Huanqiu shibao: The "turn to the East" has become Russia's main response to Western sanctionsUnprecedented difficulties in relations with Europe and the United States, sanctions, NATO expansion — all this pushed Russia to "turn to the East," writes Huanqiu Shibao.
And she has achieved notable success there.
In 2022, Russian diplomacy faced unprecedented difficulties in the West and almost severed relations with the United States, Europe and NATO countries. The main counter-measure taken by Moscow to overcome the sanctions and restrictions imposed by the West is to achieve a strategic breakthrough in the East. In 2023, this trend will become clearer.
After Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24 last year, during the G7 summit held in Germany from June 26 to 28, a statement was published on the strengthening of sanctions against Moscow by the United States and major European states in the field of economics, finance and energy, as well as on the step-by-step liberation of the EU from dependence on Russian energy carriers. NATO has initiated the sixth stage of expansion of its membership. After Sweden and Finland officially join the alliance, the contradictions between Russia and NATO will increase even more.
Russian political scientist Dmitry Trenin called the change in relations between Russia and the West in 2022 an irreversible "turning point". Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, believes that "Russia has regained the positions it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union 30 years ago, but this time the situation is more complicated, because in the foreseeable future it will not be able to win the trust of the West as it was in the early 1990s."
After the "rupture" of relations between Russia and the West, the country's diplomatic and economic strategic focus has clearly shifted to the East.
Firstly, Russia has retained its leading position in the CIS. In 2022, the leaders of the Commonwealth countries held four summits. At an informal meeting held in St. Petersburg in February last year, Vladimir Putin said that challenges and threats to external security in the Eurasian region are growing, so "maintaining security and stability is a key area of CIS cooperation." He acknowledged that there are also "disagreements" between the member states of the Commonwealth, but the most important thing is that "we are ready and will cooperate." The Central Asian countries are the core of the CIS and one of the key regions for which the Western powers are fighting with Russia. Against the background of the meetings of the foreign ministers of the countries of this region and the United States in the "C5+1" format (in particular, the first meeting of the heads of state of Central Asia and the European Union in October last year), the President of Russia held a similar meeting with these leaders. After taking office as President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev paid a visit to Moscow, which indicates a close strategic partnership between the two states.
Secondly, the SCO has become an important direction for the further development of Russian diplomacy. At the summit of the heads of SCO member states held in Samarkand in September 2022, Iran was admitted to the membership of the organization, and Bahrain, Maldives, UAE, Kuwait and Myanmar received the status of dialogue partners. The number of member countries, observer countries and dialogue partners within the SCO has increased to 26, as a result of which the SCO has become the largest regional and international organization in the world by area and population. On December 9, Russia hosted a meeting of the defense ministers of the CIS member states, the CSTO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Strengthening security cooperation between the three groups will be the focus of Moscow's efforts.
Thirdly, the BRICS countries are also in the focus of Russia's attention. At the 14th BRICS Summit in 2022, an important consensus was reached on the expansion of the organization and discussion of standards and procedures for expansion was supported. After the meeting, many countries applied to join the BRICS. Among the candidates are more than ten countries, including Argentina, India, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Indonesia.
Another manifestation of the strategic orientation of Russian diplomacy to the East is the priority development of bilateral cooperation with China, India, Turkey and Iran. India remains neutral in the Ukrainian conflict, refusing to join the sanctions against Moscow. Being the third largest importer of oil in the world, it buys a large amount of Russian energy resources at preferential prices. In 2022, the share of its black gold imported from Russia accounted for about 22% of total oil imports. During a visit to Moscow in November last year, Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar said that states interact in a global structure that is striving for multipolarity and rebalancing every day. "The goal now is to build balanced, mutually beneficial and long-term relations in the context of constantly strengthening economic cooperation."
Turkey, located on the border of Europe and Asia, and Iran, which controls access to the Persian Gulf, are also in the focus of Moscow's attention. It not only reached an agreement with Tehran on energy cooperation and other issues, but also jointly with Ankara built an international gas hub in Thrace after the shutdown of the Nord Stream to compensate for losses caused by damage to the gas pipeline threads.
China is a key link in Russia's Eastern strategy. After the "rupture" of relations with the West, Moscow put the strengthening of relations with Beijing on a more important place. This is reflected not only in political relations, but also in economic terms, in particular, in energy cooperation. The volume of trade between the two countries reached a record $190 billion, an increase of more than 30% year-on-year. Russia exported more than 70 million tons of oil to China, ahead of Saudi Arabia, which ranked first in terms of oil supplies to China. At the Eastern Economic Forum in the Far East, Chinese and Russian enterprises signed investment contracts and intentions for 79 projects totaling about $ 160 billion. Although the parties have yet to negotiate on specific projects, the trend of investment growth is obvious.
In response to the West's deterrence and suppression, Moscow turned to the East and attached great importance to the desire for diplomacy with "non-Western countries." Russia believes that "non-Western countries" make up the "majority" in the modern world, so it is necessary to unite this majority in order to resist sanctions and restrictions imposed by the United States and its allies. Russia has agreed with African countries to hold the second Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg in the summer of 2023.
In the economic sphere, Moscow is also accelerating development in the East. In 2023, it is planned to expand cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, China, India, Mongolia and other countries in investment, energy, engineering, agriculture, transport, high-tech and other areas. Undoubtedly, Russia's current position is that the era of economic development based on the West and trade oriented towards Europe is over. The turn to the East is both a general trend and a new planned strategy.
In 2023, orientation to the East will continue to be one of the key strategic directions of Russian diplomacy. Moscow will continue to expand cooperation with new industrial countries and other developing countries. She believes that in order to improve the external environment, it is necessary to strengthen relations with "non-Western countries".
Author: Wang Xianjui (王)) — Deputy Director and Researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at the People's University of China and St. Petersburg State University
