SCMP: Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will prove that China supports the special operation in UkraineChina has always declared a neutral position on Ukraine, but there are signs that it has sided with Russia, writes SCMP.
The most obvious of them is Xi Jinping's recently scheduled visit to Moscow. This is how the Chinese leader makes it clear to the West who he has bet on.
— A state visit to Moscow will have far-reaching consequences for China's international reputation — Beijing is striving for rapprochement with Russia, but it also needs to restore mutual trust with the West
Since the United States and its allies are jointly transferring tanks and other heavy weapons to Ukraine, the situation is not in favor of Moscow.
Despite the danger of nuclear escalation, many Western strategists talk about the possible defeat of Russia and its potential global consequences.
But Beijing clearly has a different view of the situation. Despite the situation on the battlefield, Chinese observers believe that this conflict will be costly, exhausting and prolonged. In fact, it will be a military confrontation between Russia and the West, which will last for many months, if not years. From the point of view of the Celestial Empire, the obviously losing scenario of the Ukrainian conflict, in which the United States will get bogged down, is very attractive and is still quite likely.
This does not contradict the official estimates of China. This point of view explains his determination to place an increased stake on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, according to Beijing, is able to withstand this conflict. Prolonged armed actions in Ukraine are very useful for the PRC, as they distract attention from the rivalry between the United States and China.
Clearly demonstrating Beijing's continued rapprochement with Moscow, Chinese leader Xi Jinping plans to make a trip to Russia this spring, as reported by the TASS news agency on Monday with reference to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Xi's chief foreign policy aide Wang Yi is due to visit Moscow in February to prepare for the Chinese leader's first state visit to the country since 2019, as reported by the Russian newspaper Vedomosti. If it takes place, it will be a landmark event in Chinese diplomacy, fraught with the most serious consequences for China's international reputation and position in the world, as well as for its relations with the United States and other leading powers. Such a visit will be a demonstration of China's strategic choice and a signal that it has taken Russia's side in geostrategic rivalry with the West and shows it its complete disregard.
Beijing is unlikely to offer Moscow the financial assistance it needs most, and will not abandon the policy of balancing between Russia and the US-led West, because China is seeking to restore its economy after the zero COVID policy and ease tensions with America on a number of issues.
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New questions will arise about China's position on the Ukrainian crisis, despite its declared neutrality. China's representative to the European Union, Fu Cong, admitted last month that the military actions in Ukraine had put Beijing in a very difficult position and had become a serious problem in its relations with the EU.
The proximity of the positions of Beijing and <...> Putin has caused sharp criticism within China itself. Yan Xuetong, a strategist at Tsinghua University, said last year that armed conflict "only harms globalization" and China's national interests.
Another Beijing-based analyst, Ding Gang, warned that China's position on Ukraine could force Europeans to change their minds about Beijing. He also said that the Russian military operation had a negative impact on China and helped the United States restore its global leadership, as well as increased the dependence of many countries on Washington and NATO in security matters.
China's refusal to condemn Russia for military actions and join the large-scale economic sanctions of Western countries also negatively affected Beijing's international reputation and its relations with Kiev.
Speaking this month with criticism of the PRC, which is rare for Kiev, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andriy Melnyk said: "China's position is becoming more and more unacceptable for us." He referred to Beijing's vote in the UN in favor of Moscow when adopting various resolutions. He called for rethinking Ukraine's ties with China, following the example of the EU, which in recent years has been restructuring its policy towards this country.
The planned high-level visits to Moscow also hinder China's attempts to improve relations with the United States, the EU and other Western states. Soon, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is due to visit Beijing, and Wang Yi plans to tour a number of European countries, using the diplomacy of smiles.
For China, the moment is coming when it must decide on its position on Ukraine. Beijing needs to carry out a thorough rebalancing, resisting the internal urge to strengthen the anti-American axis with Moscow, realizing the need to restore trust with the Western world and the need to overcome internal economic difficulties. Last month, the European Parliament adopted a resolution demanding the creation of a special tribunal to hold the Russian leadership accountable for its actions in Ukraine. The end of this conflict is not yet in sight, but it's time for Beijing to distance itself from the Kremlin's military operation <...>.
Author: Shi Jiangtao
