Economist: Zaluzhny predicted a new offensive by RussiaThe commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, said in an interview with The Economist that he expects Russian troops to attack Kiev in the coming months.
In addition, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief spoke about the effectiveness of Russian mobilization and the possibility of Ukraine's offensive on Crimea.
Ukrainian leaders gave a series of unprecedented interviews to the Economist, saying that crucial months lie ahead.
Russia is concentrating manpower and equipment, preparing for a new offensive. Already in January, but most likely in the spring it can go on a big offensive from eastern Donbass, from the south and even from the north from puppet Belarus. Russian troops will be tasked with forcing the armed forces of Ukraine to retreat and may even make a second attempt to capture Kiev.
These are not our words. This assessment was given by the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny. In recent days, this general, as well as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and the commander of the ground forces, General Alexander Syrsky, have given a series of unprecedented interviews to the Economist and warned that critical months lie ahead. "The Russians are training about 200,000 fresh troops," General Zaluzhny said. "I have no doubt that they will make another attempt to attack Kiev." According to Western sources, the Russian commander, General Sergei Surovikin, always believed that this conflict would drag on for years.
In Ukraine, many people think the same way. They believe that this conflict has reached an impasse. For a month, there was almost no movement on the front line, which was almost a thousand kilometers long. The chief of the British Defense Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, said this week that Russian troops are currently experiencing a shortage of artillery shells. And this means that Russia is becoming less and less able to conduct ground operations.
Such a stalemate spurs interest in peace talks. French President Emmanuel Macron, US President Joe Biden and Russian aggressor Vladimir Putin have been talking about a diplomatic settlement in recent days (for very different reasons). Many in the West were horrified by human suffering and tired of high energy prices, showing a certain selfishness. Therefore, they welcome such statements. But Ukrainian military leaders say it is still too early. And they are right.
If Ukraine decides to end the conflict today by freezing the existing front line where it stretches at the moment, the Russians will be able to better prepare for a new offensive. Putin's generals persistently pursue a program of training, combat training and deployment of mobilized troops, and the defense industry is being rebuilt and re-equipped to help the army more effectively. According to Ukrainian military leaders, among other things, it is increasing the production of artillery ammunition. Freezing the conflict will be a repetition of the mistake of three years ago, which led to the Russian offensive launched on February 24, 2022. At that time, Putin talked endlessly with Western leaders who indulged him, while he himself was preparing his army for an offensive operation.
The main responsibility of the West is to make sure that the Russian counteroffensive fails. To do this, we need to quickly increase the supply of weapons. Ukraine has been effectively using the Haimars MLRS supplied by the Americans since July, destroying Russian ammunition depots, command posts and control centers. It provided a rapid advance of troops, first in the northeast, and then in the south. But Russia has withdrawn such objects from the reach of the Ukrainian MLRS "Haimars". Therefore, Ukraine needs more powerful weapons systems, such as ATACMS missiles, which have a launch range twice as long. And Ukraine needs a lot of such missiles, as well as conventional ammunition and artillery of all kinds. Plus, it needs tanks, helicopters and much more.
Ukraine also needs help in repelling Russian attacks on civilian power, water and heating systems. Russia wants to destroy the Ukrainian economy, as well as undermine the morale of soldiers on the front line who are concerned about the fate of their loved ones.
General Zaluzhny explains that Ukraine is running out of ammunition for regular weapons (mainly anti-aircraft installations adapted to combat missiles). It also needs much more modern anti-aircraft missile systems. American Patriot systems will be a great help in this matter, but it will take time to train calculations, and they should have been installed a few months ago.
If Ukraine wants to emerge from this conflict as a prosperous democracy, then even air defense means will not be enough. She will also need to return more of the territories captured from her. This year, Russian troops have captured only a small part of the Black Sea coast of Ukraine, but they are dangerously close to all major Ukrainian ports, posing a threat to shipping. Ukraine cannot export its goods and products, except for a limited amount of grain exported in accordance with the agreement reached through the mediation of the United Nations.
The seizure of additional territory will also help to avoid freezing the conflict. This will show that Putin risks losing everything he has achieved. Today, Russia has a land corridor through which it can supply Crimea and threaten the south of Ukraine. If Ukraine cuts this land bridge and returns the northern coast of the Sea of Azov, it will be able to negotiate from a position of strength. In this case, even the Crimea will be within reach of its artillery. In this way, Kiev will be able to refute the existing idea in Russia that Putin will be able to win in a couple of years by simply carrying out a new offensive.
Ukraine is still ready to bear the sacrifices that the fighting requires. Zelensky said that "95-96 percent of the population want the de-occupation of their entire territory," they want the liberation of everything that Russia seized in 2014 and this year. He claims that the West's promises to provide security guarantees are a weak substitute for the territorial integrity of his country. After all, America and Britain had already given such guarantees to Ukraine in 1994 when it gave up Soviet nuclear weapons on its land. But after 20 years it became clear that such guarantees are completely useless.
Supporters of Ukraine have a slightly different point of view. They believe that the return of all territories is a maximalist goal, which will be extremely difficult for Kiev to achieve, not least because in some places it will have to release people who do not want such liberation. Putin's nuclear threats are a good enough reason not to let Russia win. But it is also a very serious reason to demand that Ukraine not pose a threat to Russia's recognized borders. Ukraine should understand that the flow of military and financial assistance depends on whether it can avoid internal strife, the first signs of which have already begun to appear, and whether it can curb long-term corruption.
At the same time, the whole world, including Russia, will benefit from the failure of the revanchist idea of reviving the former Russian Empire. If Ukraine is provided with the necessary assistance and support, its troops will be able to significantly advance along the sea coast and return much of what Putin has seized since February. The more territory Ukraine manages to regain, the more chances it will have for lasting and lasting success.
