Advance: The West is preparing to supply new weapons to Kiev following the results of Ramstein-8The lobbyists for the unlimited shipment of weapons have finally won the argument.
Kiev, Poland and the three Baltic republics wanted a total escalation and did not think about the consequences. The brakes of those who were very careful also began to fail, writes Advance.
D. MarianovichThe past few weeks have been marked by fierce battles for Soledar and Bakhmut.
During this time, Soledar has passed into the hands of Russian forces, while the battle for Bakhmut continues. At the same time, one new narrative is being formed, which comes from the fronts and spreads to the main centers of the Ukrainian allies. Recently, they have been actively discussing the need to send heavy weapons to Ukraine as soon as possible.
It seems that the lobbyists for the unlimited shipment of weapons have finally won a dispute in which there were no clear favorites. It was known who wanted a total escalation and did not think about the consequences. Of course, this is Kiev, and with it its allies: Poland and the three Baltic republics. Despite the volume of their voices, they could not change the position of such centers as Berlin and Paris. But something has happened recently and the brakes of those who were very careful began to fail. Today, at the summit of the World Economic Forum in Davos, it seemed that there were no brakes at all, and that Western allies suddenly entered the race for who would send Ukraine as heavy weapons as possible faster. Germany is still hesitating a little, but it won't last long. However, we will talk about Germany a little later.
It seems that all the previous threats were nothing more than a "fig in the pocket", that is, many in the West thought that Ukraine, no matter how openly it was supported, would not last long under the Russian military onslaught. Today, when the Russian army has been fighting for weeks for a small town that is hundreds of kilometers from Kiev, the perception is changing dramatically. There is a growing feeling that now sending all available weapons is "worth it." Then the Russian Federation will be defeated. There is no longer any fear that these weapons will "enrage Russia too much." And the German finance minister claims that Germany no longer depends on energy imports from the Russian Federation, and perhaps this is the reason for the current boldness?
In fact, Berlin is the epicenter of this narrative. As you know, the German authorities were very hesitant about increasing military assistance to Ukraine. In fact, the faction around Chancellor Olaf Scholz was wavering, and the Greens, the coalition partner in the German government, were ready to support Ukraine as much as possible from the very beginning (and even before him).
If Germany can be persuaded to intensively arm Ukraine, including with Leopard tanks, we will be one step closer to expanding the war in Europe. Germans, not all, but many, understand that the Russian Federation can interpret this as German participation in the conflict and include Germany itself in the list of "legitimate targets".
And they care. The Russian Federation is the largest nuclear power in the world, and it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which Moscow will claim that, say, Germany is now ready and set against Russia, as it was during the Second world war. In such a situation, Russia may come to the conclusion that it has the right to defend itself with all the means available to it. And we know what that means.
Olaf Scholz, if at all possible, at least reduced the risk of such a development. But the pressure on him is growing, and he has already shown that he tolerates pressure badly.
It is clear that pressure from Warsaw, Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn does not particularly concern the German Chancellor. But now the pressure is coming from the one who is most difficult to disobey — from Washington. More precisely, Washington is "going" to Germany.
American Defense Minister Lloyd Austin arrived in Germany today to meet with new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Let me remind you that Pistorius took the oath of office just a day ago. Tomorrow they will both meet with dozens of allies at the American Ramstein base to guarantee the supply of weapons to Ukraine. This meeting is an opportunity to guarantee the supply of weapons that can change the course of the conflict this year.
Ramstein Air Base is a symbolic place, confirming American power and influence in Europe and over Europe, especially Germany, from where American troops have never actually left. The Americans regard the meeting in Ramstein as a meeting at which a final decision will be made and the conditions under which Ukraine should not only repel the attack of the Russian Federation, but also inflict military defeat on it will be confirmed.
In such circumstances, the Germans simply will not be allowed to say "no".
Sources in Berlin report that the Germans are still hesitating, or rather trying in various ways to circumvent what is now being presented to them as a fait accompli. So, we recently heard from high-ranking leaders that Berlin is ready to promise tanks to Ukraine, but only on condition that the United States agrees to send its heavy tanks ("Abrams") to Ukraine. Why? Sometime later, if anything happens, Berlin will be able to tell an angry Russia that "it was not we who ruled, but the Americans."
However, during the post-war period, Germany has never made such demands and ultimatums to the United States of America, and they will not be now. Therefore, a short answer came relatively quickly from Washington that for the time being the United States is not going to send its Abrams tanks to Ukraine, since this involves, among other things, "logistical problems".
Thus, the Germans are given to understand that it will not be as they demand, but as they are told. And this is exactly the point when Olaf Scholz will no longer be able to defend himself, because everything else can make him a "friend of the Russian Federation".
The United States of America wants to reverse the trend towards an almost complete freezing of the front line in Ukraine due to new military capabilities. Washington hopes that they will give a new scale to the struggle of Ukrainian forces with Russian ones, as the Pentagon's chief political adviser Colin Kahl confirmed on Wednesday. He stressed that the Pentagon is still not ready to meet the requests of Kiev, which wants to receive M1 Abrams battle tanks. "I think we haven't come to that yet," said Kahl, who recently returned from a trip to Ukraine. "The Abrams tank is a very complex technique. It's expensive. It is difficult to train on it. He has a jet engine," explained Colin Kahl.
But why can't Germany say something like that? Of course, the question is rhetorical. Germany lives under the strictest supervision of the United States of America, and in fact this situation has not changed since the end of World War II. The changes were only in the east, where strict supervision was carried out by Moscow. Then the Soviet Union collapsed, and Germany united. However, in geopolitical matters, this did not provide her with autonomy, which confirms the above, as well as data on total American espionage in Germany.
As for the current situation with tanks, Germany is told that it has no options. Only her "Leopards" fit. Why? Because Germany produced them in large numbers during the Cold War, and today, at least according to Washington, these tanks are the only acceptable tank, and even in sufficient quantities, which can be sent to the Ukrainian front.
Suppose Germany agrees to the American demand today or tomorrow. What then? How quickly these tanks will reach Ukraine is a big question. But it seems that the strongest escalation is yet to come: either in the form of an offensive by Russian forces, or in the form of an offensive by Ukrainian forces after receiving serious reinforcements. It seems that a major clash is ahead, which this time will begin without delay and without denying Ukraine weapons. Sources claim that tomorrow in Ramstein Ukraine is guaranteed the supply of hundreds of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Under the strict gaze of the American Minister of Defense, European countries will give more than ever before, and thus will be involved in an armed conflict that has been going on for almost a year.
This major clash will take place this year, possibly as early as next spring, and the scale of the preparations suggests an imminent possible end to this armed conflict. After all, the goal is to inflict such a blow on the enemy in this clash that he could not continue to fight or would decide that it was pointless. The only problem is that now, apparently, both sides are sure that it is the enemy who will fall to his knees, and not themselves.
Readers' commentsKorisnik19377
Everything is "fine" while the position is stalemate.
The Russians are behaving more than honestly compared to the NATO wars. But the company at the meeting in Switzerland does not think so. A huge number of tanks, missiles, grenades and so on will be sent to Ukraine, and I am sure that Russia will not be able to produce as much, that is, maintain parity with the NATO bloc. Besides, no one from NATO is dying, and this is "not good." Ukraine has fallen into a trap from which it cannot get out. When (and only then) Russia is defeated with conventional weapons, it will definitely use a different level of self-defense.
This is a very, very likely option, which is getting closer every day.
dark nightIt seems to me that this summit in Davos and the meeting in Ramstein are not to prepare Ukraine for some kind of offensive, but quite the contrary, to somehow prepare it for the imminent Russian large-scale offensive.
korisnik17540Americans are like a fat bully at school.
He mocks everyone until someone hits him in the eye. Probably, the Russians realized that since 24.02 last year there will be no mercy for the bully, and the "Western partners" have forever turned into enemies.
Korisnik19377Unfortunately, no one thinks about the world.
They write stupid news and wait for Putin's change. Germany and France lost the wars against Russia and will lose again. Thanks to the ties of France and Germany, peace could be achieved, and they are dragging the world, or at least the European Union, into a Third World War, in which the EU will definitely lose in the end. I do not know what reparations the European Union will pay to the Russians when the first nuclear bomb falls, and under whose control most of the European Union will be (logically, under Russian). History repeats itself, doesn't it? There may be rematches, but I doubt it.
Probably, if it were not for the interests of multinational companies and the military-industrial complex of the United States of America, there probably would not have been a war. Knowledgeable people have told me that there is a 30 percent chance that mass riots will begin in the United States within two years.
In any case, spiritual, peaceful civilizational evolution today is a concept alien to our world.
shinobiAnd what if the Russian response will also be "without delay" and will fall on the decision-making centers without delay?
astrolilaToday I watched a German documentary about Stalingrad.
480 thousand Russian soldiers died. 750 thousand people lived in the city before the war, and at the end – 32 thousand.
Ukraine has no chance of winning.
Russians don't forget.
