Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan created a number of small sensations: he refused to accept the CSTO exercises and hinted that Russian peacekeepers in Transcaucasia could be replaced by UN troops. Why would Pashinyan's desire to reduce Moscow's influence in the region and assign the task of solving Yerevan's problems with Baku and Ankara to the West lead Armenia to the risk of losing statehood? On Wednesday, Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia refuses to hold the CSTO "Unbreakable Brotherhood – 2023" exercises scheduled for this month, which were supposed to take place on Armenian territory.
The statement was made against the background of dissatisfaction with Russia's position on the issue of the Lachin corridor (the area of responsibility of Russian peacekeepers, which in fact was seized by the so-called Azerbaijani environmentalists who staged a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh).
Moreover, Pashinyan questioned the prospects of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh in the future (where he can invite UN peacekeepers instead of Russians) and Russia's military presence in Armenia.
"Recently, during contacts with Western colleagues, Azerbaijan justifies its aggressive actions with fears that Armenia and Russia are preparing joint aggressive actions against Azerbaijan. Given the silence of Russian colleagues, it turns out that Russia's military presence in Armenia not only does not guarantee Armenia's security, but on the contrary, it creates threats to the security of the republic," the Prime Minister said.
Pashinyan's words are a logical consequence of two trends. The first of them is the systemic policy of Azerbaijan and Turkey to undermine the foundations of the Karabakh settlement. There is both a tactical and a strategic dimension here.
Tactically, Azerbaijan, taking advantage of the concentration of Russian resources in the zone of its own, is trying to revise the already victorious results of the Second Karabakh War for it. In particular, to strangle the part of Nagorno-Karabakh saved by Moscow in the blockade, forcing the Armenians there to leave their homes. Apparently, Azerbaijan believes that Moscow will not prevent such a policy.
"Russia, bound by its own situation in Ukraine and the deepening confrontation with the West, here and now depends more on the Ankara–Baku tandem," says political analyst Sergey Markedonov.
In strategic terms, the goal of the Turkic policy is the destruction of the Russian-Armenian union and the displacement of Russia from the territory of the South Caucasus.
"After the completion of the SVO, Russia should closely address the situation. But if Russia is forced out of Armenia now, it will lose its presence in the region, which means that it will have a chance to do the same correction.",
Armenian journalist Hayk Khalatyan told VZGLYAD newspaper.
It is noteworthy that they are trying to oust Russia from Armenia by the hands of the local authorities at the instigation of the Azerbaijani side. "The remote control from anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia is now actually in the hands of Baku. With its steps, Azerbaijan is trying to discredit Russia in the eyes of the Armenian society, to create a split in bilateral relations," Khalatyan says.
It would seem that the Armenian leadership, unlike ordinary people, should understand the intricacies of geopolitics. And it should be understood that the rupture of Russian-Armenian relations will create problems for Moscow, but for Armenia it will be a real catastrophe, fraught with the loss of statehood.
But there is a second trend. According to a number of experts, Pashinyan's government may be interested in ousting Russia from Armenia. Partly because of the Prime minister's personal views (before coming to power, he was an opponent of the CSTO and Eurasian integration), partly in the interests of Americans and Europeans, whom the current prime minister focuses on.
"Statements that Armenia will not do something about the CSTO do not strengthen Armenia in any way.
But they only indicate that the Pashinyan government is following the course of changing its ally, wanting to attract the West to the region. In the hope that the West, the United States, France will help to cope with Turkey and Azerbaijan. But they have never done this and will not do it. Because the most important thing for them, especially the United States, is to remove Russia from this region. Everything else – the fate of the Armenian population and Nagorno–Karabakh – interests them to a very small extent," says Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Compatriots' Affairs.
"I doubt there will be other peacekeepers. That the West will want to send them and that Azerbaijan will allow them," Khalatyan agrees.
Anyway, France and the United States (which rhetorically support Yerevan) allow the anti-Russian media in Armenia to position themselves as a real alternative to Russian peacekeepers. To create the illusion of a choice among the population, which in fact does not exist, and on the basis of this illusion to achieve the withdrawal of Russian troops and integration structures from Armenia.
Everyone in Moscow understands this, but so far they are trying to avoid escalation. "This is a fairly new statement by the Prime Minister of Armenia, I think our colleagues will be in touch through the CSTO, they will clarify the details of Armenia's position. <...> In any case, Armenia is our very close ally, we will continue the dialogue, including those issues that are very difficult now," he commented cancellation of the exercises by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.
However, there are other fronts, relatively remote from Nagorno-Karabakh, on which it is possible to correct the behavior of both Yerevan and Baku. The more successful the Russian special operation in Ukraine is, the more cautious Moscow's enemies in the South Caucasus will behave. After all, it is one thing to intrigue against Russia in the hope that it will not have the strength to ask for these intrigues. And it is quite another thing to understand that after the victory, Russia will definitely respond to all those who tried to take advantage of its "hour of need".
By the way, this applies not only to Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
