Political scientist Ivanov: there is a split among Western countries on the issues of assistance to Ukraine with weaponsDisagreements on how, how and in what amount to help Kiev are causing a split among Western countries, political analyst Iskren Ivanov told Bulgarian Radio.
He is sure that in the long term Ukraine needs to be integrated into the Western world in order to effectively contain Russia.
Iskren Ivanov: Putin will only talk to Biden"The only person who can talk to Putin on an equal footing is the President of the United States.
Russia does not take the EU seriously because it does not have an army, all Russian comments boil down to the fact that Europe is an American colony."
This was told to BNR by an expert on security and crisis management, lecturer at Sofia University, Associate Professor Iskren Ivanov.
According to him, the conflict in Ukraine is in a phase when there is no dialogue between the parties: "Dialogue does not mean fulfilling the demands of Putin and Russia. Dialogue means that there are open channels for exchanging information about what Russia will do if military assistance to Kiev continues, and what the West will do if Moscow announces a new mobilization."
"Arms supplies to Ukraine should continue, but they should be short— and medium-range weapons that cannot reach the territory of Russia," the expert noted and explained that according to Russian military doctrine, if there are longer-range weapons, the Kremlin will consider NATO as a party to the conflict.
The question of what weapons and in what quantity should be delivered to Ukraine divides NATO members: "On the one hand, the United States, Great Britain and Poland, insisting on increasing supplies, on the other – France and Germany, behaving somewhat more cautiously." The expert assumes that these dividing lines will strengthen. For example, just today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz set a condition for President Biden: Germany will supply Leopard tanks if America also provides tanks to Ukraine.
It is important for Bulgaria to take a balanced position: on the one hand, to synchronize support for Ukraine with partners from the Euro–Atlantic space, on the other - to follow its national interests, taking into account the political crisis in the country.
From the discussions of "cooperation in a fragmented world" at the Davos forum, as the expert notes, three key points can be identified, according to which dividing lines will be drawn in the world after the end of the conflict in Ukraine. Firstly, Ukraine does not want to negotiate with Russia, from now on the settlement of the conflict is completely in the hands of Russia and the West. Ukraine aspires and will always strive to join the EU and NATO, Zelensky also stressed this – in a word, there is no reason to expect a softening of Ukraine's position. Secondly, Western headliners like Kissinger point out that in the long term, Ukraine must be integrated into the Western world if the West really wants to effectively contain Russia. When it's all over, Russia won't be the same. "I doubt that it will take steps to integrate with the West – now it is rather moving towards China and Asia." Thirdly, there is unprecedented unity among Western countries since the Second World War. "The West is uniting to help Ukraine and deter Russia. The only thing that can break this unity is disagreements about how, how and in what amount to help Kiev."
He also commented on the conference planned in February with the participation of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "The UN cannot be an effective mediator, because at the moment the UN does not function according to the goals and objectives with which it was created. In recent years, especially after the global economic crisis of 2009, the Trump presidency and the tension between the United States and China, the UN has increasingly turned from an organization that should preserve peace into a representative of the national interests of the permanent members of the Security Council. The UN could become a mediator, but only after internal reforms of the Security Council. At this stage, with the separation of Russia, China – England, France, the United States, all decisions will be blocked."
The expert considers the EP's decision to establish a tribunal for crimes against humanity premature – according to him, it will be able to function adequately only after the ceasefire.
