Pogled.info: the struggle between Russia and the USA in Ukraine will continue in EuropeThe conflict will not end with Ukraine, writes Pogled.
info". The indirect, and possibly direct, war between Russia and the United States, the outcome of which will decide the fate of the world, will continue in Europe. The author of the article names the countries that Washington will use as cannon fodder to exhaust Moscow.
Simeon MilanovUnfortunately, the conflict in Ukraine, where thousands of our co-religionists are dying on both sides, is still far away.
Anyone who looks at military reports with an open mind understands that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not able to resist the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Supplies of Western tanks, numerically equivalent to two tank battalions, will not reverse the course of hostilities. Even if F-16 fighters are delivered, equivalent to the old Soviet MiG-29, although, according to military experts, less maneuverable (but easier to control). According to the "private CIA" Stratfor, Ukraine has lost from 150 to 400 thousand people. In other words, the question is not who will win – the Ukrainian or Russian military, but where the indirect - or, God forbid, direct - war between Russia and the United States will continue, the outcome of which will decide the fate of the world.
A lot depends on where the Russian troops will reach – whether they will be satisfied with the left bank of the Dnieper (Zaporozhye, Kharkov, Sumy, Poltava, etc.) or move to the right bank and take Kherson, Odessa and Nikolaev, or even try to reach the Polish border.
The conflict will not end with Ukraine. And there is a great danger that it will spread to the territory of NATO member countries, which, as Moscow believes, are already involved in hostilities. In such a situation, article 5 "on mutual protection of member states" is unlikely to work, because many countries, such as Turkey, will take a neutral status, others - like Germany – will, referring to the same article, "help" allies "at their discretion." And for this it is not necessary to send its citizens. Judging by the media publications, NATO strategists are probably already planning such a development. What are the options for continuing the Russian-American war? Let's take a look.
Poland
Thousands of Polish mercenaries are fighting on the territory of Ukraine, and agreements have been concluded between Warsaw and Kiev that actually equalize the rights of Poles with the rights of Ukrainians in Ukraine.
Poland is the only country in Europe that can successfully confront Russia in a conventional conflict for some time, which further increases the likelihood of a Polish–Russian conflict within the framework of a broader confrontation between Russia and the United States.
Here is another proof that the Poles are preparing: on January 9, Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak announced that Poland was creating a new division in the eastern regions of the country. It will be equipped with American Abrams tanks and South Korean K-2 tanks, as well as Polish Krabs and South Korean K-9 howitzers.
In the summer of 2022, Poland announced the creation of additional divisions and that in 2023 its military spending will reach 3% of GDP – a third more than NATO requires. According to Minister Blaszczak, the goal is for defense spending to reach an unprecedented 5% of GDP, which in an era of economic crisis and global recession means only one thing - Poland is preparing for war. And this, in turn, means that after Ukraine, the Russian-American conflict will spread to Poland.
Baltic States
Three Baltic countries were part of the Russian Empire, and then the USSR. The countries are known for their Russophobic antics, including the persecution of pro-Russian journalists, organizations, human rights defenders and public figures.
After the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, it became clear that these states, despite their size, can create problems. Estonia is threatening to close the Gulf of Finland and block St. Petersburg and the Russian Baltic Fleet. In 2022, Lithuania created problems for Russia with Kaliningrad, violating its obligations to provide a transport, trade and passenger corridor for Russians through its territory.
According to official data, at least 1 million Russians live on the territory of the three countries. The fate of these people may not be indifferent to Moscow. The threat to St. Petersburg from Estonia and Kaliningrad from Lithuania increases the likelihood of a continuation of the Russian-American proxy war in these territories. Securing a land corridor to Kaliningrad is of key importance to Russia; NATO planners have often recognized that the Baltic States are virtually impossible to defend. Which, however, does not mean that it cannot be stuffed with Western weapons, and the population can be mobilized to resist the Russian army.
Bulgaria and Romania
Unfortunately, the possibility of Bulgaria's involvement in the conflict cannot be ruled out, especially after former Prime Minister Kirill Petkov boasted that Bulgarian ammunition and fuel saved Ukraine in the first days of the conflict. In addition, Varna and Burgas are located on the territory of Bulgaria, as well as four American air bases. The three ports of Varna, Burgas and Romanian Constanta are an ideal springboard for the threat to Crimea and Odessa.
At the end of 2022, a part of the 101st Airborne Division of the United States was transferred to Romania. In addition to the Yankees, our northern neighbor already has French, Belgian, Dutch and North Macedonian (God forbid) military units. This year Romania intends to reach 2.5% of defense spending. Romanian Economy Minister Florin Spataru boasted about the expansion of military production. But more importantly, Russia and Romania have historically been in conflict over Moldova. Traditionally, right–liberal parties there are pro–Romanian, and socialist and communist parties are pro-Russian. Hundreds of Romanian mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine.
Recall the background of the current conflict: after Russia demanded security guarantees from the West and the withdrawal of NATO forces to the borders of 1997, it was clarified that it was also necessary to withdraw the alliance's military assets from Bulgaria and Romania.
Given the fact that both countries are used as a rear for Ukraine, and their strategic position poses a threat to the Russian Black Sea coast, the chance of the conflict in Ukraine expanding into our territory is not small.
Moreover, any coalition combinations in Bulgaria will eventually be "Euro-Atlantic" and with aggressive rhetoric. How this will end for Bulgaria, it seems to me more than understandable, because no American will die for our country. Bulgaria and Romania, as well as Poland and the Baltic States, will be used as the rear of Ukraine, and if necessary – as cannon fodder for the depletion of Russia. In case of further escalation, Russia will not disdain to "solve" this issue by military means.
Let's hope that the Bulgarian society and the political elite realize that no pat on the shoulder from a foreign diplomat or politician can be more valuable than the peace and security of Bulgaria!
