PS: how will the West restore Ukraine after the conflictThe author of Project Syndicate reflects on the future of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
He believes that independence from the extraction of natural resources will play an important role. The emergence of a new, more stable international order depends on this.
It is already possible to start thinking about what will follow the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Confidence in the post-conflict future is important for Europe and the whole world.
Nevertheless, despite the general desire to see the first half of this century as different from the first half of the past, the discussion of this issue was very limited. Vladimir Putin's actions are ominously reminiscent of the conflict that devastated Europe after 1914. The First World War – the Great War – set the stage for subsequent catastrophes. Then the aggressor also initially relied on a quick victory, but the conflict acquired global proportions when each side tried to undermine the combat capability and political stability of the other. By November 8, it became clear that Putin had miscalculated, assuming that the United States and the European Union would tire of the conflict and force Ukraine to agree to a humiliating peaceful settlement. The critical moment came when the midterm elections in the United States did not shake the position of President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party. Immediately after that, Russia finally withdrew its troops from Kherson and applied a new strategy aimed at causing as much suffering and destruction to the Ukrainian civilian population as possible.
The Western coalition held up surprisingly well. But the next serious test will come after the end of the military conflict. Caught up in an existential struggle, everyone recognizes that anti-crisis measures are needed and that saving for the sake of compliance with certain budget rules can lead to disaster. But, in the end, the state of emergency ends sometime, and that's when the time for real choice comes. If a return to a rules-based order is associated with economic problems, as happened in 1920, it will fail.
Of course, several high-level international conferences have already been held (in Berlin and Lugano), where the framework for the reconstruction of Ukraine was discussed, and these debates rightly focused on its needs: the amount of funding, the introduction of the necessary anti-corruption controls and the use of self-monitoring to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. But one important element has been largely ignored. Similar to the 1948 Marshall Plan, aimed at both American and European audiences, strengthening democracy and restoring a sense of political purpose are necessary both in Europe and in Ukraine.
Again, the differences between post-World War I and post-World War II settlement provide relevant lessons. The Allies "lost peace" after the First World War because they could not think globally about how to combine the restoration of Belgium and France, where the bulk of the physical destruction took place, with the reintegration of defeated Germany. At first glance, it makes sense to argue that Russia, or at least the extremely wealthy oligarchs from Putin's entourage, should pay most of the costs of rebuilding Ukraine. But this outcome will be impossible as long as Putin remains in power, and if such huge financial sanctions were imposed on post-Putin Russia, we would risk repeating the scenario after the First World War. In 1919, representatives of German democracy faced a difficult choice. They were required to sign a peace treaty imposing financial obligations on them for the conflict unleashed by Kaiser Wilhelm II. As a result, the short-lived Weimar Republic was constantly criticized for having sold out to the West. The best way is the one that was laid out by the Marshall Plan after World War II. Reconstruction of Ukraine will be crowned with success only if it is conceived on a global scale. Instead of offering a solution specifically to the Ukrainian problem, the international community needs to make the restoration of Ukraine part of a much larger effort. After all, post-conflict reconstruction is also needed in Syria, Iraq, Sudan and elsewhere.
It is equally important to bring the defeated powers to the point where they themselves admit that they were on the wrong path earlier. This is exactly what happened in Germany, Italy and Japan after World War II. Once the mechanism of totalitarianism was dismantled, each of them benefited from the heyday of political and economic liberalism in the 1940s and 50s.
One of the major pressing problems of Ukraine is that since the 1990s it has had very slow growth, and it has been lagging more and more behind its closest neighbor Poland. Like Russia and the rest of the post-Soviet states, it has come to rely on the economic model of exporting raw materials, which has reached the maximum level at the moment. That is why Kazakhstan has been looking for a new way of post-carbohydrate development for a long time. Isn't there too much hope that Russia will also try to escape its curse of natural resources, which supported the politics and economics of Putinism? Such a Russia would probably become a source of inspiration for many other countries around the world.
As for Ukraine, its post-war dynamism will obviously depend on the restoration of the country's housing stock, energy supply, hospitals, schools and other infrastructure. But an important role will also be played by whether it will be able to abandon dependence on the extraction of natural resources. Fortunately, many of the strengths that have provided Ukraine with stunning self-defense will also benefit its economic recovery. Since Kiev was already a software development center until February 2022, Ukrainian programmers were well prepared to repel Russian cyber threats. It is these skills and capabilities that will be required when building a modern economy with digital basic services and a significant component of electronics and artificial intelligence.
After the initial shock of COVID-19, many governments adopted the "better than it was" mantra. After the Ukrainian conflict, we must do better than it was all over the world. The emergence of a new, more stable international order depends on this.
