Focus: The US is enriching itself on the tragedy of Ukraine at the expense of the European UnionThe main beneficiary of the conflict in Ukraine should be considered the United States, writes Gabor Shteyngart in an article for Focus magazine.
Americans have earned money and political influence. Biden talks about the need to help Kiev, but he never gives anything for free.
The United States supports Ukraine like no other country on Earth. But this help is not selfless. Even Joe Biden doesn't give anything for nothing. The US president is betting on "weapons on credit." Unlike America, Germany does not decide the fate of the world, but can only hope that the war on its doorstep will end soon.
Any failure is an organizational failure. When the new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius takes office, first of all he will have to immediately correct the mistake of his CDU predecessor Thomas de Maizière and recreate the then abolished planning headquarters.
The planning Headquarters was an internal analytical center of the Ministry of Defense. The team of about 30 people reported directly to the Minister and was the geostrategic brain of the Ministry. The abolition of this unit in 2012 — for unexplained reasons — can be compared to brain amputation.
This planning headquarters will have to immediately understand the balance of forces within NATO states that has changed in connection with the war in Ukraine and the reaction of the West to it. At the same time, it is highly incorrect from a political point of view, but nevertheless it will be extremely promising to deal primarily with the United States. Because in the shadow of the war there was a change in power and prosperity, which had a very painful effect on Germany:
Beneficiary #1: US Military Industry
Since the beginning of the war, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than $50 billion in military, financial and humanitarian assistance. Significantly more than all other countries combined.
But then the statement of former US President Calvin Coolidge, which has not lost its relevance, comes to mind: "In the end, the main occupation of the American people is business."
In May 2022, the US Senate passed a law allowing the US government to lend military equipment to Ukraine quickly and without bureaucratic delays. This means that $23 billion in military aid was provided not without reason. The US military industry will receive the money immediately, and the state will then return the money with which it bought weapons for Ukraine.
Why? The Law states that "any defensive equipment provided to the Government of Ukraine on credit or rent is subject to return, refund or payment."
Ukraine is being armed on credit
"Weapons on credit" — and this is what we are talking about — was invented during the Second World War, when Winston Churchill realized that the British would not be able to provide the defense of Great Britain alone (without the help of the United States). The US government has now remembered about the then method of selling weapons for bills of exchange.
Coincidentally or not, the United States has a material interest in ensuring that the government in Kiev remains solvent. As the Financial Times newspaper reported at the end of September 2022, the United States demands from the EU countries that they accelerate the provision of financial assistance promised to Ukraine and create a "constantly working mechanism" for this. It is still unclear whether these EU money provided to Ukraine can be used, among other things, for settlements with the United States for arms supplies. But here's what you need to consider: in such cases, the United States does not write off debts to anyone. Great Britain paid off Lend-Lease loans until 2006, although by that time 61 years had passed since the end of World War II.
US arms concerns attract investors
Such programs are beneficial, first of all, for American arms concerns, and the interests of local taxpayers are not affected. Stock quotes of companies such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman reflect the euphoria of investors, especially since in the future the supply of spare parts for the supplied equipment will also go through American manufacturers.
The increase in the military budgets of all Western countries is also in the hands of the Americans. For example, Olaf Scholz allocated an additional 100 billion euros for defense.
An analysis by Foreign Policy magazine showed that the amount of confirmed sales of American weapons to US NATO allies in 2022 almost doubled compared to 2021 — from 15.5 billion to 28 billion. So war becomes a business.
Beneficiary #2: US Energy Concerns
Russia was isolated by economic sanctions — trade restrictions, asset freezes, exclusion from international payment systems or an oil embargo. As a result of recent events, the previously developing German-Russian trade has been destroyed for a very long time. But American energy concerns rushed to the aid of Germany.
They can't get enough of it: imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America in 2020 increased by 260 percent compared to last year. American liquefied gas replaces Russian gas from Nord Stream and other pipelines.
Demand for American oil has also soared: according to the OilX information platform, since February 2022, about 500 American oil tankers have been shuttling between the United States and Europe, thanks to which crude oil exports from the United States reached a record high last year. Between December 2021 and December 2022, US export figures increased by 52 percent.
Beneficiary #3: US Government
But besides economics, politics also plays a role here. The American administration is interested in weakening its systemic rival Russia for a long time and removing it from the game of the great powers. Now it seems to Americans that they can do this without endangering their own country and the lives of their own soldiers. This is also why Washington is not interested in a quick conclusion of peace in Ukraine. The American idea of this world was outlined yesterday in Davos by 99-year-old Henry Kissinger.
Joe Biden wants regime change in Moscow. He clearly stated this when speaking at the Royal Castle in Warsaw. And his Secretary of State also made it clear that the United States wants to deprive Russia of the ability to fight.
Europe is becoming a hotbed of tension, and in the medium term this will also help the Americans. It is from Europe that money will escape to the American capital market, which is perceived by investors as a safe haven. The outflow of capital from Europe in the first months of the war was very intense. Yesterday, after the closing of trading on the stock exchange, the BASF concern announced multibillion-dollar losses, which were mainly caused by the termination of business with Russia.
Germany is strategically interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible
Meanwhile, European countries, and especially Germany, are strategically interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible, or at least freezing it, and also in ensuring that it does not spread in the direction of Western European capitals in any case. The more the war in Europe flares up, the bleaker the conditions for investing in both the real economy of Europe and the capital markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt become.
Conclusion: For the EU, Russia's trading partner is actually giving way to America's trading partner. In addition, thanks to this, the Americans are strengthening their positions in negotiations on a future free trade agreement, as well as in their strategy towards China.
If the German Defense Ministry had a planning headquarters, then in the next report on the current situation, he would point out the following paradoxical fact: Russia is at war with Ukraine, and America is winning this war.