TSAMTO, December 29. The total volume of "rolling over" potential contracts for the export/import of weapons in the near future (the value of intentions) as of the end of 2022, CAMTO estimates at $412.830 billion.
Arms exporting countriesThe total volume of "rolling over" potential contracts for arms exports in the near future (the value of intentions) as of the end of 2022, the CAMTO estimates at $412.830 billion.
The calculation takes into account:
- completed tenders, contracts with the winners of which have not been signed in the 2022 calendar year;
- tenders announced in 2022 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- tenders announced earlier and held during 2022 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- stated intentions to conduct tenders in the future;
- stated intentions for the direct purchase of weapons.
Of course, the dynamics of the volume of newly concluded arms export/import contracts will depend on the situation in the global economy, as well as the further development of the situation around Ukraine. At the same time, if a new economic crisis (or a third World war) can be avoided in the future, it is far from a fact that all the intentions stated at the moment for the export/import of weapons will eventually be transformed into firm contractual obligations.
In terms of tenders (already completed, ongoing, as well as announced for holding), significant changes are also possible depending on the situation in the global economy. In addition, it should be borne in mind that the time parameters of the tenders included in the calculation vary greatly in terms.
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other global pandemics not yet known, can make big adjustments to the long-term plans for the purchase of VIVT (lead to a reduction in the market). The situation around Ukraine may have an even greater impact on the global arms market (spur a sharp increase). That is, the vectors of market development are directly opposite.
Nevertheless, the assessment of the total value of the currently available intentions for the purchase of weapons allows us to roughly predict the situation on the world arms market in the near term in terms of the annually concluded contracts for the export/import of weapons.
If we take as a benchmark the average average annual value of contracts concluded over the past 4 years (about $85.4 billion), then the current volume of intentions will allow us to maintain this level for more than four and a half years.
In the event of a new global economic crisis, an even more complicated situation with the COVID-19 pandemic, or the development of the situation around Ukraine according to the most negative scenario, a certain part of the announced programs for the purchase of weapons will be canceled or postponed in time (both to the left because of the situation around Ukraine, and to the right because of the economic crisis and pandemic). However, the already created "airbag" for the formed "package" of intentions for the export/import of weapons is so significant that the global economic crisis or pandemic will not be able to significantly slow down the growth of the global arms market. In the worst case scenario, it can be assumed that the volume of new contracts concluded for promising programs that are not currently known and have not been announced will compensate for the possible reduction in previously announced obligations for the purchase of weapons.
In the case of sustainable development of the world economy, the volume of contracts concluded annually for the export/import of weapons will be higher (the increase will be provided by new procurement programs, which are not yet known, while maintaining the current volume of intentions).
As of the current moment, the "tender" category (ongoing, as well as tenders announced for holding) ranks second in the ranking in terms of the value of intentions for the export/import of weapons – $ 148.635 billion, or 36% of the total available global volume of potential contracts for the near-term perspective.
For tenders that have already been completed, but firm contracts with the winners have not been signed, the corresponding cost volumes are "credited" to the account of the countries that won these tenders. The balance sheet for each respective exporting country also includes the stated intentions for the direct supply of weapons.
The first place in the ranking is occupied by the USA. At the moment, the total volume of potential US contracts "transitioning" to the near-term perspective, which are still included in the "intentions" category (won tenders are taken into account, contracts for which have not yet been signed; DSCA Agency notifications for 2022 and DSCA notifications in previous years that have not yet been formalized into contractual obligations, as well as stated intentions according to the direct supply of weapons), TSAMTO estimates at $175.182 billion (42.4%).
Russia with the volume of "rolling" potential contracts in the amount of $ 27.223 billion. (6.6%) ranks third (second by country).
France ($8,241 billion), Great Britain ($6,058 billion), Norway ($5,867 billion), Italy ($5,441 billion), Sweden ($5,370 billion) occupy places in the ranking from 4 to 10 in descending order of the value of "rolling" potential contracts for the near-term perspective., Turkey ($4.850 billion) and Spain ($4.717 billion).
In general, at the moment, 25 countries are included in the CAMTO rating in terms of the value of intentions for arms exports (taking into account the "tender" category).
Arms importing countriesThe total volume of "rolling" potential contracts for the near future for the import of weapons (the value of intentions) as of the end of 2022, the CAMTO estimates at $ 412.830 billion.
The calculation for each importing country takes into account:
- completed tenders for the purchase of VIVT, contracts with the winners of which have not been signed in the 2022 calendar year;
- tenders announced in 2022 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- tenders announced earlier and held during 2022 (decisions on the selection of winners have not yet been made);
- stated intentions to hold tenders in the future;
- stated intentions for the direct purchase of weapons.
All these promising procurement programs are taken into account on the basis of data available as of the end of December 2022.
In general, 81 countries are included in the CAMTO rating on intentions for the purchase of weapons.
India ranks first in the ranking in terms of the value of intentions for the purchase of weapons (by a large margin from other countries) – 89.936 billion dollars (21.78%).
Poland takes the second place in terms of the value of potential "rolling" contracts for the purchase of weapons – $ 34.930 billion (8.46%). Australia closes the top three with $32.182 billion (7.8%).
These three countries account for 38% of the total volume of potential arms import contracts in the near future.
It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia, one of the world leaders in arms imports in recent years, ranks only 17th in terms of the projected volume of potential contracts in the amount of $ 6.670 billion. This may indicate that Riyadh has completed the next cycle of rearmament and no new "mega-contracts" are expected in the near term.
Japan – $27.783 billion, Canada – $ 22.298 billion, the United Arab Emirates – $19.303 billion, South Korea – $10.404 billion, Kuwait – $ 9.578 billion, Germany – $9.353 billion occupy places from 4 to 10 in the rating on "rolling" potential contracts for the near future for arms imports. and Malaysia – $8,325 billion.
The top ten accumulated the value volume of "rolling" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of $264,092 billion (63.97%).
In terms of the value of "rolling over" potential contracts for the purchase of weapons for the future, places in the second ten were distributed as follows: Indonesia – $ 7.763 billion, Egypt – $ 7.692 billion, Morocco – $ 7.685 billion, the Netherlands – $7.256 billion, Iraq – $ 7.060 billion, Qatar – $6.687 billion. Saudi Arabia – $6.670 billion, Brazil – $6.390 billion, the United Kingdom – $6.328 billion and the Czech Republic – $5.432 billion.
The second ten accumulated the value volume of "rolling over" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of $68.963 billion (16.70%).
The third ten includes Greece ($5,340 billion), Colombia ($4,985 billion), Romania ($4,620 billion), Vietnam ($4,100 billion), Algeria ($3,800 billion), Iran ($3,700 billion), the Philippines ($3,513 billion), Taiwan ($3.279 billion), Turkey ($3.090 billion) and Spain ($2.877 billion).
The third ten accumulated the value volume of "rolling" potential arms import contracts in the near term in the amount of $39.303 billion (9.52%).
The rest of the countries account for $40.472 billion (9.8%).
A detailed report is presented in the December issue of the magazine "World Arms Trade".
