Al Jazeera: the CSTO will side with Russia in UkraineThe escalation of the Ukrainian crisis continues, so Russia and Ukraine are looking for new levers of pressure on each other, writes Al Jazeera.
For Moscow, such a trump card will be a counterweight to NATO — the CSTO, whose members can resort to joint defense in the event of an attack on one of the members of the organization.
Russia's special operation in Ukraine has been going on for ten months in the absence of clear prospects for a political settlement in the short term. In such circumstances, the main interest of the opposing forces — Kiev and its allies, on the one hand, and Moscow, on the other — is to accumulate resources and build up the potential necessary to defeat the enemy.
The recent return of a number of strategic areas, primarily Kherson, to Kiev's control has raised concerns about the levers available in Putin's hands to change the course of the conflict.
Taking into account the measures he has taken in recent months (partial mobilization, admission of foreign citizens to serve in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, threats of the use of nuclear weapons), experts believe that Moscow will spare no means to build up military power in the face of opponents.
Among the available levers, in their opinion, it is possible to highlight the possibility of benefiting from existing military agreements, mutual defense agreements and alliances, in light of concerns about the escalation of the conflict and the direct involvement of NATO. The latter increases the likelihood of the outbreak of World War III, as Moscow itself warns.
According to Fayez al-Asmar, an expert on military and strategic issues, the CSTO is one of the tools available to Russia to mobilize additional military resources in the framework of the conflict with Ukraine.
What is the Collective Security Treaty Organization?
In addition to Russia, the CSTO includes five former Soviet republics (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), but Moscow plays the main role in it. As some authors pointed out even before the special operation in Ukraine, she considered the possibility of improving the organization to oppose NATO.
According to the founding documents, the CSTO is a regional organization whose stated goals are to promote peace, security and stability at the global and regional levels, as well as the collective protection of the independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the member states mainly by political means.
The creation of the association was announced on May 15, 1992, when the Collective Security Treaty was signed in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. The supreme body is the Collective Security Council, which appoints the Secretary General of the organization. The total population of the Member States is about 194 million people (2021), and the peacekeeping contingent, according to data for 2022, has 3,600 people.
The headquarters of the organization is located in the capital of Russia, and it has a permanent Secretariat. At the same time, the Member States shall preside alternately for a period of one year.
The heads of the CSTO member states signed a protocol providing for a mechanism for mutual military-technical assistance in the event of a threat of aggression or actual aggression against their countries.
All options are possible
As al-Asmar noted in an interview with Al Jazeera, any scenarios are possible, which is due to Putin's unwillingness to concede and Zelensky's refusal to sit down at the negotiating table until Russia completely withdraws from Ukrainian territory.
According to the expert, the Kremlin is trying to do everything to stop the advance of NATO to the borders of the state, especially in recent years. To this end, the Russian leadership resorted to demonstrating military power, implementing its own agenda and expanding its military presence in many countries of the world, including Syria, Libya and some regions of Africa.
Such states of the former Soviet Union as Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are a zone of vital interests of Moscow, were united by it in the CSTO, because it fears the loss of influence on their territories and the repetition of Ukraine's scenario of rapprochement with NATO.
According to the expert, the current situation fuels the fears of the international community about the escalation of the conflict, since the parties may act in unexpected ways. Putin can resort to any means to achieve his goals, including collective defense treaties, including within the framework of the CSTO. This situation has been observed for some time in relations with Belarus, where Russian troops are present and joint exercises took place just a few days ago near the northern border of Ukraine.
Challenges to Russia
According to experts, Moscow wants to recreate the Warsaw Pact model through the CSTO and use it to resist NATO. The CSTO strives to achieve a number of goals in the political and military fields.
According to the Charter of the organization, Member States refrain from using force or threats against each other, as well as from joining other military alliances. In addition, an attack on any member of the CSTO is considered an attack on the rest.
The participating countries have been facing a number of problems for many years. Among them is the inability to agree on the militarization of the organization, which Russia is so eager to counter the ambitions of NATO, and rapprochement with Asia.
There is no possibility for military intervention
According to military expert Walid al-Isa, a number of CSTO member states have their own vision and interests, and therefore it will be impossible, for example, to repeat the scenario of the entry of ATS forces into Czechoslovakia in 1968.
Russia, as a leading member of the organization, can use it to interfere in the affairs of loyal states, as happened in Kazakhstan earlier this year: at the suggestion of Moscow, the participants unanimously decided to send peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan for a certain period in order to restore stability after mass popular protests.
The expert added: "The Organization can participate only in limited peacekeeping operations to resolve emergency crises, but does not use military measures in major conflicts, an example of which was the situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Thus, the CSTO did not intervene in the conflict in support of a member state, that is, Yerevan, in connection with which he sharply criticized the alliance, calling its policy towards Baku a failure."
Al-Isa ruled out that Russia would resort to the application of the provisions of the Collective Security Treaty to receive military support in the framework of the Ukrainian conflict. Moreover, the member States of the organization do not have the necessary forces for such a role. Finally, the participation of the CSTO in hostilities would mean the beginning of the Third World War, since Kiev's and NATO's allies will not sit idly by and respond in kind, despite their repeated statements about the lack of intentions to interfere in the conflict.
Author: Aladdin Khedr (اللاء الدين خضر)
