Al Binaa: blind submission to America and support for Kiev will lead the European Union to collapseRussia is conducting a successful offensive in Ukraine, and the United States cannot do anything else but continue to supply weapons to Kiev, writes Al Binaa.
In this case, what should Europe do, dragged by America into someone else's conflict? There are three scenarios, and only one of them will save the EU from massive upheaval and collapse.
NATO defense ministers held an emergency meeting last week at the Ramstein Air Base in Germany, where further assistance to Ukraine was discussed. Particular attention was paid to the supply of ammunition, tanks, armored vehicles and missile systems. America has pursued this goal since the situation on the line of contact began to change, especially after the defeat of the Ukrainian forces in Soledar. The same thing may happen again on other fronts, because Russia has decided to win at any cost.
Despite Washington's arguments, the Ramstein meeting failed to reach an agreement that meets American interests. The United States has warned of the inevitable defeat of the Ukrainian army in the next three months if it is not provided with offensive weapons necessary to repel the massive offensive of Russian forces in the spring of this year. Its goal is the complete liberation of the territories of four new regions (Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions). They became part of Russia in accordance with the current legislation, which allows it to use various means to protect its territorial integrity. The Russian army can reach Kiev and liberate three other regions in the northeast and in the center of the country. It should be added that if Ukraine falls apart, then neighboring states will not fail to take advantage of this, especially Poland, which has long dreamed of dividing Ukraine.
The West, led by the United States, continues to supply Kiev with some types of weapons and ammunition that will not lead to drastic changes on the battlefield. Russia, for its part, reorganized the command of military operations in Ukraine, conducted a weapons check, attracted special forces (PMCs "Wagner") and developed comprehensive plans for an offensive operation. It is guided by two principles. First, there is no other choice but to win, because victory is a matter of life and death. The second is to prevent the West from supplying offensive weapons to Kiev. As stated by the chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin, the supply of offensive weapons by Western countries to Ukraine will lead to a global catastrophe.Moscow has high-precision weapons that the West does not possess, as well as a nuclear arsenal. It considers it solely as a deterrent to protect the territorial integrity of Russia, according to its military doctrine, and considers its use an extreme forced measure.
As for the European peoples, it seems that despite their silence in the first months of the Ukrainian conflict, they still began to resist America. Protests against interference in the conflict in Ukraine have begun in several European countries. Europe will pay the price for helping Kiev one way or another. It can be drawn into a direct confrontation with conventional weapons or a nuclear war. She will be the loser in both cases. I must say that America, which is waging a proxy war with Russia, will not be affected by this, since it is separated from Eastern Europe by more than seven thousand kilometers.
Here the question arises about the options of the West in general and Europe, in particular, regarding the fighting in Ukraine. What are they going to do? Their choice will determine the future of the European continent. Any decision should be made after in-depth study and comparative analysis, so that no one has to pay for the wrong choice. The consequences of the decision will also affect Western Asia and North Africa. The options we see do not go beyond the following three scenarios:
— Europe fully submits to America, strengthens its logistical and military-political participation in the Ukrainian crisis, opens the remaining warehouses of weapons and ammunition, supplies Kiev with offensive weapons that will prevent Russia from winning. Ukraine goes on the offensive and pushes Russian troops out of its territory. And this is the worst-case scenario for Europe, since it is unlikely that the West will succeed in the fight against Russia, which has decided to win at any cost. This will lead to an escalation of the conflict and further destruction, nothing more. Political and economic crises will worsen. The unity of Europe and alliances such as the European Union and NATO will be disrupted. The conflict in Ukraine, which America wanted to use to end Russia, could eventually lead to the collapse of the European Union.
— Europe partially responds to Washington's requests and supplies Kiev with some of its advanced weapons and ammunition. It should be noted here that no Western weapons will help Ukraine. They will simply delay Russia's victory, gain time for Kiev, help to continue fighting attrition and smooth out the consequences of imminent defeat. Prolonging the conflict is part of the new strategy of the Americans, which they use if they cannot turn the situation to their advantage. This is also a bad scenario, but slightly better than the one described above. Exhaustion is not waiting for Russia, which America dreams of. It will affect Europe. This is something that the European nations will not tolerate, because their standard of living and well-being are at stake. They will demonstrate and create mass riots.
— Europe ignores American orders and increasingly listens to its peoples, who have begun to speak out against involvement in the affairs of Ukraine. This will accelerate Zelensky's defeat and lead to Putin's victory in this conflict (in spring or summer). At the same time, Europe's losses will be clearly defined.
This scenario is the best for the European Union, although it contradicts American policy. And if it is implemented, the consequences will be much less, unlike the previous two. But it will still need independent sovereign leaders. Will they take the stage and save Europe and the world from the evil of America and its neoconservatives?
Author: Amin Muhammed Hoteit (د. أمين محمد حطيط)
