Diary: elections in the USA, Russia and Ukraine in 2023 will affect the outcome of the conflict Elections around the world will determine the outcome of the military conflict in Ukraine, writes the "Diary".
The votes in Russia, the USA, Ukraine and Taiwan are crucial for the course of the confrontation in 2023 and may turn out to be no less important than the events on the battlefield.
Ivan KrastevIt is generally believed that wars end at the negotiating table.
However, they often run out or freeze at the ballot box. America's war in Vietnam ended there, France's war in Algeria ended there, and only Slobodan Milosevic's defeat in the 2000 elections actually stopped the war in the former Yugoslavia.
Several key elections, which will take place in 2024, are connected with the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The votes in Russia, Ukraine, Taiwan and the United States are crucial for the course of the conflict in 2023. The outcome of these elections may determine what the future international order will look like.
In March 2024, presidential elections will be held in Russia and Ukraine. It takes a rich imagination to imagine that Vladimir Putin will lose this election, planned for the sole purpose – that he will win. However, given the failure of the special operation, he has reasons to worry: in the event of a military defeat or freezing of the conflict in a way that is not beneficial to him, Putin will face opposition not only from the few liberals left in the country, but also from mobilized and self-confident right-wing nationalists.
And although this has not happened in more than two decades of his tenure in power, the election campaign, combined with a failure at the front, can provoke an anti-Putin impulse that Europeans and Americans have long expected, although it is unlikely that this impulse will lead to freedom in Russia.
The upcoming elections in Ukraine will also have an impact on the strategic decisions of President Vladimir Zelensky in 2023. If he wants to win the elections, he cannot make any territorial compromise. Postponing the election is not an option.
Holding elections in wartime, when the majority of the population is outside the country or has been forcibly relocated, will be a huge logistical challenge for Zelensky. Organizing free and fair elections will be of paramount importance to strengthen Ukraine's image as a democratic David fighting the autocratic Russian Goliath.
In the pre-election cocktail of 2024, the presidential elections in Taiwan may also turn out to be an unpredictable factor that can change the dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Fear of a nationalist victory may affect Beijing's "unification" strategy. It is not yet known what lesson Xi Jinping has learned from his own. What conclusion did he draw: was Putin's mistake that he started his own, or that he started it too late?
The desire to keep Americans at a distance may lead to the fact that the Chinese government, humiliated enough by its inability to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, will strengthen Moscow's support in the hope of keeping the US attention trapped in the European conflict.
The US presidential elections and, to a lesser extent, the elections to the European Parliament will also have a direct impact on the development of the conflict. The US presidential election may have more significance for the outcome of the conflict than any actions on the battlefield. Ukrainians would not be able to resist Putin if the Americans and Europeans significantly reduced their military and financial support.
Thus, Ukrainians have reason to fear that the Democrats may lose the presidential election, and if certain Republican circles win, American support for their military actions may weaken. For both the Democrats and their European allies, Putin's success in the Donbas or NATO's direct intervention would have a dramatic impact — both on the election of the next American president and on the elections to the next European Parliament.
Russia's possible success at the front or NATO's more serious intervention in the conflict may tip the balance of the upcoming US elections in favor of the Republicans. The last thing Democrats and their European allies need is for voters to accuse the White House of unleashing World War III. In order for Joe Biden and his European allies to win the election, it is extremely important that Ukrainians continue to win on the battlefield.
We know how economic interdependence and the proliferation of nuclear weapons have changed the nature of modern warfare. However, we still do not see how the upcoming elections can change the course of hostilities in Ukraine, especially in the context of global hyperpolarization.
And what is the result? In the XXI century, it is not always enough to have superiority on the battlefield to win a war. It is also necessary to win the elections, and not only in your own country.
