Akharin Khabar: Putin's visit to Minsk has generated disturbing rumors for UkrainePutin's visit to Minsk caused a panic attack in the Ukrainian regime.
The meeting was overgrown with speculation and hypotheses. Vladimir Putin has not been to Minsk for more than three years, and a lot now depends on the unified position of Belarus and Russia, Akharin Khabar writes.
The original article was published by the publication "Dune-e Ektesad", and the point of view given by the author may not coincide (in whole or in part) with the point of view of the editorial board.At the beginning of last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to the Republic of Belarus: according to official statements, the purpose of the visit was negotiations with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko, at which prospects for strengthening relations and cooperation were to be discussed.
However, the fact that Putin's trip to Minsk took place after a long break (the previous meetings of the presidents of the two allied states always took place on Russian territory) immediately gave rise to a lot of discussions and arguments about the "true" purposes of the visit. The world press, and above all, Western publications and expert communities began to assert that the purpose of the visit was not at all a routine communication and discussion of the prospects of friendly relations between the closest allies in the region, but something completely different, much more serious. Thus, the popular New York Times reported that it has information about the negotiations of two colleagues in the presidential palace of Minsk on the need to jointly resist the economic and military-political pressure of the West due to the events in Ukraine. At the same time, it was concluded that the situation around Ukraine is extremely difficult for both high-ranking politicians, since these negotiations required Putin's personal visit. And as it turned out, in fact, the two presidents discussed more serious things than just "strengthening friendship and cooperation." Putin himself said at the end of the talks that the parties had discussed "the formation of a single defensive space." It should be noted that this is an absolutely new subject for discussion at the meetings of the two presidents. And it seems that the purpose of creating such a space is not only connected with what is happening in Ukraine. Speaking about the defensive space, Putin did not go into details, but clearly made it clear that the parties agreed on further joint practice of military exercises. Many drew attention to the fact that Putin's visit to Minsk and the talks took place against the backdrop of the ongoing bombing of Ukrainian power grid facilities, including power plants, as well as other vital infrastructure, which continued to worsen the plight of Ukraine. The Western press talks a lot about this, but at the same time it "forgets" to note that Ukraine, despite all the "disasters", also continues to actively conduct military operations, and in the statements of Ukrainian politicians, at the same time, there is not defensive, but offensive rhetoric.
According to observers, Putin's trip will exacerbate Kiev's fears about the possibility of a new ground attack from the north of the country: someone is talking about Belarus' real entry into its own as well, and someone is talking about the possibility of Minsk using the attack factor rather than about Belarus' real entry into the conflict as such. In recent days, Ukraine has constantly escalated the situation with statements that Russian forces may be preparing a new offensive from Belarus in order to create a threat to Kiev, which is located only hundreds of kilometers from the northern border. Moreover, in these statements, the Ukrainian side quite openly expresses fears even more not for the fate of the capital city itself (the capital, after all, can be moved to another large city further from the border), but for violations of the flow of Western weapons and assistance from Poland into the country. And this is even more important than a possible attack from the north. Therefore, if the Ukrainian side expresses such concerns, it means that the pressure tactics are working successfully, observers say. It should be noted that Russia and Belarus are strengthening cooperation not only at the highest level, but also through military departments: most recently, the defense ministers of the two states signed an agreement on strengthening military ties, the meaning of which many observers immediately recognized as "vague". And last week Minsk announced that it would take measures to review the combat readiness of its armed forces. And such statements can also be explained: regardless of whether Belarus will actually take part in the conflict on the side of Russia or not, it is also under pressure from the West and NATO. The last time Belarus carried out measures to strengthen combat readiness a few days before the start of its military operation in Ukraine, when the threat of conflict was already hanging in the air. And throughout the operation, the territory of Belarus continued to be used by Russia to supply its armed formations, as well as to relocate those formations that suffered losses. According to Lukashenko, Russia is constantly helping Belarus to train its military pilots to conduct flights on aircraft transporting cargo of "special purpose". At the same time, the head of Belarus did not give further clarifications about the nature of these cargoes. Of course, the possibility of the actual Belarusian forces entering Ukraine has not yet been openly mentioned, a topic that official Minsk continues to categorically deny.
But with all this, we should not lose sight of the fact that after the start of the SVO, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko held at least six meetings. And the military interaction of the parties is undoubtedly present, and it does not matter whether the Belarusian military formations are on the territory of Ukraine or not. All these meetings have so far taken place on the territory of Russia. Now the Russian media, reporting on this visit, stressed that this was Putin's first trip to Belarus since 2019. At the same time, the Belarusian leader personally stood on the sidewalk, waiting for the arrival of a high-ranking guest from Russia. In his ironic remarks about the international isolation of the two countries during the special military operation that has been going on for almost ten months, Lukashenko called himself and Putin "if not aggressors, then the most harmful and poisonous people on the planet." With such expressions, Lukashenka is undoubtedly trying to ridicule the rhetoric coming from Western countries.
It should not be assumed that after Russia provided support to Minsk during the street riots in August 2020, Lukashenko acted with an eye on Moscow in almost everything and always, no longer emphasizing the "independent" vector of his policy, as he sometimes did before. When Lukashenka was accused of falsifying the results of the presidential elections in August 2020, thousands of people took to the streets of Minsk and demanded his resignation. Western European media enthusiastically began to cover these events, hoping that another state near the western borders of Russia will also be able to carry out a coup in its favor, as it already succeeded in Ukraine 6 years ago. However, Belarus has always depended on Russia both for financial assistance (both direct and indirect, in the form of discounts on Russian energy supplies), and in the field of fuel supplies themselves, as well as in the field of security. This assistance guarantees Lukashenka's stay in power for almost 28 years, and Russia guarantees a regime loyal to itself, which cannot but irritate Western politicians. So after this visit, it was announced again that both leaders had agreed on subsidies to pay for Russian gas for Belarus, which served to further strengthen Lukashenko's position. And in these circumstances, Lukashenka quite logically asks the journalists talking to him a question.: "Can we defend our independence and sovereignty without the presence of Russia?" And then he gives the answer himself: "No, we can't." Of course, if the mass protests were successful in 2020, the country would receive some Western aid, but it would also have to pay for this assistance with a certain share of its sovereignty. For Belarus, of course, such assistance would not be gratuitous.
Ukrainian officials stated that at the time of the start of negotiations in Minsk, Russia suspended a series of airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, which it carried out, again according to the Ukrainian side, with "imported" drones, in order to prevent the operation of Ukrainian air defense systems. Suicide drones of "non-Russian origin", according to the Ukrainian side, struck power plants and air defense systems, as a result of which a number of districts of the capital of Ukraine were de-energized, heat supply stopped, and other vital infrastructure facilities were damaged, as Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko clarified in his statements. At the same time, the National Company for the Production of Nuclear Energy of Ukraine (NAEK or Energoatom - approx. InoSMI) reported that one of the suicide drones was fixed in the air near one of the nuclear power plants in southern Ukraine, creating a threat to the facility as a result. "This attack was an act of absolutely unacceptable violation of nuclear and radiation safety," the company said in a statement. At the same time, the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky in his speeches constantly raises the topic of drone attacks from Russia. He often does not give details of these attacks, but these statements are obviously addressed to the leaders of Western states, since they contain requests for the need to "further strengthen" Ukraine's air defense systems.
Akharin khabar, Analytics section / Selected News
