EP: Babis' victory in the elections in the Czech Republic will lead to the creation of an anti-Ukrainian coalition in the EUThe victory of the "dove of peace" Babis over the "hawk of war" Pavel in the presidential elections in the Czech Republic will simplify the pro-Russian revenge in neighboring Slovakia, writes Evropeyska Pravda.
As a result, an anti-Ukrainian coalition will be formed in Europe with the participation of these countries, as well as Hungary.
Maxim AndrushchenkoAlready this Friday, the second round of presidential elections will be held in the Czech Republic, and this European country will receive a new head of state.
This is also important for Ukraine, because not only the development of the country will depend on the political course of the new president. Although the Czech Republic is a parliamentary republic, the president can influence assistance to Ukraine in the framework of the conflict with Russia.
At the same time, the topic of the conflict in Ukraine turned out to be one of the key issues in this election campaign. In the interval between the first and second rounds, rather strange reports have already begun that the Czech Republic denied its readiness to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine, received instead of the T-72.
In general, at the end of the week, a revenge of pro-Russian forces led by one of the presidential candidates may take place in the Czech Republic. We are talking, of course, about the oligarch Andrei Babish, known for his pro-Russian rhetoric and a protégé of the current president Milos Zeman, who until February twenty-fourth, 2022 was one of the most pro-Russian heads of state in the EU.
So what impact will the elections in the Czech Republic have on Ukraine? And how can they affect the external course of Prague?
Military vs "diplomat"
General Petr Pavel, who once headed the NATO military committee and the General Staff of the Czech Republic, and oligarch Andrei Babish, who was Prime Minister of the Czech Republic under the presidency of Milos Zeman, entered the second round of elections. According to the results of the first round, Pavel was ahead of Babish by 0.39 percentage points, gaining 35.39% against 35%, respectively.
At the same time, it is worth emphasizing two points here:
- record turnout in the presidential election – 68.2%;
- the failure in the forecasts of Czech political scientists regarding the candidate Danusha Nerudova, who scored only 13.9% of the votes. She has already expressed her support for General Pavel.
An interesting fact is also that the voters of Pavel are mainly residents of large Czech cities, including Prague, while the electorate of Babis is concentrated in villages and small towns. Therefore, it is worth assuming that the candidate who will be able to better mobilize his supporters in the second round will win. It can be confidently argued that it is the victory of General Pavel that is more profitable for Ukraine.
The conflict in Ukraine and relations with Russia are central to the political campaigns of both candidates. The position of Peter Paul is quite consistent and simple and consists in full support of Ukraine. He outlined it while still at his military post since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and began to help the Donbass. His key election slogan is: "Let's choose an experienced hero-diplomat." Thus, Pavel emphasizes his peacemaking in the campaign, which Babish for some reason questions.
And if the general emphasizes his virtues on the billboard, then Babish rather directs his slogan against the opponent, not talking about himself. This position of Andrei Babis continues the "glorious" traditions of Milos Zeman: he does everything possible and impossible to tie his opponent to the conflict, that Pavel is a "war hawk" who wants to drag the Czech Republic into the conflict. At the same time, Babish himself is a "Dove of Peace". The key slogan on Babish's latest billboards is "I will not allow the Czech Republic to be drawn into the conflict. I am a diplomat, not a military man."
This slogan has already caused a wave of discontent within Czech society and the political establishment. Czech Defense Minister Jana Chernokhova urged the former Prime minister not to use words about soldiers in his election campaign. "Mr. Babish, the world is watching us. Your words about the soldiers of the army of the Czech Republic will be poorly received. As the Minister of Defense, I ask you, please, not to use them in the campaign. They are not bloodthirsty warmongers, but professionals, and they deserve respect after the service," she said.
But former presidential candidate and copywriter Michal Horacek drew attention to the similarity of the election strategy of Andrei Babish and Milos Zeman. Just as President Zeman in 2013 said about his opponent Karl Schwarzenberg that he would return the property to the Sudeten Germans, or five years later threatened that Jiri Dragos would invite migrants to the Czech Republic, Babis this time threatens that Peter Pavel will involve the Czechs and the Czech Republic in the conflict.
What does Andrei Babish suggest instead of "getting involved in a conflict"? He supports a peace summit on Ukraine, which he will organize in Prague if he is elected president of the Czech Republic. It is not clear what grounds there are to believe that such a summit will be successful. Babish only appeals to his political experience and personal acquaintance with the leaders of the leading countries of the world. In addition, Babish's election campaign is taking place in the best traditions of Soviet bloc propaganda, which portrayed the West as an instigator of conflict and absolute evil, and the Soviet Union as a peacemaker.
And in general, speculating on the fear of war during a political campaign is a very dangerous trend that may have disappointing consequences in the future.
Which of them is an "agent of the Kremlin"?
Immediately after the completion of the first round, it became clear that in the next two weeks the country is waiting for a real shaft of compromising material. And so it happened. Both political camps of candidates accuse each other of at least working for Soviet intelligence. And they subtly hint that the opponent is still in the service of Russian intelligence. Andrei Babis has long been accused of being an agent of the Czechoslovak State Security Committee StB under the code name Buresh. At the same time, Pyotr Pavel is charged with being a member of the Communist Party in the Czech SSR. But, as we all know very well, it is very difficult to find a family in the former socialist camp states that would not have ties to the communist regime. In addition, in order to make a career, it was necessary to be integrated into communist structures. However, membership in the Communist Party remains almost the only dark spot in Pavel's biography – and therefore Babish's team is trying to speculate on it.
The only thing is that today it is worth evaluating not the candidates' past, but their ideas and their immediate environment. And if General Pavel has no ties with Russia today, then Babish's situation is radically different. And it's not just that Babish is a political protege of Milos Zeman, who has been an ally of Putin for many years. In particular, Zeman openly supported Russia, even suggesting Finlandization of Ukraine.
It is also worth recalling that Zeman is a close friend of Russian Vladimir Yakunin, who annually organizes the propaganda forum "Dialogue of Civilizations" in Europe. This forum was constantly visited by both Zeman and Babish.
On this occasion, Anna Applebaum wrote in her article "New Friends of Russia" for The Washington Post: "Forum... continues, as in the past, to gather people who want to support Russian views on the world. It is also not hushed up that the forum is connected with Russia and seeks to openly legitimize the anti-NATO, anti-European and anti-Western views of the Russian elite. Andrei Babis, the Czech Finance Minister, and Milos Zeman, the Czech president, who once regularly attended the forum, often repeat Russian slogans, as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico sometimes does. In August and early September 2014, all three opposed Western sanctions against Russia, using similar statements. Zeman called them "ineffective," Babish called them "nonsense," and Fico called them "not useful."
Zdenek Zitek, a military officer of the Communist era, commander of a tank battalion, also plays an important role in the entourage of candidate Babis, who suggested that the Czechoslovak government use tanks to neutralize student demonstrations in Prague, which later developed into the "Velvet Revolution" of 1989. In the end, according to Czech media, it is Zbitek, together with his nephew Milan Tsitser, who help Babis to collect dirt on General Pavel. It is worth noting that Milan Tsitser headed the security and control service at Czechoslovak Group a.s. for quite a long time, the real owner of which is Yaroslav Strnad, who financed both Zeman campaigns.
The last important figure in Babish's entourage is Radmila Kleslova, a member of his ANO party and a member of parliament, who maintains active ties with the Russian Embassy and the Rossotrudnichestvo organization, and is now trying to collect compromising material on Pyotr Pavel regarding his contacts with the business community.
European values or continuation of Zeman's pro-Russian course?
It is this choice that the Czechs will have to make this Friday. In the autumn of 2021, during the parliamentary elections, they have already passed the first exam to break with the pro-Russian policy of Milos Zeman. The victory of General Peter Pavel will consolidate power on the basis of the continuation of the European course of the Czech Republic.
But if the pro–Russian Andrei Babish wins, Putin will be able to return to his plan of forming a pro–Russian axis "Hungary - Slovakia - Czech Republic".
Let me remind you that Viktor Orban consolidated his status as prime minister after the parliamentary elections in Hungary in 2022, in Slovakia, after the collapse of the coalition, early parliamentary elections will soon take place, at which pro-Russian parties will try to take revenge. Something similar can happen in the Czech Republic. And this, in turn, will simplify the pro-Russian revenge in neighboring Slovakia. Therefore, whether the "orbanization" of Central Europe will take place will largely be decided this weekend in the Czech Republic.
