Serbian sociologist: Serbs would regard the imposition of sanctions against Russia as pressure from the WestThe Ukrainian conflict has intensified the negative attitude of Serbs towards NATO, says sociologist Maya Belosh in an interview with Danas.
In Serbia, the North Atlantic Alliance is considered the main enemy, and the introduction of sanctions against Russia would be regarded by society as submission to Western pressure, the expert believes.
Lydia LazarevichMaya Belos, Chief Sociologist at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, on NATO, Serbia and Russia and the armed conflict in Ukraine
According to the results of surveys by the Belgrade Center for Security Policy on the sympathy of Serbs for Russia, 76% of 1,020 respondents oppose any cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance.
The armed conflict has only worsened the negative attitude towards NATO in this sense. We talked about the survey results, Serbia's friends and foes, and geopolitical trends in the Balkans with Maya Belos, chief sociologist at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.
Danas: The results of your survey showed that the North Atlantic Alliance in Serbia is considered the main foreign policy enemy. As you said earlier, this picture has not changed since the 90s. Is there a way to change this in some way?Maya Belosh: The negative attitude towards NATO in Serbia is not surprising, since the North Atlantic Alliance is most often associated with bombing.
I think the attitude towards NATO has deteriorated dramatically. We still don't know all the facts about the consequences of the bombing, and that's why information is easy to manipulate. The current political leadership has revived the cult of the memory of the victims and the emotions associated with it. On the other hand, the presentation of cooperation between Serbia and the North Atlantic Alliance has changed. In a short time. Only once did the state try to inform citizens about cooperation with NATO with a small message. Over the past few years, cooperation has been very intensive. In addition to cooperation within the framework of the Partnership for Peace program, which is the highest level of cooperation for non-members of the North Atlantic Alliance, many exercises have taken place, and the transition to NATO standards continues. The political leadership, however, acted irresponsibly and did not familiarize citizens with the facts. People were not ready for Serbia to become a member of the North Atlantic Alliance before, but they were ready to support some forms of cooperation.
— What has changed since you conducted the previous survey two years ago?— Now we have a picture that is strikingly different from 2020.
There is a noticeable tendency to abandon any kind of cooperation with NATO. According to the latest data, only 24% of respondents support cooperation in some form, without membership. Just two years ago, there were 61% of them. This decrease is due to the armed conflict in Ukraine and the way the media cover it. Interestingly, this opinion is most common among citizens with high incomes. Moreover, Belgrade and Vojvodina dominate here. Previously, this opinion was held mainly by residents of rural areas. Citizens are not aware of all aspects of cooperation with the North Atlantic Alliance. The idea still prevails that Serbia should adhere to military neutrality, which, first of all, implies non-accession to NATO. This is especially noticeable in connection with the armed conflict in Ukraine. The majority believes that it is not necessary to switch to someone else's side, and if it is necessary, then a third of respondents believe that it is necessary to take the side of the Russian Federation.
— To what extent has the armed conflict in Ukraine affected public opinion about the North Atlantic Alliance?— The armed conflict in Ukraine has only worsened the negative attitude towards the North Atlantic Alliance.
People hear from the media that Ukraine is only an instrument of Western countries, and that in fact there is a conflict between the Russian Federation and the West. Thus, the subjectivity of Ukraine is denied. The picture may change only if the political leadership through the media will truthfully and systematically inform about NATO. The lack of information is explained by the powerful control over the media, which leaves no opportunity to hear a different opinion. There is also a generation gap.
— How would Russia's defeat in the armed conflict in Ukraine change the attitude of Serbian citizens towards this big country, and will it be able, as you said during the presentation of the survey, to "pierce the bubble" in which the inhabitants of Serbia are?— I think the myth of Russia as a great and powerful superpower would be destroyed.
The majority of Serbian citizens, answering the question of which country will dominate in the XXI century, said that it would be Russia. This is no longer related to emotions. This suggests that citizens really have no idea about the events in the world — the world outside Serbia. Another possible consequence is the development of the idea of Russia as a victim of the United States of America. One part of the population would sympathize with Russia, since we consider ourselves victims of the West. It seems to me that we are too focused on ourselves, which puts us very far away from reality.
— How would the imposition of sanctions against the Russian Federation now affect Serbia's image internally and internationally?— We missed the chance to impose sanctions against the Russian Federation in time and decide on values.
There was no condemnation at the highest level, and thus we missed the first chance to stand on the side of certain values. I think the world has noted this. If we imposed sanctions, it would look like a forced political step, and the public in Serbia would regard it as Western pressure on Aleksandar Vucic. However, in Brussels and Washington, they would look at such a step with approval, because that is exactly what is required of us. It is naive to expect material concessions as a reward for our "obedience". Serbia is such a small country that it cannot cause serious material damage to the Russian Federation. So it would be an exceptionally symbolic step that would indicate that Russia has lost its main ally in the Balkans.
Youth and the EU and NATO
— It seems that young people are more inclined to the idea of Serbia joining the European Union and even the North Atlantic Alliance. Does this mean that the future of Serbia's European integration is in the hands of future generations?— Young people really have a more positive view of cooperation with the European Union than the older generation, who no longer expect the state to move forward on the path of integration.
These people decided to integrate themselves into the European Union, find a job there and leave. However, it is necessary to understand the atmosphere in which young people grew up. I am talking about the fact that the topic of Kosovo has constantly appeared in the political discourse. Young people make up the majority of those who recognize Kosovo as the most important foreign policy priority today. A very small percentage of the 7.6% of those surveyed who want Serbia to join NATO are young people. However, this percentage has remained unchanged for many years. There is a stereotype that young people always adopt progressive and liberal ideas, that they are oriented to the West. I rather think we don't understand their orientation at all. It's quite normal when they have different views on life.
