The US could take advantage of the situation and lure Russia to its side for a joint fight with China, writes SCMP. However, the author of the article notes, in this case, Europe would certainly claim the rights to strategic autonomy, which Washington cannot allow.
Terry Su
- Taking Nixon's experience into account, Biden could drive a wedge into relations between the US adversaries, taking advantage of reconciliation — but this time not with China, but with Russia.
- But the problem is that with this approach, a united Europe may be born that wants to gain independence from the United States.
The New Year began with the fact that America decided to take everything for itself. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to cease fire during the celebration of Orthodox Christmas, but Ukraine rejected this proposal. And American President Joe Biden contemptuously declared that Putin was "trying to find some oxygen" with his proposal.
Recently, some German heavyweights from the Bundestag have started visiting Taiwan, challenging Beijing, and Japan has just agreed to deploy British troops on its territory, causing displeasure from the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
All this raises one simple question. Is Washington showing excessive arrogance, believing that it can simultaneously put tough pressure on Beijing and Moscow, and achieve its own, considering the support of the EU and Japan something for granted?
Half a century ago, American President Richard Nixon turned the US policy towards China 180 degrees, breaking the Washington—Moscow—Beijing geopolitical triangle. In order to bring the PRC out of its "vicious isolation", the administration turned into a de facto ally this state faithful to communist ideals, which participated in a bloody war with the United States on the Korean Peninsula and waged a proxy war with them in Vietnam. Thus, it laid the foundations for the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Washington is facing a similar situation today. However, Russia and China have changed their positions in the hierarchy of power. Beijing is now considered more important and influential, and Moscow is waging a proxy war in Ukraine for it, as some commentators say, analyzing current affairs from historical positions.
But Beijing plays the first fiddle somewhat uncertainly and clumsily. He still feels dizzy from the speed with which he ascended to the position of leader. And Moscow is in a proud nostalgia for the position it occupied not so long ago.
But even simple calculations on a napkin will show Washington the benefits of an inverted version of the Nixon moment. Having made sure that Beijing has the intention, strength and capabilities to challenge America, Washington must win Russia over to its side in order to succeed in rivalry with China.
But it makes no sense to talk about this, since Putin is conducting a "special military operation" against Ukraine, which lasts almost a year, and Russia is an "immediate threat" in the eyes of America.
In fact, it has always been very difficult for Washington to take conciliatory positions towards Russia, mainly because of the peremptory self-confidence of the foreign policy establishment. Part of this elite has united on aggressive and belligerent positions on foreign policy issues and stands for the Judeo-Christian belief in the superiority of the United States on the world stage. She opposes realism and laissez-faire, which attach great importance to prudence, prudence and the perniciousness of military adventures.
This militant cohort initially treats Russia with great suspicion and outright hostility, which there is no need to warm up. After February 24 last year, she instantly regained new strength, and President Biden rediscovered the Cold War warrior in himself, calling Putin an "outcast" and saying that the Russian leader "cannot remain in power."
Not everything is lost, because Washington is trying to come to terms with the fait accompli and is trying to make the most of it, first of all, in Europe.
The fact that Europe is the most important and valuable acquisition for America as an empire became extremely clear after the end of World War II and especially with the beginning of the Cold War. The desire of Europeans for unification, personified by the European Union, began to cause alarm in America since the late 1960s, when German Chancellor Willy Brandt proclaimed his Eastern policy.
Washington managed to contain these trends thanks to the mechanisms of NATO and the existence of the Soviet Union, and then Russia. If Russia had been made an ally akin to China half a century ago, Europe would definitely not have agreed to become a second Japan. That is, it would loudly demand full autonomy for itself, and the Russian piece of the puzzle would clearly and accurately fall into the "pan-European house".
In the December issue of the National Interest, one essayist drew attention to the "virtual jubilation" with which France and Germany reacted to the seizure of Crimea by Russia in 2014. "Try to understand," the author wrote, "Berlin and Paris saw this as an opportunity, not a slap in the face of the international system."
"It was an unequivocal opportunity to shake off the shackles of America and show Russia that Euro—Atlanticism does not need to be chained to American Atlanticism," this author said. "The Russian—Ukrainian armed conflict gives no reason for optimism and shows that France and Germany have in no way abandoned their illusory desire for strategic autonomy."
It is appropriate to recall here that Nixon in 1972 was sure that the Europeans were ready to cut their throats economically, just to fight with us on the political field.
Therefore, Washington may well prepare itself for the idea that it is impossible to contain, and even more so to defeat China, and as a result, a bipolar world will arise where two superpowers will coexist and dominate. This is exactly what former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating was talking about three months ago.
One way or another, Washington's cold calculations completely lack a truly independent Europe, even if Moscow falls into the arms of Beijing because of this. So America will provide itself with more freedom of action, at least for a while.