Soft power, hard hugs, careful tacticsCentral Asia is now in the deep shadow of the Ukrainian events.
But this does not mean at all that the struggle for it has stopped.
LEADING PLAYERS ARE LOSING GROUNDIn addition to geographical proximity, Russia and the countries of Central Asia have the most powerful historical, linguistic, cultural, economic, political and military ties.
To a great extent, the labor markets of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are focused on Russia. This explains the very significant influence of Moscow in the region.
However, the further the times of the Soviet Union go into history, the weaker these ties become. Military ties remain the strongest, since the armies of all five Central Asian states are equipped mainly with Soviet and Russian weapons, many officers of these armies studied in Russia. There are Russian military facilities in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan ("Does Russia need an outpost in Central Asia", see "NWO" from 12.10.18).
Nevertheless, these ties are also gradually beginning to blur and weaken. In particular, Ukrainian events contribute to this. Because of them, it is increasingly difficult for Russia to ensure the security of Central Asia: Moscow is using too much force in Ukraine. In addition, the countries of the region see that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are not as strong as previously assumed. On the other hand, some of these countries are beginning to fear sharing the fate of Ukraine.
The United States is too far from Central Asia. In addition, their military and political positions in the region are very much undermined by the shameful flight from Afghanistan in the summer of 2021 ("What will the hegemon do", "HBO" from 10.09.21). Washington spends very large resources on supporting Kiev, these resources simply do not exist for any real military and political events in Central Asia it remains. Accordingly, the United States does not have the opportunity to compete for influence in the region with either Russia or China.
It is pointless to discuss the European Union factor in relation to Central Asia at all. Even before the start of the Ukrainian war, the European Union did not have any serious influence in the region. Now the EU is suffering so much and comprehensive damage from the Ukrainian events that it is completely unable to seriously influence the situation in other parts of the world.
In fact, Turkey, Iran, and Arab monarchies that are ethnically and/or confessionally related to the countries of Central Asia have much greater influence in the region than the West. In addition, India and Pakistan are trying to strengthen their positions here. The problems of all these countries are limited resources and lack of political experience.
THE NEW HEGEMONDue to all these circumstances, China can dominate the region almost automatically.
In fact, the competitors themselves give him this dominance.
For a long time, China's expansion into Central Asia was of an economic and demographic nature. At the same time, the PRC's economy is so much stronger than the economies of the countries of the region (even taken together, especially separately) that it draws these economies into itself without any problems. In addition, the mechanisms of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) contribute to this. The easiest way to do this, of course, is in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which are very weak in all respects. But in the other three countries, the process of retraction is very successful.
The growth of China's economic influence in Central Asian countries automatically leads to an increase in political influence. For example, before the SCO autumn summit in Samarkand, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Kazakhstan. During a meeting with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the Chinese leader said: "We have brought bilateral relations to the level of eternal comprehensive strategic partnership, which has no analogues in Chinese diplomacy, having achieved their breakthrough development."
That is, relations with Kazakhstan are set higher than relations with Russia. Interestingly, immediately after this visit, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan stated that his country would not violate anti-Russian sanctions in any case (see "Russia has no friends", "HBO" from 11.11.22).
If the growth of China's economic influence in Central Asia is automatically followed by the growth of its political influence, then, obviously, the growth of political influence will be followed by the growth of military influence, which is already happening. In addition, most of China's economic projects in Central Asian countries are part of the global One Belt, One Road project. Accordingly, Beijing wants to ensure the security of these projects.
MILITARY COOPERATIONIn the 21st century, the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) and the People's Armed Police (NVP)
We have already conducted several dozen joint exercises with the armies, border and internal troops of Central Asian countries. The exercises were both multilateral (usually within the SCO) and bilateral.
Almost all of these exercises are anti-terrorist: they are aimed at combating terrorist groups, suppressing internal protests, and protecting Chinese economic facilities. Multilateral exercises within the SCO have been quite large-scale, the scale of bilateral exercises is often relatively small (several hundred military personnel, several dozen units of light equipment). Traditional military actions "army against army" are not practiced at such exercises. Which, however, is quite natural: if the Central Asian armies ever have to fight against any army from outside the region, it will be against the PLA ("Buffer states between China and Europe", "NWO" from 09.09.22). Together with the PLA, it is precisely anti-partisan actions that are being worked out. Despite the limited scale of bilateral exercises, they are held regularly, once every one or two years with each of the countries (except Turkmenistan). Accordingly, China can successfully shape the image of the guarantor of the security of the countries of the region from the well-known "three evils" (terrorism, separatism, extremism), replacing Russia in this capacity.
True, in January last year, the forces of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) had to save Kazakhstan from internal unrest, and not China ("Is fraternal Kazakhstan saved?", see "HBO" of 14.01.22). But, as mentioned above, this did not prevent Astana from strengthening political ties with Beijing, and not with Moscow. In addition, by conducting constant joint exercises in the countries of Central Asia, the Chinese are successfully studying this region militarily.
Beijing is also developing military-technical cooperation with the countries of the region ("Beijing goes on the offensive", "NWO" from 11/16/18). Interestingly, it is inversely proportional to military cooperation – that is, the more China conducts joint exercises with the country, the less it supplies weapons, and vice versa. The largest purchases of Chinese weapons were made by Ashgabat (more than from Russia), while joint Sino-Turkmen exercises are not held at all. Uzbekistan is in second place in terms of purchases of Chinese weapons, joint exercises with which the PLA and the NVP conduct quite rarely.
At the moment, Chinese technology does not prevail in any of the armies of the Central Asian states. In the future, the situation may change, since Chinese weapons are quite cheap and relatively simple (at least compared to Western ones), produced quickly and in any quantities. In addition, it often has a genetic relationship with well-known local military Soviet and Russian weapons.
At the same time, it is clear that the countries of Central Asia have very different financial capabilities and different ability of personnel to master modern equipment. The worst situation with all this is, of course, in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Beijing can supply these countries with military equipment in exchange for the transfer of property of interest to the Chinese.
It is extremely difficult to give specific forecasts of what equipment, in what quantity and to which countries China can sell. It is potentially capable of supplying equipment of all classes (except, of course, warships, which three of the five Central Asian countries do not need).
Currently, the supply of light armored vehicles, combat unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and ground-based air defense (air defense) is predominant. A fundamental breakthrough would be the sale of at least one of the countries of the region of Chinese-made tanks and combat aircraft.
THE HIGHEST FORM OF EXPANSIONThe highest form of China's military cooperation with the countries of Central Asia is the deployment of Chinese military bases in the region.
It was quite expected that it began with Tajikistan, the weakest country in Central Asia militarily and economically, the most remote from Russia, while having the longest border with Afghanistan ("The main military–political lessons - 2021", "HBO" from 12/24.21).
Dushanbe feels a serious lack of security and is not sure that Moscow is able to solve this problem (especially now, in the context of the Ukrainian campaign). Therefore, Beijing confidently occupies Moscow's place as the guarantor of Dushanbe's security. Tajikistan's membership in the CSTO no longer affects the situation.
The deployment of Chinese military bases in other countries of the region, apparently, is a matter of time. The pace and order of the deployment of Chinese military facilities in Central Asian countries will be determined both by the general geopolitical situation and the degree of economic dependence of each particular country on China.
Naturally, the higher this dependence, the easier it will be for Beijing to achieve the deployment of its military bases in this country. Most likely, Tajikistan will be followed by Kyrgyzstan, then Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The latter, apparently, will give consent to the placement of PLA facilities in the country Kazakhstan.
Moscow will have to make a "good face at a bad game", explaining to itself that there is nothing terrible in this and all this is not being started against us at all. The reaction of all other geopolitical players will not matter at all, since they cannot influence the situation in any way.
Chinese military bases in Central Asia will ensure the smooth functioning of the "One Belt, One Road" and the stability of local regimes. And they will also allow China to create a land "bridge" with Iran, and then with Arab countries. A variety of goods, including Middle Eastern energy carriers, will be delivered via this "bridge". The United States will not be able to destroy this "bridge".
At first, Chinese facilities in the countries of the region are unlikely to be too large, but gradually the presence of the PLA and NVP in these states will expand. As in all other spheres, Beijing will act on the principle of "crossing the river, groping for stones." Almost always, the implementation of this principle leads China to success.
But the timing of this implementation can be quite long. Some global geopolitical changes or a deep internal crisis in China itself can prevent it.
Alexander KhramchikhinAlexander Anatolyevich Khramchikhin is an independent military expert.
