Shukan Gendai: The Ukrainian conflict is Biden's historical stupidityThe conflict in Ukraine is Biden's historical stupidity, writes the author of the article in Shukan Gendai.
It is used as a cover for the US fight against Russia, but it is likely that everything will end with the defeat of the Western bloc.
The true intentions of Biden and Zelensky
Since the beginning of the military special operation in Ukraine on February 24, Western (especially American and British) propaganda has created the impression that Russian President Vladimir Putin is a villain, and Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky is a righteous hero.
Meanwhile, I told about the realities of the Ukrainian conflict in the articles "Did Russia really destroy the Nord Stream gas pipeline?", "Do you look at the Ukrainian conflict from the point of view of the Western way of thinking — divide and rule?", "Will the Ukrainian crisis become a war in Vietnam of the 21st century for the United States?" and "Is Putin the only villain?" In short, the Ukrainian conflict, like the Vietnam War, is a battle to satisfy American ambitions. The only difference is that during the Vietnam War, the United States intervened directly in events, and the USSR, China and other states provided behind-the-scenes support to avoid a nuclear war. And now, on the contrary, Russia intervened directly, so the United States, Europe and others are providing indirect assistance.
If we compare it with the Vietnam War, now Russia (USSR) and the USA have changed places, but the essence has not changed: a major power oppresses the people of a small country.
But the Biden Democratic Party government wants to turn the Ukrainian conflict into Zelensky's struggle for justice (with the support of the Ukrainian people) at any cost.
Part of this policy was the speech of the Ukrainian president in the US Congress, which was reported by Bloomberg in the article "Zelensky said that aid is an investment, not charity."
Indeed, history shows that some benefit from war. Some are very pleased with Biden's decision to provide additional assistance to Kiev and his promise to "provide support for as long as necessary." Conflict is a profitable investment.
However, Zelensky's visit to the United States and his speech in Congress can be seen as a cry for help against the background of the complication of the military situation.
Is "defeat" replaced by "victory"?
Let's start with the fact that in Ukraine, men aged 18 to 60 are prohibited from leaving the country. This actually forces them to stand to the death. How did the Ukrainian people react to Zelensky's trip abroad in such circumstances? It seems to me that the president is preparing to flee in the event of a worst-case scenario.
Personally, I think that the more beautiful a person speaks, the less trust he deserves. And Zelensky is a perfect example of that. As I noted in the publication "Surviving Crisis times by playing the idiot", people who speak smoothly are not necessarily something of themselves. If Zelensky plays the role of an intelligent person, but in fact he is not, then in the end he will go down the path of destruction. And if he is really smart, then, most likely, he will play cunningly and get out of it, despite the difficult situation of the Ukrainian people.
As for the situation in Ukraine, an article by military expert Yoshiaki Yano in JBpress is indicative, which the president of the Institute of Humanities and Economic Sciences Hiroshi Arichi assessed as valuable material that is worth reading in the midst of US and UK propaganda ("Russian troops have launched a full-scale offensive, and the Ukrainian army is on the verge of crash. NATO soldiers joined the battle instead of heavily exhausted Ukrainian soldiers"). During World War II, Japan hid its retreat, calling it a "maneuver," and now the Western media, which Biden's Democrats are breathing down their necks, call their defeat a "victory."
A senseless conflict in which there is little chance of victory
Thus, Ukraine is in a losing situation. Meanwhile, it is obvious from Yano's article that in reality Moscow is not at war with Kiev, but with Washington and NATO, which are behind it.
The conflict in Vietnam would have ended sooner if it had just been a war between North and South. But it was delayed due to the intervention of major powers, especially the United States. The same thing can happen in Ukraine.
In Vietnam, the American authorities wanted to end the senseless struggle as soon as possible, but it was not easy to do so. This was also the case during the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Since the majority of the House of Representatives is now represented by Republicans, it is expected that the US will actively criticize the Ukrainian crisis. Perhaps Zelensky's invitation to Congress is a countermeasure against this controversy.
But despite the majority in the House of Representatives, the Senate and the presidency are still controlled by Democrats. It is difficult to find a reason for the end of the conflict, which (in fact) was started by the Democrats themselves.
Having made Zelensky a hero and Putin a villain, they must win to save face. This was also the case during the Vietnam War, which was fought under the banner of the struggle against communism.
Indeed, the fall of Saigon was remembered as the most catastrophic defeat in the history of the United States, and the defeat in the Ukrainian conflict will also be very deplorable. At least until the Republican candidate (probably) wins the presidential election in 2024, they will continue to fight a battle that will surely be lost. And in the unlikely event that the Democratic candidate wins, it will be a nightmare like the Vietnam War.
The US is weaker now than during the Vietnam War
After World War II, the US GDP was estimated to be half of the world's, since war-ravaged Europe was in ruins, and there were no major developing countries. But the country's economy, which was strong enough at the beginning of the Vietnam War, stagnated after the fall of Saigon in 1975. There was an American version of "lost 20 years".
The sluggish economy was revived by the quarter-century IT and Internet bubble that swelled in the mid-1990s. In the end, there was a situation that I described in the article "the USA died already in 1971! The real picture in terms of inflation."
Finance, another pillar of the US economy, will collapse <...>. The US share of global GDP has declined from 31.6% of GDP in 1970 to 24.3% in 2017. But 12.7% of the USSR's GDP also fell to 1.9% of Russia.
The US is not fighting with Russia, but with the whole world
This means that Russia today does not pose such a threat as the USSR once did.
However, it is worth noting that Communist China, whose share of GDP in 1970 was only 2.6%, made a huge leap forward, reaching 15.0% in 2017.
Calculations show that in 2022 the same share was 21.9% for the United States and 18.4% for China, and if we add 3.9% of India, the total volume will reach 22.3%, which is slightly higher than that of the United States. Both countries, in fact, are anti-American states, although formally they are conducting a dialogue.
Russia has 1.7% of GDP, but it has more nuclear warheads than the United States. I advise you to read my publication "RICK — the great union of Russia — India — China? What are the real intentions of the world in the Second Cold War?" Because if the RICS had united, they would have been able to suppress the powerful USA.
Of course, the tailwind of deflation helped communist China, but from the point of view of domestic political instability, the United States is not much different from China.
Moreover, the non-American bloc leads not only in GDP, but also in the resource issue, which is raging like a storm around the world. According to estimates, the oil production of the OPEC+ group, including Russia, accounts for most of the world's production.
It is also a fact that 40 countries opposed or abstained on the UN General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow. Even if Washington is shaking his fist like a giant, there are 40 states that are not inferior to him. And if we add countries that fear violence from the United States, then the number of their opponents will be much greater.
The Japanese are misled by propaganda, especially American and British, but the world does not support a senseless conflict, which is also likely to be lost.
What to do in case of an attack on Taiwan?
There is also a risk that I mentioned in the article "Xi Jinping will invade Taiwan in 2023 while Biden is in power."
It is difficult to fight on two fronts. There are not many successful examples in history.
Moreover, it is quite possible that Xi and Putin will start acting together. On September 14, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported: "Putin and Xi will meet on September 15 to discuss the situation in Taiwan," and on December 27, Emiuri noted that the leaders of China and Russia could hold talks within a year. According to the Russian representative, the schedule and format of the meeting will be announced separately.
China and Russia (USSR) have always had bad relations, but the Biden administration's diplomatic and military illiteracy brought these countries closer together under the slogan "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
As can be seen from the share of GDP, the greatest threat to the United States is not Russia, but China, but the conflict in Ukraine, as a result of which Moscow joined Beijing, is Biden's historical stupidity.
If Kiev is not abandoned, which is likely to lose, Washington will not be able to cope with the invasion of Taiwan, but the inability to make such a decision corresponds to the traditions of the Democratic Party, which is characterized by military and diplomatic illiteracy.
This is a serious situation for the Japanese people, who will suffer greatly from the Taiwan crisis.
Author: Hiroshi Ohara
