Al-Masry Al-Youm: the new Cold War will turn into a nightmare for the worldEveryone is "fed up" with the US hegemony, and the Ukrainian crisis has accelerated the transition to a multipolar world order, writes Al-Masry Al-Youm.
Some are betting on Putin, others on Xi Jinping. But this transformation is associated with illusions about the future world and the absence of an internationalist ideology.
Due to the international polarization around the conflict in Ukraine and the crises caused by it around the world, some analysts have a feeling that we will soon enter a new cold war. This idea is firmly rooted in the public consciousness, especially since the Ukrainian crisis is nearing its first anniversary and there are no signs of its completion yet.
What we used to write about in the media has now become a political analysis. Some of us were wishful thinking, referring to so-called "informed sources" whose words can neither be refuted nor confirmed. Here the main question arises: why didn't this and that happen?
We now see the same thing in political analysis. There is a group of government and public figures dissatisfied with the exclusivity of the United States and its almost absolute domination over the world. They are outraged by the policy of the Americans and what they did in Iraq in 2003, not to mention their support for Israel and their inability to insist on the creation of a Palestinian state. Those who suffered from the "Arab Spring" and consider it a conspiracy blame the Obama administration for everything. Others believe that since the "Arab Spring" has not destroyed all the regimes in the region, it means that the United States supports them. Note that both groups, despite the existence of contradictions, are unanimous in one thing — everything in this world happens according to the will of America. Peoples, societies and institutions play no role in the rise or fall of Governments and regimes.
Most people are fed up with American hegemony. They dream of the return of the Cold War, the emergence of a force capable of competing with the United States, the creation of a "third bloc" that would play the role of the Non-Aligned Movement, as in the 60s.
Some analysts are convinced that Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, could compete with the United States. The reason for this is the beginning of a special operation in Ukraine (the purpose of which is to prevent this country from joining NATO), the comprehensive support of Iran and the sympathy of a number of states for Putin.
Others are leaning towards China and its leader Xi Jinping. Beijing is coming on the heels of the United States in trade and economic issues, not to mention the growth of its military power and the development of advanced weapons, as has been repeatedly stated by various American research centers.
And still others consider it possible to unite China and Russia against America. But they forgot that Beijing was in strained relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The United States, since the days of Kissinger and Nixon, has used China as a "thorn" that weakened and put pressure on Soviet Russia.
It seems that most of the Arabs believe that we have entered a new cold war. Egypt took part in the US-Africa summit, after which it asked the question: we are with America or with Russia... China? It should be added that the US-Africa summit was held after the Arab-Chinese summit in Riyadh.
The Cold War began in 1947 between the countries that were allies and winners in the Second World War. Let's remember that Joseph Stalin, the Soviet leader, was an ally of Winston Churchill, the leader of the Conservative Party of Great Britain, and Eisenhower, one of the most famous presidents of the United States during the war. After the war, their interests clashed.
The special operation in Ukraine is still ongoing. It is obvious that neither side will be able to achieve an absolute victory. The crisis has moved to the stage of exhaustion of the enemy, attacks on cities and destruction of infrastructure. Putin could have done from the very beginning the same thing that happened in Hiroshima at the end of World War II. But he did not go for it, trying to avoid comparisons with Adolf Hitler. NATO is helping Ukraine so that it can hold out longer, not so that it defeats Russia. The military conflict must end with negotiations. Each of the parties will have to make concessions, that is, none of them will be completely excluded from the equation. Germany was defeated in World War II, and its capital was divided in half. Such a fate does not threaten either side. None of them will be so humiliated.
Regardless of the outcome and duration, the most important axis around which the Cold War revolved was ideology. The Soviet Union adhered to the theory of Marxism-Leninism. It relied on the rule of one party defending the interests of the proletariat. There were no other competitors, since they were classified as "ideological heresy" and "traitors".
This theory is based on the idea of a managed economy, that is, it rejects the role of the private sector and considers entrepreneurs and businessmen to be "exploitative/rotten bourgeoisie", at best, "thieves". There is even an aphorism that some attribute to Karl Marx: "Every great fortune hides a crime."
The United States adheres to a completely opposite ideology — liberalism. It is based on the principles of multiparty system, freedom of opinion, capitalism and freedom of the market.
The conflict between the two ideologies existed throughout the Cold War. To one degree or another, the Soviet ideology aroused the interest of some countries and peoples who had just emerged from the oppression of colonialism and felt resentment against the colonizing states. The Soviet Union financed many leftist and Marxist parties and helped some of them come to power. He provided support to countries that adopted this ideology or were interested in it, as well as to States and leaders who took a hostile position towards the United States. Like Fidel Castro, for example.
Many European leftist parties sympathized with Soviet ideology, which alarmed the United States. They used intelligence and organized coups to prevent communists or socialists from coming to power in several countries. The overthrow of Mohammad Mosaddegh in Iran is the most famous coup organized by Americans outside of Europe and Latin America. The United States took control of media and cultural institutions in several countries immediately after World War II to counter Soviet ideology.
America also used religion against the USSR. She adopted, for example, political Islam and used it to her advantage, as well as Christian clergy, especially in Latin America. After the collapse of the USSR, the world was exposed to many incidents related to the interference of both Russians and Americans in many political and cultural events around the world.
Currently, neither Russia nor Putin has an internationalist ideology that could be propagated or adopted. The Russian leader adheres to the principles of Russian nationalism. But it faces difficulties in building relations with other countries governed by its own interests and capital. He is not Khrushchev or Brezhnev, he is a mixture of Russian tsars and bonapartism.
China also does not have an ideology that it could offer or impose on its allies. He says goodbye to the era of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. Since the 80s, Beijing has adhered to capitalist mechanisms. At the same time, the Chinese Communist Party insists that its experience remains Chinese, it does not want to impose it on anyone or propagandize it.
The resumption of the Cold War is an illusion that can become a nightmare.
Author: Helmi an-Namnam (المي النمنم)
