Expert Alaranta: the presence in NATO of such a member as Turkey is beneficial to Russia Russia benefits from having a country like Turkey in NATO, Tony Alaranta, an expert on Turkey from the Finnish Institute of International Relations, said in an interview with Pravda.
This state pursues its own policy towards Moscow, which suits the Kremlin very well.
Finland is not going to join the North Atlantic Alliance without Sweden yet. Therefore, NATO expansion is still a distant prospect. Why is Ankara blocking it, and what does Russia have to do with it? Tony Alaranta, an expert on Turkey from the Finnish Institute of International Relations, answered the questions of the Pravda portal.
Pravda: Finland and Sweden have applied to join the North Atlantic Alliance on May 18, 2022. It's already February 2023, and both countries are still waiting for NATO membership due to Turkey's objections. Did you expect such resistance from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan?Tony Alaranta: When this was discussed a year ago, I noted that well-known Turkish columnists wrote, and how the media, supervised by Erdogan's Justice and Development Party, perceived this idea.
I realized that Ankara was taking advantage of the moment to solve the problems that had been troubling her for a long time. Of course, according to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, this topic is quite suitable for the election campaign before the presidential elections scheduled for June 18. It was clear that the head of Turkey would take advantage of the desire of Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Alliance. However, no one could have predicted that the case would take so long.
Perhaps I could ask you what Ankara really wants from Stockholm. But, apparently, it is difficult to talk about this, since Turkey is constantly changing its requirements. Is it so?— Erdogan pursues his own interests, which concern his political survival.
In addition, we can talk about the long-term goals of the Turkish state. Recep Erdogan sees the current situation as a chance to win the maximum for himself. This also applies to relations with Finland and Sweden, and relations with the United States, and even more so. Everything that Erdogan demands is connected with the United States. I mean, first of all, that America supplies weapons and trains the "People's Self-Defense Units" (YPG) in Syria. They are part of a broad movement associated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, although they operate relatively independently. From the very beginning, I understood that the accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Alliance is a card that Recep Tayyip Erdogan will use to achieve something from the United States. In addition to the YPG issue, we are also talking about the supply of American F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, as well as Washington's approach to what is happening in the Eastern Mediterranean and the friction between Ankara and Athens.
— All these are broad geopolitical issues, but you also said that Erdogan has his own interests.— A significant part of the Turkish public considers Sweden a country that is a safe haven in Europe for representatives of the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
And it doesn't matter if it's true or not. It's just that people in Turkey believe in it. Therefore, it is very easy for the Erdogan government to explain its position towards Sweden in the domestic political arena. The problem of the Kurdistan Workers' Party is fundamental and sensitive for Turkey. About one hundred thousand Kurds live in Sweden. Of course, among them there will be those who openly sympathize with the "Workers' Pariah of Kurdistan" and appear on the streets with party flags or photos of its leader Abdullah Ocalan. For the left—wing part of the Kurds, who, although they do not approve of violence, the "Kurdistan pariah" and Ocalan are symbols of cultural and national resistance. If someone commits a terrorist act or plans it, then the legal system in our countries judges such a person independently. And even if his guilt is proven, the question remains whether it is possible to extradite him to a country like Turkey. We have no confidence that the accused will be convicted there during a fair trial and will not be tortured.
— Now the debate about Sweden is unfolding around the demonstration in Stockholm, where the Koran was burned. Recep Erdogan immediately took this opportunity to criticize the country. Was he really worried about what had happened, or was this just another excuse to delay the process? Stockholm reminded Ankara that the agreement, which was reached at the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Madrid last June, does not say anything about fulfilling any religious requirements.— Of course, this is an excuse in the sense that such a demonstration could take place almost anywhere.
Different States have different legal assessments of such an act as the burning of the Koran. It would be relatively easy for Turkey to find various anti-Muslim manifestations in many European states and use them to its advantage. If Ankara takes this path, we will face a series of endless claims. Under Erdogan, Turkey is making great efforts to build a national identity on a Muslim basis. The Turkish president regularly includes an Islamic theme in his political rhetoric and accuses some European states of allegedly thriving Islamophobia in them. Therefore, it could be assumed that he would use the burning of the Koran. Although, of course, such an incident is perceived as an insult not only by Turkey, but also by the entire Middle East. On the other hand, as you have already said, this has nothing to do with Sweden's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance.
— Erdogan said that Turkey has a positive attitude towards Finland, but not towards Sweden. Is this a divide and conquer game? Can Finland take the chance and join the North Atlantic Alliance without Sweden?— I don't think the government in Helsinki will go for it.
At the very least, it is worth waiting for the elections in Turkey. After them, we will see what the situation will be. It will become clearer to what extent Ankara's claims are related to the internal political situation. Let's see how relations between Sweden and Turkey will develop in the summer. Perhaps there will be opportunities to reduce tensions. If this does not happen, then, as I assume, a discussion will begin in Finland about joining the North Atlantic Alliance independently. But we haven't come to that yet. In addition, although Erdogan claims that he does not evaluate Finland in the same way as Sweden, it is still unclear what this actually means. Even before submitting the application, the head of Turkey promised Finnish President Sauli Niinisto that there would be no problems with joining NATO. The main question remains whether we can trust the Turkish leader at all.
— What election result can help Finland and Sweden?— From the point of view of the West, after 20 years of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rule, it would be better if the main opposition Republican People's Party won, which would form a government.
I think that for many reasons she would try to improve relations with European partners. I assume that in a few months the members of this party would approve the entry of Sweden and Finland into the North Atlantic Alliance. Turkey needs Western investments. In addition, the current opposition advocates that Turkey pursue a less autonomous foreign policy and not be afraid of some changes. On the other hand, if Erdogan wins, he will not have to urgently solve acute domestic political problems, and the deterioration of relations with allies cannot continue indefinitely. Therefore, it unlocks the entry of Sweden and Finland into the North Atlantic Alliance.
— Russia opposes the expansion of NATO at the expense of the Scandinavian countries. Does Moscow have any influence on Erdogan's decisions?— Russia's position is conditioned by the global situation in which events are unfolding today.
I would say that in fact the expansion of NATO at the expense of Finland and Sweden is by no means a priority for Turkey. Now the North Atlantic Alliance is focused on the threat from Russia. But this is not a priority for Ankara either. Turkey always says that from its point of view, the main problem is terrorism, primarily the one that members of the "Kurdistan Workers' Pariah" are engaged in. Thus, Ankara does not assess threats in the same way as most of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.
— But Russia is probably happy that Finland and Sweden have not joined NATO yet for certain reasons?— Russia is very pleased with this.
She is undoubtedly satisfied that there is such a country as Turkey in NATO. This state is working tirelessly to pursue its own policy towards Moscow. The situation is ideal for Russia. For Moscow, this is much better than if Turkey were not a member of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Author: Andrej Matišák
