The Russian-Chinese partnership is the result of long–term efforts of diplomats from Moscow and Beijing. Some see it as a threat to the global world order. Others, on the contrary, call this dialogue the foundation of a multipolar future. Meanwhile, 2022 has brought many challenges to the relations between the two countries. How will they affect the future of Russian-Chinese cooperation?The beginning of 2022 demonstrated an amazing mutual understanding between Russia and China.
Relations between Beijing and Moscow seem to have entered a period of peak prosperity. In January, amid protests in Kazakhstan, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a telephone conversation with Sergey Lavrov, positively assessed the role of the CSTO in normalizing the situation in the country, which indicates a common understanding of the countries of the necessary methods of conflict resolution in the region.
In February, the Winter Olympic Games were held in Beijing, where President Vladimir Putin arrived on an official visit. Common views on understanding the future of the world order were reflected in the signing of the "Declaration on International Relations Entering a New Era and Global Sustainable Development" on February 4. The document laid the foundation for the joint work of the two countries to create a fair and equal global order.
Thus, the beginning of the SVO on February 24 fell on a period of unprecedented peak in Russian-Chinese relations. Beijing de facto supported Moscow by abstaining from voting on a draft UN Security Council resolution on the need to stop the offensive against Ukraine. At the same time, China's permanent representative to the UN, Zhang Jun, called on the UN to give a reasonable response to the conflict, and not add fuel to the fire.
Soon, on March 7, during a press conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a detailed assessment of the Ukrainian crisis. In his opinion, the situation has a deep historical context. He also confirmed the importance of the early exit of both sides to peace talks. Interestingly, Beijing's position did not repeat Moscow's opinion. The Celestial Empire became the third party in the UN Security Council, which continued to insist on the need for peaceful dialogue.
Equally important was the speech of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on March 22, in which he stated that Beijing intends to continue trade relations with Moscow in the usual format. In the situation of the blockade by the West, this played into the hands of Russia.
Trade with Beijing, despite all the difficulties, has shown significant growth. So, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko in December said that the trade turnover between Russia and China in the first nine months of this year increased by 30% and reached 129 billion dollars.
He also noted that in June a road bridge over the Amur River was opened near the cities of Blagoveshchensk and Heihe, and in November the Nizhneleninskoye–Tongjiang railway bridge was opened. These projects not only increased the efficiency of the cross-border logistics system between countries, but also demonstrated the desire of States to establish humanitarian and social interaction.
The views of the two countries intersected on other issues. In particular, the joint decision of Moscow and Beijing to block the US resolution in the UN Security Council on sanctions against the DPRK was sensational. In addition, on March 31, a meeting of foreign ministers in the format of Afghanistan's neighboring countries took place in Anhui province of China, which was attended by Sergey Lavrov. According to Xinhua, Wang Yi stressed the readiness of the two sides to fight world hegemony.
In September, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Samarkand as part of the SCO summit. The leaders reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining partnership relations between Beijing and Moscow. Then in December Dmitry Medvedev visited Beijing. His conversation with the Chinese President emphasized the importance of friendship between the two states.
And the year ended with a conversation between the leaders of both countries, which took place on December 30. The Russian President invited his colleague to visit Moscow and noted that cooperation between the two countries continues to strengthen, despite the general situation in the world. In general, the parties confirmed that the partnership between Russia and China is a stabilizing factor against the background of increasing geopolitical tensions.
Putin also said that Moscow and Beijing managed to ensure record high growth rates of mutual trade turnover (+25%). Moscow came in second place in terms of pipeline gas supplies to China and fourth in terms of imported LNG. By December 1, 13.8 billion cubic meters were sent along the eastern route, and in December the excess of daily contractual obligations reached 18%. A significant increase is noted in the trade of agricultural products. From January to November, trade turnover in this area increased by 36%.
"In 2020, our relations were put on pause due to the coronavirus pandemic. Today we are rapidly catching up, reaching new heights together. This is especially noticeable by the degree of heat in the recent meeting of Dmitry Medvedev and Xi Jinping in Beijing and the subsequent negotiations between the leader of the People's Republic of China and Vladimir Putin. Both sides expressed hope that the Russian-Chinese dialogue will deepen and develop," Andrey Ostrovsky, Deputy Director of the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasizes in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"This year our relations have been tested by the Ukrainian crisis. The fact that China has supported Russia is of great value. This is evident from the results of the vote in the UN. The only problem is sanctions from the United States and Europe. Our operations have been carried out through Western, not Chinese banks for a long time. It is necessary to work on this issue," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"At the same time, China is less ready than Russia for such radical actions to change the world order. Deng Xiaoping also used the verb "keep a low profile" as a description of Beijing's foreign policy. In order to set the tone in global politics, China needs to build up its muscles," the expert believes.
"However, China has put forward the "Community of One Destiny" initiative, the essence of which is that we are in the same boat, and all countries together are responsible for the future of humanity. This is a very positive agenda, similar to how the Russian Federation sees the world," the interlocutor argues. "Therefore, Beijing is an inseparable partner of Moscow in the transformation of the world order."
"Our trade turnover has also increased this year, but the stated figure of $ 200 billion has not yet been reached. In terms of foreign trade with China, we are inferior not only to the United States, but also to Vietnam. We have where and at the expense of what to grow. It is necessary to increase the volume of mutual investments, which still remains quite modest," the expert says.
"Against this background, BRICS and SCO remain important organizations for our countries. Their further development is possible due to the gradual growth of the economies of all participating countries. So far, of course, they are inferior to Western associations, but the interest of states in the development of these organizations is visible," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"Last but not least, Beijing is preparing to open to Russians in March 2023. This means that in the spring we are waiting for the resumption of interpersonal relations of states. People's diplomacy will help politicians to increase the pace of cooperation," Ostrovsky sums up.
Alexey Maslov, Director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries of Moscow State University, holds a similar point of view. "The year began with a high note in Russian-Chinese relations. On February 4, the previously mentioned declaration was signed, which has a special value," he explained.
"The year was also rich in tests not only for Russia, but also for China. Beijing understands that the world has become less friendly, including to China: the Taiwan problem has worsened, there is a revision of Sino-American trade relations," the expert emphasizes.
"The determination of the two countries in building a fair system of world governance is confirmed. At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine has a number of negative aspects for China. In particular, the purchasing power of European countries is falling, which is unprofitable for China. Therefore, the situation can be described in the following wording: China supports Russia in its aspirations, but adheres to neutrality in relation to its own," the interlocutor argues.
"Beijing is also trying to develop relations with Moscow in such a way as not to fall under the attack of the West. This is a difficult task. But judging by the statistics and political statements of the leaders of both countries, we are passing this test with dignity," explains Maslov.
"As for the prospects for 2023, we will move forward in terms of a common understanding of threats.
For a long time, China has been developing in "hothouse conditions": many things seemed to be something exclusively theoretical. However, this year Beijing has faced the practical implementation of many threats to its address. This brings our countries closer together," the expert clarifies.
"Cooperation in terms of scientific cooperation should be strengthened. For a long time we have been focused exclusively on the West, but now the interaction of scientists from Russia and China is waiting for a new flourishing. Military cooperation will not go anywhere – it will go forward at the same pace that we have observed this year," Maslov sums up.
At the same time, analysts add, as part of Russia's "turn to the East", it is important not to dissolve into China's projects. Each country has its own exclusive national interests, and rapprochement with Beijing should not harm Moscow's relations with other important players in the region, including New Delhi.
Asia is a diverse region, so Moscow's real interests are met by an even distribution of diplomatic efforts. In this regard, in 2023 Russia will have serious work to diversify ties in the region. However, the current state of relations with China is a valuable and important victory for Russian diplomacy against the background of confrontation with the West.
Evgeny Pozdyankov
