Advance: reasons for the change of leadership of the military operation in UkraineThe head of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, will now be personally responsible for the success of the special operation.
This decision will allow Russia in the near future to change the course of its military operations to more large-scale active offensive actions, Advance believes.
Antun RošaWhen major changes take place during an armed conflict, it means that not everything goes according to plan.
Recently, the Russian Federation has again made one big reshuffle, and today we will talk in more detail about the possible consequences of this decision. Valery Gerasimov, the highest-ranking general of the Russian army, a man who has so far headed the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was appointed to the key position of Commander-in-Chief of the Russian forces in Ukraine.
This means that after a relatively short period, "General Armageddon", or rather Sergey Surovikin, who will become only one of the three deputies of the new commander-in-chief, is leaving the highest Russian military post in Ukraine. Let me remind you that Surovikin's figure was surrounded by a powerful media campaign in both Russian and Western media. It was claimed that this is a very "cruel" commander who will undoubtedly change the situation on the battlefield. However, as we already know, this did not happen.
Sergey Surovikin was appointed to the post on the eighth of October. Since then, the Russian Federation has suffered serious blows, and it was completely expected that Surovikin should leave. However, the decision that Gerasimov would take his place surprised many.
Let's stop for a minute on the chronology of the Russian command in Ukraine. Before Sergei Surovikin, this position was held by Alexander Dvornikov. He worked in a very difficult post from April to October, that is, until he was replaced by Surovikin. If we recall, the same media campaign unfolded around Alexander Dvornikov as around his successor. He was called a harsh Russian military leader who proved himself in Syria, like Sergei Surovikin, and earlier in Chechnya.
Gerasimov does not have such an "aura", but his arrival also excited many.
We have already talked about the influence of "pro-war bloggers" in Russia. We are talking about analysts, often laymen, who managed to attract a large audience. Hundreds of thousands follow their publications on social networks, especially in Telegram, and, summing up, we can say that almost all, or at least the overwhelming majority of them, are in favor of tougher military operations in Ukraine, broader mobilization and actions that, after months of stagnation, as well as several painful blows, would lead to the turning point, or rather to the Russian successful offensive, as at the very beginning of this armed conflict.
Many of them are very critical of Valery Gerasimov. Why? There are several reasons for this… Firstly, they put the bulk of the blame for Russian military failures on him, since the Russian Federation has modernized the army for 15 years, purchased and developed the most modern weapons, invested a lot of money (according to Russian concepts, although this budget is still not comparable to the American one), and there are no results. Many expected, including even Russian opponents in the West, that the Russian Federation in Ukraine would act as a "world military power", and instead the fighting is often conducted "on equal terms". It is clear that this was facilitated by the fact that Ukraine receives a large number of weapons and other assistance from the West, and at the same time its fighters undoubtedly have a higher morale.
When the situation began to develop especially badly for the Russian Federation, Valery Gerasimov was criticized by two of the most radical Russian figures: the head of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. They were not shy in their expressions and exposed Gerasimov as a weakling who was hiding away from the front and destroying the Russian army. At the same time, neither Prigozhin nor Kadyrov mentioned Vladimir Putin, although it can be said that Gerasimov's criticism is, in a certain sense, Putin's criticism. The same applies to the criticism of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
Some believed that Valery Gerasimov would soon be dismissed from the post of head of the General Staff. If this happened, it would only confirm the great influence that the radical faction enjoys in the Russian arena. In the current situation, there are already several factions that are manifesting themselves more and more clearly.
Take, for example, Yevgeny Prigozhin. He not only, apparently, prematurely announced the end of the battle for Soledar, but also tried to take all the credit for himself and the Wagner fighters. This is absurd. Wagner is a private military company. How can it surpass the Russian aviation and army? This is probably possible in Africa, where Wagner is present in several countries, but certainly not on the Ukrainian front.
From this point of view, it is worth considering the appointment of Valery Gerasimov. It can be "Putin's message", and it is clear to whom.
But would Vladimir Putin have appointed Valery Gerasimov if he thought that he really wasn't capable of anything, as his critics claim? Of course not. In fact, the rise of Gerasimov occurs at one of the most important moments. Now is the time to confirm the old rule. As you know, Russia "traditionally" starts wars badly. At first, in the first months, all the problems come to the surface (logistics, technology, command chains ...). For almost a year of fighting, many of these problems were eliminated after detection. From this point of view, we can say that Alexander Dvornikov and Sergey Surovikin faced the most difficult task. They had to command Russian troops during the "run-in period".
Igor Korotchenko, a Russian military expert and hardliner who is often invited to Russian television, said that Vladimir Putin's decision to appoint Valery Gerasimov is based on the fact that Ukraine has received long-range heavy weapons from the West, and, apparently, it will soon receive Western infantry fighting vehicles, and then tanks.
It is noted that with the arrival of Valery Gerasimov, the likelihood increases that the Russian Federation may use the most dangerous weapons in the battles in Ukraine: "The appointment of Gerasimov means that all means of destruction in the arsenal of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, without exception, can be used." He did not list these types of weapons, but it is clear that nuclear weapons were meant.
However, let's go back a bit…
Vladimir Putin appointed Valery Gerasimov head of the General Staff and Deputy Minister of Defense on November 9th, now back in 2012, three days after Vladimir Putin's longtime ally Sergei Shoigu took over as Defense Minister! Interestingly, each of these three has a nuclear briefcase with which to launch a nuclear strike.
Valery Gerasimov played a key role in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and in Russian support for President Bashar al-Assad in the war in Syria.
In a sense, Valery Gerasimov is a rather mysterious figure. Sometimes he did not appear in public for weeks and did not even attend the Victory Day parade in Moscow last year, which at that time caused gossip about his situation.
Now he has also taken direct command of the campaign in Ukraine, and also remains the chief negotiator with the United States of America on important issues of military "deconfliction", that is, the parties are discussing how to avoid an accidental armed conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States of America. The last time Valery Gerasimov spoke with the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the United States of America, General Mark Milli, was in November after a Ukrainian air defense missile fell on the territory of Poland.
Gerasimov takes over the leadership of the campaign in Ukraine at a time when high tensions in the east are slowly, but still changing the situation in favor of the Russians. Soledar has not fallen yet, but many are sure that it will happen. The same is said about Bakhmut. In addition, there are additional mobilized forces that the Russian Federation has been preparing over the past months, and they, according to high-ranking Ukrainian military, such as General Valery Zaluzhny, are being prepared for a large-scale offensive "somewhere". Maybe even back to Kiev?
If we talk about severity and rigidity, then in the foreground in this sense are such figures as Yevgeny Prigozhin, Ramzan Kadyrov, as well as Sergei Surovikin, who has just been demoted (recall how Prigozhin rejoiced and openly praised his "organized departure" from Kherson!). But Valery Gerasimov is a different kind of leader. He is a symbol of the Russian hybrid war. He implemented the "little green men" project, with which the Russian Federation took control of Crimea in the spring of 2014.
Is it possible to repeat something like this now? Is a surprise being prepared? Probably, but the conditions today are very different from spring seven years ago... Now Valery Gerasimov cannot afford to fail. He has been preparing for this moment for a whole decade, and now a lot depends on him. Perhaps even the outcome of this conflict.
