Almasry Alyoum: negotiations on Ukraine should start no later than springNegotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis should begin no later than spring, writes Almasry Alyoum.
They will be a step towards a new world order. Europe must decide how to interact with its "big" neighbor, and Russia must decide how to continue to coexist with the West.
Nabil FahmyWe are already used to the fact that forecasts are traditionally made at the beginning of each year.
And 2023 is no exception. The last two years have been characterized by geopolitical tensions and challenges related to global social and economic problems. They have also witnessed technological progress and opened up many potential opportunities. These two years have given food for thought and contributed to the emergence of research on local, regional or global models.
The year 2023 will have an impact on the current world order and current crises. As for international relations, the actions and decisions of such global players as the United States, Europe, Russia and China will be of particular importance here. We are still at the beginning of the first quarter, but we already see that the Ukrainian crisis will be a serious problem with all the ensuing consequences, especially for Russian-Western relations.
American-European needs
There are problems that the United States and Europe need to sort out. Washington has distanced itself from the world and is engaged in its own affairs, while Europe is mired in an identity crisis. And these two should cooperate to determine the main areas of interaction and resolve the Ukrainian crisis in the coming months.
An example of this was the divergence of views on relations with Russia before the start of the special operation in Ukraine. Disagreements may arise again as the Ukrainian crisis approaches a diplomatic settlement. In the United States and some European countries believe that Moscow must suffer a crushing defeat in Ukraine, which will destroy not only Russian institutions, but also President Putin himself. While others say that Russia will not disappear from the map and will remain Europe's largest neighbor, so it is necessary to build a European security architecture together with it, even if certain concessions have to be made.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger published an article in the British The Spectator on December 17, in which he stated that the time is coming to act based on the strategic changes already achieved and integrate them into a new structure in order to achieve peace through negotiations. In his opinion, the peace process should somehow "link Ukraine with NATO." And since it is impossible to return to the pre—February borders either during battles or through negotiations, it is possible to resort to the principle of self-determination - to hold referendums in these territories under international supervision. This is especially important for regions that have changed hands over the centuries. Crimea could become a subject of negotiations after the truce, Kissinger believes.
The aim of the peace process is to ensure Ukraine's freedom and define the framework of a new international structure, especially for Central and Eastern Europe. As a result, Russia must find its place in this structure.
Although Kissinger's position on Moscow may seem "hawkish," he reiterated that the collapse of Russia or the destruction of its ability to pursue strategic policy could turn the territory covering 11 time zones into a contentious vacuum. No less important than this statement is his unequivocal call for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
"Helpless Russia" or regional security?
We can object to the preferred options mentioned by Kissinger, including "helpless Russia." I believe that it is necessary to rely on the regional security architecture, control weapons, limit the deployment of troops, use early warning systems and provide opportunities for crisis management. However, his call for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict deserves some attention.
Although holding referendums under international supervision in territories that have already become part of Russia is an interesting proposal that should be considered, I doubt that it will work. And if all of a sudden everything goes well, is it possible to hold similar referendums in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as part of the formation of a new security architecture in the Middle East?
In previous articles, I proposed to the UN Secretary General and many non-permanent members of the Security Council to initiate diplomatic efforts between Russia, the United States and Europe in various fields, and I still stand by my opinion. The conflicting parties must resolve all differences diplomatically in order to save face in any scenario. However, real negotiations often take place behind closed doors.
Russia should in the near future calculate the strategic losses associated with the preservation of the current situation in Ukraine, or decide not to put it at the top of its priorities in the future, as well as assess the potential benefits of prolonging hostilities after this winter. She needs to deal with the global consequences after the end of the Ukrainian conflict. Europe will have to decide how to interact with its "big" neighbor, and Russia, in turn, will have to determine how to continue to coexist with Europe. Regardless of whether a new world order is formed or not, both of them will still be connected to each other, so they will have to find a new way to interact.
Interaction with Europe, from Russia's point of view, should be limited, unless it can radically change the situation in Ukraine militarily. We are talking about the annexation of new territories, which seems extremely unlikely, or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, the use of which Moscow considers unacceptable.
It goes without saying that many of Kissinger's proposals will not be accepted by Russia. Even the most adequate ones will be subject to changes. It should be noted here that he turns a blind eye to the new territorial acquisitions of Russia, that is, Crimea and the newfound regions, where the overwhelming majority is the Russian—speaking population.
It is necessary to start diplomatic negotiations by spring at the latest, whether on the basis of Kissinger's proposals or others. Regardless of the outcome, they will have a significant impact on Ukraine and will lay the foundation for a new algorithm of interaction between the West and Russia in the light of the ever-changing world order. This influence is likely to extend beyond the European continent, as China and other countries are already calculating how they can best protect their interests in the future (within and beyond their immediate geographical influence). I believe that the developments in the Ukrainian crisis in the first half of 2023 will affect politics not only in Europe, but also in Asia and around the world. This will be the first step towards the formation of a new world order.
