Al Jazeera: Sweden's fate in NATO will be decided after the elections in TurkeySweden has not fulfilled its obligations to Turkey in the fight against terrorism and encourages Islamophobic provocations, the Al Jazeera website reports.
It is not surprising that Ankara postponed consideration of Stockholm's application to join NATO indefinitely. But for his ally, the doors of the alliance have remained ajar for now.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not rule out that he might make a different decision regarding Finland's application to join NATO, which should "shock" Sweden.
Trilateral Memorandum
Due to the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict and the high probability of its spread to other countries, Sweden and Finland have changed their policy of neutrality and applied to join NATO. And since the inclusion of new countries in the alliance requires the unanimous approval of all its members, Helsinki and Stockholm faced objections from Hungary and Turkey.
Ankara did not support the membership of Finland and Sweden in NATO due to the fact that, according to her, these countries have become a "nest" for terrorist organizations that collect supporters and funds for the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Gulen Movement and others. Helsinki and Stockholm have also imposed an arms export embargo on Turkey due to its military operations in Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Turkey insists that NATO is an organization created to ensure collective security, and therefore it is unacceptable that some of its members support terrorist organizations that threaten others. Therefore, Ankara vetoed the membership of Stockholm and Helsinki, unless they "refuse to support terrorist organizations and cooperate with Turkey."
In June 2022, the leaders of Turkey, Sweden and Finland held a meeting in Madrid under the auspices of Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. At this meeting, they agreed on a trilateral memorandum on the prospects of the Scandinavian countries joining NATO. Ankara lifted its veto on the accession of Stockholm and Helsinki to the alliance in exchange for their "full support in matters of national security." Sweden and Finland have pledged not to provide any support to organizations that Turkey classifies as terrorist, such as the PKK, SDF and others.
According to the memorandum, both countries pledged to ban the activities of the PKK and any organizations or bodies associated with it, and initiate investigations into fundraising and recruiting supporters. They also agreed to amend their legislation, extradite terrorism suspects to Turkey and lift the arms embargo.
Ankara linked its approval of the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO with a memorandum of understanding, and the current period is a test of the degree of commitment of these countries to what they signed. After that, the visits of delegations and meetings between the three States continued. At the end of last year, Sweden handed over to Turkey the first person convicted of membership in the PKK.
NATO and the United States exerted strong pressure on Ankara. Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Sweden and Finland have significantly strengthened cooperation with Turkey, so there is no reason to postpone their entry into the alliance. Ankara, in turn, monitors the fulfillment of their obligations to join NATO and expects amendments to the constitution, stressing that "any step by Sweden and Finland will not be ignored."
Veto
Sweden and Finland hoped for a positive position of Turkey in the process of joining NATO, especially in connection with the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the increased risk of its spread to other countries. But the new year brought unexpected tension and negative news, particularly for Stockholm.
In mid-January, PKK supporters organized a demonstration in Stockholm. They hung upside down a doll depicting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey reacted sharply to this provocation. In addition to summoning the Swedish Ambassador and the statement of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, Parliament Speaker Mustafa Shentop canceled the planned visit of his Swedish counterpart Andreas Norlen in protest against the Swedish authorities allowing such an action.
The Swedish government condemned the incident, and Prime Minister Ulf Christerson criticized the demonstration of PKK supporters, which, according to him, undermines the state's efforts to join NATO. But everything was repeated in a more provocative format.
On January 21, that is, just a few days after the aforementioned demonstration, the Swedish authorities allowed an ultra-right politician from Denmark, who has Swedish citizenship, to burn the Holy Koran in front of the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm. Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn said that the Danish politician's action "encourages hate crimes and Islamophobia."
Ankara's reaction was not long in coming. The government postponed indefinitely negotiations with Sweden and Finland on joining NATO, and the Turkish Defense Minister canceled the visit of his Swedish counterpart to the country. Erdogan sharply criticized the incident and said that Sweden "should not wait for support for its application to NATO."
The path of Sweden's accession to NATO will be thorny. Everything depends on the approval of her application by the Turkish parliament, which is currently busy passing the necessary bills before the upcoming elections. There was not much time, but it became even less when the election date was moved from June to May 14, 2023.
All of the above makes it almost impossible for Turkey to agree to Sweden's accession to NATO. The time provided is not enough, but it's not just that. The Turkish public is angry after the incident with the burning of the Holy Koran. It is unlikely that the government will make such a decision before the elections, as well as the fact that Stockholm will change in this short time. In addition, there are rumors about an attempt by the US Congress to link the file on the accession of Sweden and Finland to the deal on F-16 fighters.
Accordingly, Sweden's entry into the alliance was under threat and now depends to some extent on the new Turkish parliament. No one can predict — let alone know for sure — its composition and orientation. Also, if Erdogan wins the upcoming elections, he will have a stronger position in this file than before the elections.
And since both countries have submitted applications together, it is likely that their consideration will be postponed until the elections in Turkey, although everything suggests that Finland still has chances, unlike Sweden.
Helsinki has repeatedly stated its desire to join NATO, even after Erdogan's aforementioned statement. Turkey, in turn, said it could make a decision on Finland's membership, which would "shock" Sweden. It is obvious that such a position will save Ankara from additional pressure from NATO and the United States, as it will confirm its commitment to the expansion of the alliance.
Ankara may not take this step if Finland or NATO does not ask it. In this regard, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Ankara had not received an official proposal on the separate admission of countries to the alliance. Erdogan's spokesman Ibrahim Kalyn confirmed that his country is ready to consider Finland's application to join NATO separately from Sweden's application, if necessary.
Thus, Ankara closed the door of NATO to Sweden, but left it ajar for Finland, which still retains chances of joining the alliance before the elections in Turkey.
Author: Saeed al-Hajj (A) (A) (A) (A) (a)
