but failed. It will be possible to talk about progress, among other things, if Ukraine takes a course on "comprehensive and consistent implementation of judicial reform in accordance with the recommendations of the Venice Commission, including the reform of the Constitutional Court and the procedure for selecting qualified judges of the Constitutional Court."
We wrote that the government team went against the urgent advice of Western diplomats in the history of the law on the selection of judges of the Constitutional Court, without giving a decisive vote to international and foreign experts. Presumably, the West hoped to use such a procedure to update the composition of the Constitutional Court at its discretion, which would make it possible to finally formalize control over the entire judicial branch of government in Ukraine. VK recommended listening to Western wishes and rewriting the law. Judging by the insistence of the Soviets, the Ukrainian authorities will not be able to avoid this (unless, of course, they want to slow down European integration).
On the other hand, the EU welcomed "progress in ensuring the independent and effective work of anti-corruption institutions and the harmonization of media legislation of Ukraine with EU legislation on audiovisual media services." This is despite the fact that the new media law has caused serious criticism in the journalistic community of Ukraine and Europe itself. In addition, Ukraine and the EU confirmed their "commitment to full respect for the rights of persons belonging to [national] minorities, as enshrined in the UN and Council of Europe conventions and relevant protocols." Kiev promised to continue consultations and cooperate in this matter with the VC and the national minorities themselves. However, the adopted law, as the "Country" wrote, did not remove the contradictions, for example, with Hungary and Romania. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not show any desire to soften the policy towards national minorities.
The main problem of the conflict
However, even if Ukraine fulfills all the EU conditions, including possibly new ones, there remains one and, in fact, the main obstacle on the way to the European Union - the conflict. So far, it is being delayed, and at the same time, accession to the EU is also moving away. "Of course, no one will accept a country with ongoing hostilities and even a frozen conflict - especially with territorial disputes - into the EU," political analyst Vadim Karasev comments to the Country. In his opinion, the formula "assistance without membership" can be "optimal" not only for the EU, but also for NATO, with whose member countries - primarily the United States, Kiev is already building "strong allied relations".
Moreover, according to Karasev, this form of relationship may well suit the country's leadership. "It seems to me that our government is not really pedaling the issue of joining both unions. Membership there means, of course, preferences, but also obligations. And the EU will help anyway, setting really not too strict requirements. And the United States, too," he comments. In addition, the expert believes, many Ukrainians have already seen what life really is like there because of moving to the EU countries. "There are no longer the old expectations of earthly paradise. We can say that Europe has already ceased to be the civil religion of Ukraine. Euroteleology is leaving. And the authorities feel a change of mood. There comes a new idea of an Eastern European outpost that lives with the EU and NATO in a civil marriage. There are fewer obligations, the distance remains - it's easier to disperse," says Karasev.
In turn, political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that today Ukraine is "definitely part of the Western world." "The summit in Kiev only confirmed that in socio-political, economic, technological terms, Ukraine is a continuation of the EU, but not part of it," Bortnik said in a comment to the Country. At the same time, the summit showed that "the limit of cooperation has been reached" in relations between Kiev and the EU. "There are few issues that the parties can still deal with without being able to solve the main problems - the collapse of the economy and the conflict. It is necessary, in theory, to proceed to the stage of Ukraine's membership, but it seems that the EU is not really ready for this step. The block has no experience in solving a problem of the scale of the Ukrainian one. The Greek crisis, with its very different nature, has been feverish for the EU for almost a decade. And Ukraine will need completely different money," political analyst Bortnik comments.
