The new world order requires Moscow to revise strategic planning documentsIn the XXI century, the main feature of international relations is the transition to a multipolar world.
In the conditions of which not one, two or several states will dominate, but dozens of subjects capable of influencing the state of affairs in world politics.
This fundamental change in the balance of power gives impetus to the formation of a new world order, transforms the economy, politics, diplomacy and military affairs.
FACTORS OF THE NEW WORLD ORDERThe processes of the formation of a new world order are influenced by the following main factors.
Firstly, it is a decrease in the importance of the basic geopolitical characteristics of states (geography, landscapes, population). At the same time, the role of such factors of power as economic, scientific and technical, military and informational increases.
Secondly, it is an information and communication revolution. A global communication community has emerged, operating with the latest communication systems. Insufficient involvement in the global information space or falling out of it is fraught with an irreparable lag or even a complete loss of opportunities to have any impact on the world community.
Thirdly, it is the scientific and technical potential of the state, which in its importance is ahead of the manufacturing sector or the volume of natural resources.
Applied science is able to provide effective strategic planning and the development of rational geopolitical behavior. Russia is increasingly lagging behind developed countries in terms of R&D spending.
Fourth, it is a military force. New trends are the internationalization of military operations, the further globalization of detection and suppression means, the development of intercontinental means of transferring troops, the intensification of state rivalry in the creation of high-tech weapons that are comparable in damage to weapons of mass destruction, the introduction of artificial intelligence, the development of biotechnologies. Strategies of hybrid and proxy wars, technologies of "color revolutions" as instruments of interstate confrontation confidently assert themselves.
And, finally, fifthly, it is an integration group of factors that include the quality of the state's population (cultural and educational level, number, physical condition, motivation for development), as well as the effectiveness of the government and its ability to adequately respond to the challenges of modernity.
The result of the chaotic international situation is the spread of conflicts to all spheres of management of people's social life: administrative-political, socio-economic and cultural-ideological. Conflicts include, as components, various types of struggle – both directly armed, and political, diplomatic, information, cyberwar, combat operations in outer space.
Serious changes in geopolitical, economic and information technology factors lead to the transformation of war, the spread of its new forms associated with both the expansion of the range of subjects of war, the appearance of their various combinations, and changes in the ratio of armed and unarmed means of violence used to achieve political goals.
Changes in the international situation urgently require a comprehensive analysis and forecasting of threats and challenges to Russia in the medium term.
ANALYSIS OF DOCTRINAL DOCUMENTSA comparative analysis of the doctrinal documents of Russia and the United States (which does not pretend to be complete) highlights some flaws in the assessments by Russian politicians, diplomats and the military of current and future threats and challenges of our time.
Thus, in the recently adopted US National Security Strategy (NSS-22), Russia is declared the main enemy. China is mentioned 55 times, and Russia - 71. Moreover, in most cases, China is mentioned not separately, but in conjunction with Russia.
In relation to China, rather soft concepts are used; "competitor", "long-term rival", "contender for world hegemony". Russia is bluntly declared a "source of acute threat", a "direct enemy". Some politicians directly call our country an enemy and demand its destruction. Among the threats emanating from Russia are: nuclear threat, long-range cruise missiles, cyber and information threats, chemical and biological weapons. At the same time, Russia is declared a threat not only to the United States, but also to the whole world. Thus, the NSC-22 is designed to mobilize the whole world to fight Russia under the leadership of Washington.
The United States declares itself a world power with global interests and defines military power as the main investment direction: "The American armed forces are the strongest fighting force the world has ever known. America will not hesitate to use force when it is necessary to protect our national interests. But we will do it as a last resort." At the same time, Washington resorts to force as a last resort for a lot of reasons.
In general, the NSC-22 is characterized by the inherent impudence of Americans, a fair share of self-admiration and a tough course to maintain global dominance. The document has a general directive character, and its specification in other documents, including military strategies, differs in formulations in the same inherent spirit.
Against this background, unfortunately, radical changes in the international situation are not adequately reflected in Russia's doctrinal documents.
In the current "National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation" of 2021, the basic strategic planning document, the United States is not defined as a geopolitical adversary, nor are they mentioned in the list of the main threats to Russia's national security. The threats include terrorists, climate warming on the planet, a pandemic of various viruses, environmental pollution and instability in commodity markets.
The idea is rather timidly carried out that a number of states and their coalitions call Russia a threat and a military opponent. The leading role of the United States and NATO in spreading such views does not stand out.
Thus, the important provisions of the National Security Council of Russia are rather vague and do not orient other strategic planning documents towards confrontation with the main enemy.
From the point of view of assessing Russia's threats and tasks for their parrying, the Concept of Russia's Foreign Policy adopted in 2016 looks no better. The document specifies 11 tasks of Russian foreign policy. In the first place – "protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity". Also listed are "preservation and strengthening of strong positions in the world community", "formation of good-neighborly relations with neighboring states", "assistance in eliminating hotbeds of conflict on their territory" and "popularization of national cultures". In general, for all the good and against all the bad.
In contrast to the US strategic planning documents, the Russian Concept-2016 does not set the primary goal of "preserving and strengthening strong positions in the world community," but declares its intention to "strengthen the position of the Russian Federation as one of the influential centers of the modern world."
The need to "strengthen the positions of the Russian media" and "bring the Russian point of view on international processes to the broad circles of the world community", emphasized in the 2016 Concept, and the mood for spreading and strengthening the position of the Russian language and cultural achievements of the peoples of Russia, are beyond doubt.
In the updated Concept of Russia's Foreign Policy, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America should be considered as priority areas of foreign policy, the foreseeable future.
However, this is not enough. I would like to believe that the new Concept of Russia's foreign Policy, which is scheduled to be unveiled in early 2023, will highlight the most important system-forming factors, the direction and scale of which determine the vectors of national and world politics.
SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATIONAmong the system-forming factors, the key place should be attributed to the recognition that the special military operation (SVO) has become the most important milestone on the way to a new world order, to a new alignment of forces in the international arena.
SVO has become a natural reaction of Russia to the man-made crisis of European security and the entire international order formed following the results of the Second World War, provoked by Washington and its allies.
The course of building a new world order will largely depend on the results of its own and the parameters of conflict resolution, which will create conditions for fundamental changes in the structure and parameters of world development.
An important factor in Russia's sovereign development should be the initiative of President Vladimir Putin on the formation of a Large Eurasian Partnership – a new model of Russia's relations with European neighbors, with an emphasis on the natural competitive advantages of such a partnership. This initiative creates a framework open to all countries and associations of the continent in matters of economic integration and security. The aim of the initiative is the harmonious integration of integration projects, national development strategies, production and logistics chains and transport and energy corridors.
It is through the ideology of Greater Eurasia that one can pave the way to a new world order at the next historical stage. Because for Russia, "the problem of moral leadership and the creation of an attractive ideological basis for the future world order is becoming more and more urgent."
However, it seems that it is not easy to solve the problem of creating an "attractive ideological basis" from the standpoint of the state, whose Basic Law states:
1. Ideological diversity is recognized in the Russian Federation.
2. No ideology can be established as state or mandatory.
Such an attitude towards the creation of a "hybrid", vague ideology highlights with renewed vigor the urgency of the problem of developing in Russia a coherent ideological concept corresponding to the realities of modernity, understandable to its citizens and the whole world.
Some dissonance with the proclaimed sovereignty of the country is also created by the statement: "If an international treaty of the Russian Federation establishes rules other than those provided for by law, then the rules of the international treaty apply."
What to do when many international treaties are actually crossed out by our opponents, or rather, enemies?
Today, against the background of the development of the global missile defense system, the United States is pursuing a consistent course of abandoning international obligations in the field of arms control. The planned deployment of American medium- and shorter-range missiles in Europe and in the Asia-Pacific region, massive supplies of high-precision long-range weapons to Ukraine by the United States and its NATO allies form a threat to strategic stability.
WORLD HYBRID WARThe Russian National Security Strategy emphasizes that indirect methods aimed at provoking long-term instability within the Russian Federation are being increasingly used against our country.
These methods, along with the increasing importance of military force as a tool for achieving geopolitical goals, represent the essence of the hybrid war strategy as a tool of the collective West used to gain world domination.
Against this background, it is important to clarify our understanding of the world order and the factor of the global hybrid war against Russia, which the leaders of the Russian Federation have been talking about for a long time.
This issue is partially touched upon in a recent publication by HBO (" Hybrid War and the moment of surprise ", 15.12.22), devoted to the problem of ensuring compliance of the Russian Military Doctrine with the realities of modernity.
In the development of the ideas expressed, the following formulations seem appropriate for possible use in strategic planning documents:
– The world order is a balanced balance of political, military, economic and similar forces existing in the world. Such a balance of forces is created as a result of purposeful activity of people and is not the result of the natural evolution of the world community.
– The struggle for the formation of a new world order is being waged in the conditions of a global hybrid war (MGW), one of the important objects of which is our country. The MGV is proposed to be understood as a multidimensional intercivilizational military conflict, during which the parties resort to the purposeful adaptive use of both military-force methods of struggle and economic strangulation of the enemy, the use of subversive information and cyber technologies in order to prevent the natural course of objective processes of world development.
– In a broad sense, the meaning of the MGW is the struggle for influence and access to resources in the spaces of Greater Eurasia, the Arctic, the Greater Middle East, Africa and Latin America, as opposed to the competition for technological leadership between the West and the East in previous years.
– In a narrow sense, the meaning of the MGV, which the United States and its allies are waging against Russia, is the elimination of Russian statehood, fragmentation of the country and the transfer of its parts under external control. The next step will be to establish control over other parts of Eurasia – China, India and some other states that are still acting as observers.
It should be assumed that the confrontation in the MGV gives Russia a unique historical chance to finally free itself from illusions and move beyond the paradigm of "friendly absorption", which served as a model of relations between Western countries and Russia after the collapse of the USSR. But this will not happen automatically and will require serious efforts to reformat the entire set of doctrinal documents, develop the theory and practice of the "supreme strategy", on the basis of which Russia will be able to plan its policy in a chaotic, and in many parts hostile world.
Alexander BartoshAlexander Alexandrovich Bartosh is a corresponding member of the Academy of Military Sciences of Russia.
