Advance: Putin has decided to take a central role in the events surrounding the conflict in UkrainePutin's decision to visit Minsk proves that he has decided to take a central role in what is happening around the armed conflict in Ukraine, the author of Advance believes.
He used to stay away, but now he's coming forward. His meeting with Lukashenka worries Kiev very much.
D. Marjanovich (D. Marjanovich)Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived today on a visit to Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and with him came Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
In other words, three of Russia's most influential people are now in Minsk. The visit comes at a time when Ukraine, like some of its Western allies, are predicting another Russian attack from Belarus. The same thing that Russian troops have already done at the very beginning of the armed conflict.
It is clear that the proximity of the Belarusian border poses the greatest threat to the capital of Ukraine, Kiev (about 70 kilometers from the Belarusian border), especially since a Russian strike was already aimed at Kiev at the beginning of this year immediately after the start of the Russian invasion. But then the Russian offensive on the capital of Ukraine was repelled, although the Russians will say that they were not defeated, but only committed a "strategic regrouping." Everything suggests that at the end of last February, the Russians miscalculated, hoping to capture Kiev.
In the northern suburbs, they faced strong resistance and failed to break into the city itself. Today the situation is completely different. Kiev is weakened by the constant strikes of Russian missiles and drones. Intense air attacks on the Ukrainian capital (and other cities across the country) are becoming more frequent, and for some time now there has been a fierce struggle between Russian missile forces and Ukrainians with their limited capabilities to repel these attacks and restore the energy networks that are being hit in the first place.
Although the Ukrainian side, interestingly, wants to present the Russian strikes as criminal acts, because of which civilians suffer, this is not so, or rather not quite so. As a result of these intense air attacks, very few civilians actually died, although in a broad sense the number of victims may increase significantly due to the fact that these attacks ultimately "hit" the civilian population, making their lives unbearable due to the lack of electricity, water and heating in the freezing winter.
There is no longer any doubt that this is a Russian tactic. To Kiev's statement that no peace talks are possible, Moscow responded by methodically destroying Ukraine and undermining – at least an attempt to undermine – its will to maintain such an uncooperative position.
From the statements, both public and those coming from anonymous sources in the leadership, it is clear that at this stage of the armed conflict, the Russian Federation is interested in ending it, since it controls a much larger part of Ukraine than at the beginning of this year. But it seems that a plan is being developed in parallel in case Kiev continues to refuse negotiations. In fact, Kiev says that it is ready for them, but these "negotiations", judging by the statements made earlier, are completely unacceptable and unrealistic for Russia, since they presuppose a "complete withdrawal of Russian troops." Moscow definitely does not intend to discuss this, unless it is forced to retreat, as has already happened in some regions, such as Kharkiv and Kherson.
Of course, another option for the Russian Federation is to escalate the armed conflict and try to capture Kiev again. There is a lot of talk about this now, but it is unlikely that such a scenario is possible. In fact, the recent autumn was somewhat very similar to the previous one, only this time we expect not the beginning of an armed conflict, but its escalation.
This brings us to Minsk and confirms the importance of today's meeting between Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
Of course, it should be noted that the position of Lukashenka, who once knew how and could respond to Moscow's demands with his own ideas and steps, is quite weak today. He found himself "in the same boat" with Moscow after Russian troops entered Ukraine through Belarus, and Belarus was also subjected to Western sanctions, although Belarusian troops did not participate in the operation.
Why did Vladimir Putin go to Minsk? Of course, this will not be one of those friendly meetings that end with an ice hockey match: this is a meeting on the eve of something important, and I have already assumed that it could be.
The only question is, how big are the plans? A slight escalation is possible, including potential missile strikes and attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles from the territory of Belarus. An escalation of medium intensity is possible, that is, a scenario in which Russian troops will cross the Belarusian-Ukrainian border again. Finally, there is another option with an escalation of high intensity, when Russian and Belarusian troops will unite for a common offensive and move to Kiev.
In such a scenario, another country would undoubtedly join the armed conflict. In this case, the question arises, will it be "possible" to attack Belarus from, say, neighboring Poland without it turning into a direct clash between the Russian Federation and NATO?
And although today's meeting worries Kiev the most, other nearby capitals also care. For example, Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, is only 25 kilometers from the Belarusian border. Warsaw is a little further (about 130 kilometers). Tallinn and Riga are closer to the Russian border than to the Belarusian one.
What do we know about today's meeting in Minsk? Not much, but the very fact of its holding tells us a lot. First of all, it proves that Vladimir Putin has decided to take a central role in what is happening around the armed conflict. He used to stay away, but now he's coming forward. At the end of last week, he visited the operations center, where he met with the highest military command. One gets the impression that Vladimir Putin has "become more active", and this is potentially dangerous for him, since so far Vladimir Putin has been protected from very sharp criticism of his generals and ministers in a sense by the fact that he has kept out of the focus of attention.
Today, Vladimir Putin arrived in Minsk for the first time since 2019, that is, after the pandemic, as well as a wave of mass anti-government protests. Then Moscow had to literally save its ally, and since then Alexander Lukashenko has been much more dependent on the Russian Federation than before.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that Belarus is the "number one ally", but denied allegations that Moscow is forcing Minsk to join the armed conflict. "Stupid and unfounded statements," Dmitry Peskov said. But remember that Peskov and the company from the Kremlin said the same thing about the attack on Ukraine, and in the end they did it.
The Ukrainian commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, said last week that he was sure that the Russian Federation was preparing two hundred thousand "new fighters" for a large-scale offensive. But he is not ready to say from which direction it will begin, that is, whether Russia will attack from the east, the south or, perhaps, again from Belarus. He is convinced that the offensive will begin soon, probably in January, but the most likely date is early spring.
Vladimir Putin announced his planned visit to Minsk last Friday after his Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unexpectedly visited Minsk in early December, where he signed an agreement with his Belarusian counterpart, the details of which are hidden from the public.
Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also met in Minsk today. Sergei Aleynik recently took over the post after his predecessor Vladimir Makei unexpectedly passed away last month. The cause of death has not been announced, but it should be noted that Vladimir Makei was one of the last, perhaps even the last high-ranking leader in the administration of Alexander Lukashenko, who maintained some relations with the West.
Alexander Lukashenko said that he had discussed with Vladimir Putin the details of the long-awaited integration of the Russian Federation and Belarus into the union. Many believe that in fact, Russia intends to simply annex Belarus during this process. Alexander Lukashenko himself might have agreed to this a few years ago, but not now. Touching upon this issue on the eve of the meeting with Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko also noted that "sovereignty and independence are unshakable, and any talk we have or otherwise is a betrayal of the interests of the Belarusian people."
It is expected that we will also talk about energy, economic cooperation and other always topical issues, but all these are insufficient reasons for Vladimir Putin to go to Minsk himself. The current meeting is very important, and we will find out how much soon. Probably in the first days and weeks of the new year 2023.
