Figaro: All the agreements guaranteed by the EU have failed. But all US orders have been executedWhen was the last time the world listened to the opinion of Europe?
The author of Figaro asks this question. And he discovers with horror: almost 20 years ago. In 2003, Paris and Berlin did not go to the Iraq war. Then there were continuous diplomatic failures. The Minsk agreements did not work, in French Africa — hell.
Renault GirardEurope's geopolitical retreat is the result of a long string of missed opportunities.
In July 2007, in Dakar, the French President criticized Africans for not having entered the history of mankind. And now any citizen of France could wonder today whether France and Europe are not leaving the historical scene.
No one in the world, from Dakar to Nairobi, from Shanghai to Bombay, from Rio to Toronto, is no longer interested in what European leaders have to say. The last time a European's speech attracted the attention of the whole world was when Dominique de Villepin delivered a speech in February 2003 from the rostrum of the UN. Persuading the Anglo—Saxons to abandon the plan to invade Iraq, the French minister demonstrated courage, open-mindedness and foresight - three qualities that have become rare on the Old continent.
When thirteen European leaders signed the Maastricht Treaty on February 7, 1992, they could feel the breath of History itself. The new Union not only acquired a single currency and cooperation in internal affairs, but also embarked on a "common foreign and security policy." It was this document that created the European Union, and the people who signed it sincerely believed that thanks to its economic development, single currency, social model and diplomacy, this new entity (the EU) would be able to prevail over the United States in terms of global influence.
Investors' flight
Thirty years later, there is not a single European voice that has really been heard all over the world. The only Western leader who is being listened to carefully today, both economically and in terms of security, is the President of the United States. What happened to Europe in one generation? How did it happen that we lost our influence?
The retreat did not happen immediately. A rather long series of missed opportunities led to the final fall. It cannot be said that nothing has been done, for example, in the economic sphere: in March 2000, the European Council developed a strategy to turn the EU into "the most competitive and dynamic economy in the world by 2010". But since this decision did not prescribe obligations (to whom what measures should be taken, what results should be achieved), it remained only on paper.
In the fall of 2008, Europe became a victim of the American mortgage crisis, although it was not one of its participants. The excessive privilege of the dollar was reinforced by the fact that Brussels could not stop the extra-territoriality of American legislation (that is, the effect of US laws outside the United States). In the West, Americans order music in economic and financial matters. And after a long period of defending free trade from 1947 to 2019, they returned to protectionism. Look at the American law on reducing inflation that upset Europe so much, adopted in August 2022 — it is just a reflection of American protectionism. Fair trade is now a thing of the past. European investors are rushing to the United States. And we are still waiting for Europe's reaction to this step.
Two strategic failures in Africa
In geopolitical matters, Europe was also out of history, we just dropped out of the process. In Africa, France remained the benchmark power when it restored stability there, limiting the ambitions of the separatists. But it lost its influence after two strategic failures: ill-conceived military cooperation in Rwanda, which ended in genocide (April-June 1994); and the destruction of the Gaddafi regime in Libya (March-October 2011). The second operation flooded not only Libya itself with weapons, but also its neighbors in the Sahel, which led to the chaos that continues to this day.
In Central Asia, Europeans bought into the American dream of the "democratization" of Afghanistan, presented at the Bonn Conference in December 2001. Having failed to secure the areas allocated to them, they fled Afghanistan in an uncoordinated manner, anticipating the final departure of the Americans. In the Middle East, the relatively successful Abraham Accords (August 2020, Israel's reconciliation agreements with rich Arab countries) are the first major deal since the Oslo Accord in 1993. But these are also controlled by the Americans.
American Leadership
The Europeans left the historical scene of their continent, showing themselves unable to prevent wars there. The war in Bosnia (1992-1995) was stopped by American diplomacy. In 1999, the Europeans did not dare to prevent a NATO war against Serbia in favor of the Kosovo separatists, although NATO's invasion of Yugoslavia violated both its own charter of this organization and the UN charter.
On February 21, 2014, in Kiev, Germany and France, together with Poland, worked out a political agreement between pro-Russian President Yanukovych and pro-European opposition Maidan rioters. But the rioters neglected the execution of this "European" document. The same thing happened with the Minsk Agreements signed by the Europeans in February 2015.
After the start of the Russian special operation in February 2022, the United States regained unconditional leadership over the Europeans. It is they who make decisions on the supply of heavy weapons — first defensive, and then offensive, Europe follows the Americans. Only direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow will one day put an end to the conflict.
The Europeans have left History because they no longer define it. They just obey her.