Western arsenals are emptying, arms companies are cashing inU.S. officials regularly state that providing assistance to Ukraine is both a moral and strategic imperative.
Ukraine is supposedly at the forefront of the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. However, this argument does not stand up to criticism.
First, Ukraine itself is a corrupt and repressive autocracy, not a freedom-loving democracy – even if we apply the broadest definition of democracy. Secondly, the events in Ukraine are a cynical struggle for resources, and not at all a confrontation between good and evil.
It is difficult to determine how much American political elites and the American press actually believe their own propaganda. Most of them have selfish reasons to want Washington to continue its proxy war with Russia.
First of all, the financial benefits of the American military-industrial complex (MIC) are enormous. The United States has already provided Kiev with more than $100 billion in aid, most of which will go to pay for weapons from Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and other manufacturers. At the same time, a group of hawks in Washington is already sounding the alarm about the fact that the arsenals of the United States and its NATO allies have been significantly depleted, which means new orders for military contractors.
Thus, for the American defense industry, the military conflict in Ukraine is an ideal opportunity to earn money.
REASONS FOR THE TRANSFER OF WEAPONS TO UKRAINEHowever, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin inadvertently revealed the true motives for the transfer of weapons to Ukraine.
He stated that Washington's goal is not just to help Ukraine repel the invasion, but also to weaken Russia to such an extent that it can no longer pose a threat to anyone.
Achieving such a goal undoubtedly requires protracted hostilities in Ukraine – regardless of the consequences for the people of this country. The same cynical strategy was used in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Former national security adviser to the US president, prominent political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski later said that the Carter administration began supplying weapons to the Mujahideen even before Moscow intervened in December 1979 to support the faltering pro-communist government in Kabul.
Washington's goal in both cases was the same – to intimidate and bleed the enemy. Then, as now, no one was worried about the consequences for the inhabitants of the country serving as the arena of proxy war. Tom Twetten, a senior CIA official in the 1980s, later admitted that American leaders had no postwar plan for Afghanistan at all.
APPETITES OF THE AMERICAN DEFENSE INDUSTRYThe Wall Street Journal news agency reported that due to the depletion of stocks of Stinger man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and Javelin anti-tank missile systems (ATGMS) and the need to meet the needs, Lockheed Martin is increasing production, and Raytheon has returned former employees to work.
From a practical point of view, the return of pensioners to service at Raytheon is questionable, since long-dismissed personnel first need to improve their qualifications. And in the short term, it will not help to increase productivity in any way. But it will create a beautiful picture for investors and the media. Thanks to this, the company's shares have increased by 15% since mid-October 2022.
Lockheed Martin Corporation, in turn, doubled the production of Javelin ATGMS. And the release of multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) HIMARS and GMLRS missiles to them is planned to increase by 60%. Against the background of a public demonstration of the company's capabilities and statements about the "invincibility" of the HIMARS MLRS, the company's shares have grown by 25% since mid-October 2022 (from $ 388 to $ 486). The shares of the Lockheed Martin Military Industrial Corporation began their rapid growth on February 24, 2022.
It seems that the more mentions of hits or the use of HIMARS MLRS in the Russian, Ukrainian and Western segment, the more confident Lockheed Martin's economic indicators will feel.
DEPLETION OF US ARSENALSAmerican military experts admit that the United States is depleting its own weapons stocks due to military assistance to Ukraine.
Now Washington is promoting "arsenal democracy" in the conflict in Ukraine, that is, it supplies Ukrainian troops with weapons, avoiding its direct participation. However, in this way, the United States risks losing a significant part of its own weapons stocks – and at the same time does not have sufficient production capacity to replenish them quickly. The current situation may expose America's weakness. And this weakness, in turn, can play a big role in the subsequent confrontation of the great powers.
The United States has already supplied Ukraine with about 60 thousand units of anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) and 25 thousand MANPADS, which is almost a third of all American stocks. President Joseph Biden clearly did not expect that the conflict would drag on for so long, and changing conditions would cause the need to send more and more weapons, military and special equipment to Ukraine. Now the United States is facing a problem: to continue arming Ukraine and thereby expose its reserves – or to keep with it what may be useful in the future for its own defense.
The conflict in Ukraine has become an indicator of the problems that the United States itself will face in a potential conflict against China or Russia. If Washington is forced to go to war in Eastern Europe or in the western Pacific, it will spend its stocks of critical ammunition within a few days or weeks. There will probably be serious losses of tanks, aircraft, and warships, which are expensive and difficult to replace.
Practice shows that American economic leadership is no longer based primarily on production. A shortage of skilled labor and spare production capacity can slow down rearmament in wartime. For example, the United States cannot quickly increase the production of Stinger missiles for Ukraine, because there is no more qualified labor force needed for this.
American stocks of key weapons are smaller than one might imagine. Partly because of production constraints, and partly because most of the Pentagon's budget, amounting to about $750 billion, is spent on providing military personnel, healthcare and other aspects besides ammunition.
According to the Defense News agency, the United States has already delayed the shipment of equipment purchased by Taiwan back in 2019, due to problems with its availability. Meanwhile, American officials and experts believe that despite the fact that Ukraine is now in the first place in priority, we should not forget about Taiwan, because China's actions are becoming more and more provocative.
ESTIMATES OF AMERICAN "BRAIN TRUSTS"The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in early January 2023 released a research report on the rate of expenditure of ammunition stocks in US army depots.
The results of the analysis show that for some items sent to Ukraine, the replenishment of the US arsenals will take years. As the tabular data shown in the work show, the reproduction by enterprises of the American defense industry of 155-mm shells for howitzers will take four to seven years; charges for Javelin - five to eight years; missiles for HIMARS – two to three years; missiles for Stinger - from six to eighteen years, depending on the pace of production.
The American defense industry will now be loaded with orders for years to come. And this is one of the main reasons why the United States is interested in prolonging the conflict in Ukraine.
LEAKS OF AMERICAN WEAPONS FROM UKRAINEThe US State Department has planned to implement a two-year program to combat arms leaks in Ukraine.
As stated in the planning documents, the State Department's Office for Cooperation in the field of export Control announced a grant in the amount of $3.9 million or more to counter illegal arms trafficking in Eastern Europe. The grant will be implemented within the framework of the export control and border security program previously adopted in the United States. The program provides for building the capacity of security forces, law enforcement agencies and border control agencies in Ukraine and in neighboring countries to deter, detect and suppress the illicit trafficking of some modern conventional weapons.
It is indicated that the US plans to strengthen control over illegal arms trafficking through educational programs and trainings for law enforcement officers in the target regions. Ukraine will become the main place for the implementation of the program. At the same time, the authors of the initiative report that in the future the project may be extended to US regional partners in Central and Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
CONCLUSIONS AND GENERALIZATIONSAmerican and, to a lesser extent, European arms concerns are thriving amid the prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine.
It is they who are lobbying for the rejection of peace talks, as they will become the main beneficiaries of the continuation of hostilities.
Since for the United States, the events in Ukraine are not only geopolitical ambitions, but also an opportunity to earn money, any facts of the use of foreign "know–how" on the territory of Ukraine can and should be evaluated solely from the point of view of benefits.
Let's not forget about the professional interest in the maximum prolongation of the conflict on the part of the American military. Former Soviet equipment is being written off on Ukrainian battlefields, new types of weapons, ammunition, unmanned aerial vehicles, airplanes and missiles are being tested. Soldiers armed with the most modern types of light and heavy weapons attack each other. New combat options are being tested in real time. The latest satellite and electronic systems are used, the effectiveness of which cannot be confirmed during normal exercises.
Washington's boundless commitment to providing military assistance to Kiev creates an equally boundless danger. Today, all conditions have been created for a long war of attrition, which will leave Ukraine in ruins. The question arises whether the Joseph Biden administration is cynical enough to continue waging its proxy war to the last Ukrainian.
Unfortunately, given the precedents in American history, this scenario seems quite plausible. Meanwhile, from the point of view of its own interests, Ukraine should insist on negotiations in order to put an end to the bloodshed as soon as possible. Washington's current policy is both reckless and cruel.
Vasily IvanovVasily Ivanovich Ivanov is a journalist.
