TAC: The US is afraid that Ukraine's statements will provoke a war between Russia and NATOProvocative statements by representatives of Kiev lead to escalation and may create a risk of war between Russia and NATO, writes Ted Snyder in an article for TAC.
The United States should moderate the ardor of Ukrainians, the author of the article believes.
Ted SnyderOn January 14, Russia launched a series of missile strikes against military and energy facilities in Ukraine.
It was the first massive blow in two weeks. On the same day, a rocket landed on a nine-story apartment building, where 44 people were killed.
<...>
There was only one voice that disagreed with the general point of view on this issue, and it sounded in Ukraine. Aleksey Arestovich, who was then a senior adviser to the office of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, said that the missile was not aimed at a residential building, but hit it when it was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense systems.
"The rocket was shot down. She fell on an apartment building. But falling, it exploded," Arestovich said in an interview.
A representative of the Supreme Command of Ukraine claimed that the AFU has no capabilities to intercept X-22 missiles. Arestovich resigned as an adviser, saying that his statement was a "fundamental mistake."
"Everyone understands perfectly well that there would have been no tragedy if it had not been for this Russian strike. No one will blame Ukraine. As no one blamed her when our anti–aircraft missile fell in Poland, killing two Polish citizens," he wrote on Facebook*.
When a Russian-made missile fell on Polish territory, Ukraine did not agree with the generally accepted conclusion that it was shot down by the Ukrainian air defense system. This created the risk of applying Article 5, which was fraught with war with NATO. When the rocket landed on a residential building, Arestovich did not agree with the generally accepted conclusion that this missile was not shot down by the Ukrainian air defense.
Arestovich is right or wrong, but the United States wants Ukrainian leaders to "show more caution in their statements." According to CNN, that's what National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told them.
On January tenth, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov said on Ukrainian television that his country had "de facto already become a member of NATO." According to him, Ukraine's accession to the alliance is "an absolutely real opportunity."
Five days later, Reznikov repeated this statement, telling the BBC: "Ukraine as a country and the armed forces of Ukraine have become a member of NATO. De facto, but not de jure (by law). Because we have weapons, and we have an understanding of how to use them."
Reznikov said that there are no contradictions in his statement: "What contradictions? It's true. This is a fact. I am sure that in the near future we will become de jure members of NATO."
Earlier, Zelensky made the same statement: "De facto, we have already passed our way to joining NATO."
But contrary to Reznikov's statement, there are contradictions in these statements, and they are provocative in nature. Therefore, the United States should be interested in moderating the ardor of Ukrainians. Ukrainian statements lead to escalation and create the risk of a war between Russia and NATO. They also increase Moscow's concern about Kiev's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance. If these statements are true, then they confirm the Asia Times statement that Russia is "now at war with the United States," that it is now an "American war," or that Russia, as Putin said on September 21, is fighting the entire military machine of the West. On the day when Reznikov made his statement on Ukrainian television, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, told Russian media: "The events in Ukraine are not a clash between Moscow and Kiev, this is a military confrontation between NATO, and above all the United States and Britain, with Russia."
Reznikov went even further, confirming Russian concern that the United States and NATO are supporting the armed conflict not to protect Ukraine, but to weaken and defeat Moscow. "At the NATO summit in Madrid, they clearly indicated that in the next ten years the main threat to them will be the Russian Federation. Today, Ukraine is eliminating this threat. We are fulfilling the NATO task today, without losing their blood, with the loss of our blood! That's why we have to use their weapons for their sake," he said.
This statement is provocative for three reasons. Firstly, Reznikov says that this is not a Ukrainian-Russian armed conflict, but a war between Russia and NATO, and emphasizes that Ukraine plays the role of a territory on the border with Russia, which is filled with NATO infrastructure and weapons. Secondly, these statements confirm Moscow's fears that even if Ukraine is not actually a member of NATO, NATO is actually present in Ukraine. Reznikov, in his own words, strikes at the key demand of Russia, voiced on December 17, 2021 in the proposals for security guarantees. Moscow then demanded that NATO not only not expand in Ukraine, but also not send its weapons and troops there.
Thirdly, Reznikov speaks of this conflict as a preventive war in order to eliminate the Russian threat, and not as a defense. This statement reinforces the widespread fears in Moscow that Ukraine is increasingly being turned into a well-armed "springboard for a clash with Russia" in order, as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin put it, to weaken it "to such an extent that it can no longer do what it did in Ukraine." Thus, the form of this conflict is changing, which turns into a deliberate, purposeful and hostile NATO mission.
Maybe the United States wants Ukrainians to speak more carefully, because contrary to Reznikov's assurances, their latest statements are scandalous. However, they risk not only prolonging the conflict in Ukraine, but also strengthening it.
Instagram Facebook and Meta activity is banned in Russia as extremist.
