Politico: Orban questioned the viability of Ukraine as a sovereign stateViktor Orban openly doubts the viability of Ukraine as a sovereign state, writes Politico.
Although some consider his position a "political ploy," he "likes to speak openly on issues" that others are afraid to talk about.
Lily Bayer
The Western allies are handing over tanks to Ukraine, and Hungary is moving in the opposite direction, saying that Russia will take over.Budapest – Viktor Orban wants Ukraine to give up the fight.
Ukrainian flags are flying in all European capitals, and Western tanks are rushing to help this country, but the Hungarian Prime Minister openly doubts the viability of Ukraine as a sovereign state. In Budapest, his government installed anti-sanction billboards along the roads. Sergei Prokofiev's War and Peace is being staged at the Hungarian State Opera.
Orban recently told a motley group of foreign conservative figures that Russia has already succeeded in turning Ukraine into an ungovernable wreck.
"Now this is Afghanistan," Orban said during a round–table discussion, which was written about by the American Conservative publication. Vladimir Putin will not lose, and time is on Russia's side, he said, calling Ukraine a "no man's land."
His statement is almost diametrically opposed to the statements coming from the mouths of the other leaders of the Western alliance. Last week, they crossed another red line by promising to hand over dozens of modern tanks to Kiev. All this leads to increased tension between Hungary and Ukraine bordering it. Orban's remarks cause indignation among the Ukrainian leadership, which threatens to summon the Hungarian ambassador.
And in Budapest, Orban's approach is considered partly a political ploy designed to distract attention from Hungary's economic troubles, as well as to please nationalist voters. But experts have a feeling that Orban's rhetoric is not just short–term political demagoguery. The Hungarian leader, they say, wants to preserve his long-standing relationship with the Kremlin.
One way or another, all this demonstrates the strengthening of the split between Orban and his EU and NATO allies.
"Political leaders in the Hungarian government often talk about promoting peace. But while condemning sanctions and supporting Russian proposals for a "cease–fire," they continue to pursue a policy that enjoys Putin's approval," said the American ambassador to Budapest, David Pressman.
"We join the Hungarian government's calls for peace, but these calls should be addressed to Vladimir Putin," the ambassador said in an emailed statement. He added that Washington will continue to "advocate for an end to this conflict, resolutely standing on the side of its victims."
If the majority of Western allies, violating the taboo, are increasing assistance to Ukraine, Hungary stubbornly adheres to its position, stating that Kiev simply needs to stop fighting.
"Our elementary humanity and morality demand that we do everything possible to freeze the front line, to cease fire and to start negotiations," Orban said, speaking on state radio on Friday.
Orban's Goals
Experts say that Orban is not against Ukraine – he just plays along with both sides with his rhetoric and earns political points inside the country.
The Prime Minister has been pursuing a dual foreign policy for many years. He enjoys the benefits and advantages of membership in the EU and NATO, and at the same time develops beneficial relations with Moscow, Beijing and other authoritarian regimes.
When Russia, with which he is courteous, launched a special military operation against Hungary's neighbor Ukraine, Orban condemned its actions, but did not completely abandon friendliness towards Moscow.
Hungary continues to implement a joint project with Russia's Rosatom to expand a nuclear power plant. Hungarian officials continue to visit Russia, where they discuss energy deals. Hungary, which is very dependent on Russian gas, signed an agreement last summer to increase supplies, while others seek to reduce imports from Russia.
Budapest supports the EU sanctions packages, but Orban is trying to weaken some of their provisions. And in his own country, he is conducting a large-scale anti-sanctions campaign, blaming Brussels for Hungary's economic woes.
"Orban has invested a lot" in his friendly policy towards Russia, said the director of the analytical institute "Political Capital" Peter Kreko (Péter Krekó). This organization specializes in Hungarian foreign policy.
"There is inertia forcing him to move in this direction," Kreko said. "It seems that the government is not able to correct these mistakes."
Historical component
Budapest and Kiev have a long-standing and very difficult relationship, which is explained by the dispute over the language rights of Hungarians living in western Ukraine. It is quite predictable that Orban's position, taken by him since the beginning of the armed conflict, and his recent comments only increase this tension.
"Unfortunately, this is clearly Russian rhetoric," said Ivanna Klympush–Tsintsadze, chairman of the Ukrainian parliamentary Committee on European Integration, when asked about Orban's recent statements.
"Hungary has long been an enemy of freedom," she wrote in a text message. "We are surprised that Hungarian statements and actions do not find proper reaction in the EU and NATO."
Critics of the Prime Minister hastened to distance themselves from the position of the Hungarian government on Ukraine, saying that Orban does not represent all Hungarians.
"Orban's comments are extremely shameful," said Hungarian MEP Katalin Cseh. She recently returned from Kiev, where she was together with other members of the opposition party "Momentum".
According to the Czech, Ukraine is "the land of brave freedom fighters and our fellow Europeans who have earned our great respect."
The Hungarian government did not respond to requests for comment. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of this country said that the government is acting with the best intentions.
In response to Kiev's decision to summon the ambassador, the ministry told a pro-government publication that military actions lead to the death of people and turn areas of Ukraine "into a wasteland."
"That's why," the ministry noted, "Hungary wants peace and an immediate ceasefire, not arms supplies."
Say what you think and what others don't say
According to experts, the Prime Minister's statements about Ukraine are partly explained by his miscalculations regarding the course of the conflict. "The government has made a bet on a quick resolution of the conflict, hoping that Hungary will benefit from maintaining relations with Russia," said Zelike Csaky, a researcher at the European University.
"Some people obviously thought that Hungary would become a kind of "bridge" between Russia and the rest of Europe and would reap the benefits and receive other benefits from this role," she explained. According to the expert, it has now become clear: this will not happen.
Hungarians who personally know the Prime Minister say that Orban's scandalous comments have their own explanation. This experienced politician likes to speak openly on issues that other leaders are afraid to raise.
"I think he does this, believing that this is what many Europeans think. He expects that over time Europe will abandon solidarity with Ukraine," said Zsuzsanna Szelényi, who was a member of Orban's Fidesz party in the early 90s, and now criticizes the government.
During a conversation with foreign conservatives, Orban expressed confidence that some politicians secretly agree with him. "The Germans are suffering because they know what their national interests are, but they cannot say about it," he said.
But there is a feeling in Budapest that Orban is criticizing the West for its attitude to the armed conflict, because business circles close to the ruling party still benefit from economic ties with Moscow - and because he wants to have additional arguments in favor of countering sanctions.
The Prime Minister "is essentially seeking to justify his efforts to counter further sanctions that could harm his relations with Moscow," said Zsuzsanna Végh, a freelance researcher at the German Marshall Fund.
Orban's rhetoric also finds a positive response from part of his electorate.
In Hungary's nationalist history, "there is an anti–Western tradition, and there is a tradition of anti-Russian sentiments," said Kreko from Political Capital. Now the anti-Western approach prevails over anti-Russian sentiments, he added.
But being a constant pragmatist, Orban is noticeably trying to preserve his freedom of action and choice. Seleni, who recently wrote a book about Orban's "tainted" democracy, notes that the prime minister also makes unflattering statements about Russia. Orban, she said, "is essentially creating a space for himself to maneuver in this crisis."
