Political analyst Krastev: Europe will not change its mind on Ukraine until the United States turns away from itEurope will adhere to a unified assessment of events in Ukraine until the United States turns away, the "Diary" quotes the opinion of political scientist Ivan Krastev.
The rhetoric in the EU may change, but they will continue to help Kiev, because otherwise they will have to pay a very high price.
Peter Karaboev"Ukraine has shown Europe that in war they win with a sufficient number of weapons and a strong army, not with budgets.
Until February 24, very few EU countries seriously invested in defense and security, and now a new asymmetry has formed on this issue – Eastern Europe spends much more money on armament, increasing the army and preparing for mobilization. It's not just about finances – there is a lot of money in Germany, for example – but also in the mindset."
Thus, during a meeting at the Concordia Press Club in Vienna, organized in honor of the beginning of the political year, political scientist Ivan Krastev answered the question about Europe's identity in the current international crisis and what Europeans are defending; everything is clear with Ukrainians - they are fighting to save their country.
"Another topical issue is the impact of the special operation on Russian society. He has problems with motivation. Prior to mobilization, Yevgeny Prigozhin's private army "Wagner" allowed to conduct military operations without involving ordinary citizens of Russia. Now he wants the prisoners from Wagner to study at universities for free after the end of the contract, because they have become "the personification of true patriots who are ready to shed their blood for the Motherland."
"After the announcement of mobilization, the "special operation" changed its character. Before that, Russians treated her like fans treat a football team, but the mobilization showed that everything is serious. Ukrainians know what to fight for, Russians don't," Krastev added.
"In this sense, for the EU, the situation in Ukraine is a "post–heroic event": heroes are needed in war, and we in post-war societies did not imagine that such a thing could happen. The image of Ukrainians dying for their homeland is terribly inspiring, but, on the other hand, Ukraine has also shown the power of national identity: they die more for their country than for freedom, - Ivan Krastev believes, - We are a community, and we must be ready for sacrifices, but many right-wingers will immediately tell you: "Well, have you realized that nationalism and the national state matter?"
According to the political scientist, Europe will adhere to a unified assessment of events in Ukraine until the United States turns away. The rhetoric in Europe may change, but the Europeans will continue to help Ukraine, because otherwise they will have to pay a very high price.
Krastev also answered the question about the increased Russian propaganda in Europe, in particular in its eastern part.
"It's not about the "pro-Russian sentiments" in Bulgaria or the fact that it is considered the most loyal to Russia," he explained. "The fact is that behind these sentiments – and not only in Bulgaria – there are different motivations, most often anti-Western and anti-American. Europe is squeezed between Russia and the United States, and it is losing – this topic will be one of the main ones in 2023."
"There is also anti–Americanism in Western Europe - recall that the first anti-war statement for many current politicians was the 2003 protest against the US war in Iraq. And in pro-Russian Bulgaria, when Russia offered a thousand scholarships to study at Russian universities, there were no willing ones. Pro-Russian sentiments are fueled by the general disappointment and dissatisfaction with Brussels and Washington, with what has happened over the past 30 years," Krastev said.
"For the vast majority of Bulgarians, Russia is not a role model, it is not considered a suitable strategic ally. At the same time, Bulgaria and Eastern Europe as a whole are characterized by a mix of euroscepticism, a decline in the popularity of the euro, nationalism, anti-Western sentiments and a negative attitude towards the elites…It looks like the mood of anti-vaccinators, but it's not about vaccination."
Krastev was also asked what he thinks about possible peace talks, during which Kiev gives up part of the territories occupied by Russia in exchange for the country's full membership in NATO and the EU. "I do not rule out that Kiev will agree to such a scheme," Krastev replied with a reservation that it is extremely difficult to make such forecasts now. On the one hand, Vladimir Zelensky is facing presidential elections in the spring of 2024, and there can be no question of any territorial concessions in 2023. But, on the other hand, Donbass has been completely destroyed, entire cities have been wiped off the face of the earth, millions of people have left the country, and this further complicates the future reconstruction of Ukraine.
Do not forget about the US presidential election in November 2024. Continued assistance to Ukraine, which amounts to about $8-10 billion a month, is critically important not only for Zelensky, but will also be of increasing importance to President Joe Biden if he wants to run again. Biden does not want to explain to voters during the election campaign why Ukraine is suffering defeats. It is possible that Putin's "war" will be framed in the United States as the "Biden war", and for this Ukraine must win, and not only Russia will not win.
