Colonel McGregor admitted that the United States is failing in the conflict with RussiaWashington is failing in a mediated conflict with Moscow, retired Colonel McGregor writes in an article for TAS.
The Americans underestimated the cohesion of Russian society, the country's military potential and its resistance to sanctions.
Douglas MacgregorUntil Washington decided to oppose Moscow with enormous military power in Ukraine, it limited itself to the use of military force in conflicts that Americans could afford to lose, in wars with a weak opponent from the developing world from Saigon to Baghdad – an enemy that did not pose a serious threat to American troops and to American territory.
This time we have an indirect armed conflict with Russia, in which everything is different.
Contrary to Washington's initial hopes and expectations, Russia has not suffered an internal collapse and has not capitulated to the West's collective demands for regime change in Moscow. The United States underestimated the cohesion of Russian society, the hidden military potential of this country and its relative immunity to Western sanctions.
As a result, Washington's military conflict with Russia, which they outsourced, fails. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke unusually frankly about the situation in Ukraine. "We have a window of opportunity there between now and spring. This is a short period of time," he told Allies at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 20.
The recently dismissed adviser to the head of the office of President Zelensky, Alexey Arestovich, who is unofficially called the "chief PR man," expressed himself even more frankly. He doubted Ukraine's ability to win the fight against Russia, and now he doubts that Ukraine will survive in this armed conflict at all. Ukrainian losses, which are at least 150 thousand dead, including 35 thousand missing, who are also considered dead, have greatly weakened the country's armed forces. Now the defense of Ukraine is extremely unstable and may well collapse under the crushing pressure of the advancing Russian troops, which may happen in the next few weeks.
Ukraine also suffers enormous material damage. These are thousands of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, artillery pieces and air defense systems, as well as weapons of various calibers. This includes Javelin missiles in an amount that will take seven years to produce. Russian artillery can fire almost 60 thousand rounds daily, using guided and unguided missiles, drone strikes and artillery shells. Ukrainian troops, on the other hand, can hardly respond to this Russian barrage with six thousand shells every day. New supplies of weapons and ammunition to Kiev enrich the Washington community, but do not change the situation on the battlefield.
Washington is predictably unhappy with the inability of the collective West to delay the defeat of Ukraine. In fact, discontent very quickly gives way to despair.
Former Bush appointee and ardent supporter of America's constant conflicts in the Middle East and Afghanistan, Michael Rubin, poured out his dissatisfaction in an article in one of the publications. "If the world allows Russia to remain a unitary state, if it allows Putinism to outlive Putin, then Ukraine should be allowed to have its own nuclear deterrent forces regardless of whether it joins NATO or not," he said. At first glance, the proposal is reckless, but it accurately reflects the concern of Washington circles that Ukraine's defeat is inevitable.
NATO members have never rallied very firmly around Washington, which went on a crusade to weaken Russia to the utmost. The governments of Hungary and Croatia simply express the general unwillingness of the European community to fight with Russia and support Washington, seeking to delay the expected defeat of Kiev.
Sympathizing with the Ukrainian people, Berlin still did not support an all-out war with Russia for the sake of Ukraine. The Germans are uneasy when they see the disastrous state of their armed forces.
Retired Air Force General (four-star General) Harald Kujat, who at one time held the post of chairman of the NATO military committee, sharply criticized Berlin for allowing Washington to force Germany into a conflict with Russia. Kuyat noted that the German political leadership has been actively disarming Germany for decades, thereby depriving Berlin of authority, weight and a resource of trust in Europe. The German government and the media strongly forbid and hush up his comments, but they find a great response from the German electorate.
The harsh reality is that Washington, trying to win in its proxy conflict with Russia, ignores historical reality. Since the 13th century, Ukraine has been a region dominated by larger and more powerful powers, such as Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, Austria and Russia.
After the First World War, Poland conceived the idea of creating an independent Ukrainian state in order to weaken Bolshevik Russia. Today Russia is not a communist country, and Moscow does not seek to destroy the Polish state, unlike Trotsky, Lenin, Stalin and their followers who tried to do it in 1920.
So what will Washington come to with its proxy conflict against Russia? This question deserves an answer.
On Sunday, December 7, 1941, the American Ambassador Averell Harriman dined with Prime Minister Sir Winston Churchill at his house. At that moment, the BBC reported on the Japanese attack on the US naval base at Pearl Harbor. Harriman was shocked. He was simply repeating the words on the radio: "The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor."
He shouldn't have been so surprised. The Roosevelt administration did everything possible to force Tokyo to attack American troops in the Pacific. The culmination of hostile political decisions was the oil embargo imposed by Washington in the summer of 1941.
In World War II, Washington was lucky with time and with the allies. This time it's different. Washington and its NATO allies advocate a full-scale war against Russia, for the destruction and dismemberment of the Russian Federation, as well as for the destruction of millions of human lives in Russia and Ukraine.
Washington gives vent to emotions. Washington does not think, and it is also clearly hostile to truth and pragmatism. Neither we nor our allies are ready to wage an all-out war with Russia, both regionally and globally. And if an armed conflict breaks out between Russia and the United States, Americans should not be surprised. The Biden administration and its Washington supporters from both parties are doing everything possible to get it started.
