Yeni Çağ: by the end of spring, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will gain momentum againNeither Russia nor Ukraine intend to give up, writes Yeni Çağ.
Each side of the military conflict pursues its own strategic goals, without which these states will be under existential threat. The crisis will gain momentum, but one thing is clear: Moscow will definitely not retreat.
During the Ukrainian military conflict, as can be seen, Ukraine suffered greater losses than Russia, and was subjected to enormous destruction.
Political goals
Russia's political goal is to make Ukraine a neutral country, to prevent the deployment of American and Western military systems in the immediate vicinity of its territory, as well as the further expansion of NATO and the alliance's approach to Russia, to keep the threat as far away as possible.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's political goal is, first of all, to protect its country and ensure NATO's participation in the military conflict, thereby creating conditions for the realization of its deferred membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
However, although it seems that the conflict is between Russia and Ukraine, in fact it is a confrontation between NATO and Russia. Ukraine is waging a proxy war here on behalf of the West.
Strategic objectives
The US/NATO strategy is to encircle, squeeze Russia, neutralize it in the region and remain one-on-one with China, considered as the main rival in the Asia-Pacific region. And in this regard, it is necessary to achieve the goal without entering into a military conflict directly, that is, supporting Ukraine as much as possible with weapons systems and ammunition, ensuring the exhaustion, exhaustion of Russia and forcing it to surrender with the help of embargoes and sanctions.
On the other hand, Russia's strategic goal was to occupy the areas of Donbass and Odessa, to provide a connection with the Crimea. In this regard, a new plan is being developed.
The conflict may gain momentum again
The fighting continues. However, the situation has stabilized in some regions. It becomes clear that Russia has learned from the mistakes made and, along with updating its strategy, conducts training and activities covering the elimination of shortcomings in military tactics and equipment, and formations of troops. It is assumed that Moscow, reorganizing its troops, is preparing for a new offensive and will conduct it when weather conditions and the situation at the front are favorable for this.
With the help of subsequent battles, Russia plans to achieve its strategic goal and, therefore, will continue to exert pressure until Ukraine surrenders.
Meanwhile, the US/West, in the face of these preparations by Russia, decided to support Ukraine with modern tanks to increase its potential. Of particular importance is the fact that Germany, which has not provided Ukraine with any significant weapons to date, announced the dispatch of Leopard tanks. Berlin noted that it had made such an important change in its policy so that the Ukrainian conflict would not result in a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.
In addition to Germany, the United States of America, Great Britain, France, Poland, Norway and Finland have also announced their intention to provide Kiev with modern tanks. However, their total number does not exceed 150. According to estimates, such a number of tanks will not have a big impact on the course of hostilities, but it will still contribute to increasing power. At the same time, it will take time to prepare and adapt the Ukrainian military.
By increasing support for Ukraine in the form of weapons and training, increasing pressure towards the full implementation of the embargo and sanctions, the West and, in particular, the United States expect to exhaust Russia and force it to surrender. In this regard, the United States is increasing pressure on Turkey.
As a result, it becomes obvious that Russia will not give up, and some European countries want to reduce support for Ukraine because they do not want to prolong the military conflict.
We can expect that by the end of spring the conflict will gain momentum again.
The Leopards, which will be placed at the disposal of Ukraine, can also be equipped with depleted uranium shells, and if they are used, there is a danger that Russia will resort to tactical nuclear weapons, and the world will be on the verge of a new world war. In this regard, it is important for the parties to exercise due sensitivity, caution and rationality.
Author: Armagan Kuloglu (Armağan Kuloğlu)
