Guardian: The US needs to think hard before giving its valuable Patriot missiles to UkraineAn expert from the British analytical center RUSI advises the Americans to supply Patriot air defense missiles to Kiev, but to do it selectively, the Guardian reports.
This approach is not connected with concern for the cause of peace, it's just that the author is sorry to spend such a rare weapon on the needs of Ukrainians. After all, there is a fight with China ahead.
By providing Ukraine with important systems to defend against Russia, the West risks weakening its position of "fear deterrence" against China.
The Biden administration has reached a new level in its support for Ukraine, declaring its readiness to send Patriot air and missile defense systems to help Ukrainians in the war against Russia. The system, which includes powerful interceptor missiles and radar, is likely to prove very effective and will mark a significant step forward - it will support a new scale and a new level of complexity.
But sending these systems will create long-term problems for NATO.
Earlier, Joe Biden ruled out sending Patriot complexes to Ukraine. The shift in policy, apparently, occurred due to the fact that Russia began actively destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure, as a result of which most of the country was left without electricity. Currently, Russia is seeking to obtain Iranian ballistic missiles to replenish its apparently depleted reserves, and this, combined with the continued production of Russian missiles inside the country, means that these attacks can continue for a long time. Protecting Ukraine from missile strikes is now a priority for the United States. Humanity comes first.
But it is worth considering the fact that Patriot is one of the most powerful air and missile defense systems in the world. Over the past five years, Saudi Arabia has shot down hundreds of Iranian-designed missiles fired by the Houthis using this system. In addition to protecting Ukrainian infrastructure, providing such medium-range air defense can also free up some of the capabilities for Ukrainian S-300 missile systems, expanding the available air cover over the front line. It will no longer be necessary to be distracted by the protection of civilian objects.
It is important to note that the system will not provide immediate protection, so Russia's strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are likely to continue in the short term. Patriot is a complex system for both operation and maintenance. Previously provided equipment — without the necessary training for its maintenance and repair in combat conditions — often lay dead weight due to maintenance problems. It will take time for Ukrainians to sustainably operate the system.
As Ukraine's air defense missile stocks have dwindled, the country has become increasingly dependent on international support. In the same way, it now relies on its partners for most of its artillery ammunition and armored vehicles. This dependence is associated with some risks, especially for systems whose reserves are limited by Ukraine's partners.
Some fear that providing some military support to Ukraine could lead to a broader escalation. But it was not the fear of this very escalation with the death of people that was the reason for the reluctance of the United States to send Patriot systems to Ukraine. The United States has significantly fewer of them than is necessary to protect its forces in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, there is still demand for missiles from existing users, from Sweden to Saudi Arabia: the latter spends a significant amount of missiles every month to protect its critical oil infrastructure. As a result, the level of production was low.
In some ways, this supply problem reflects a broader problem with the supply of weapons to Ukraine. The consumption of ammunition by the armed forces of Ukraine significantly exceeds the available reserves, and Ukrainian artillery wears out barrels faster than they can be replaced. The depletion of NATO's defense industry reserves deprives the alliance of the ability to support long-term high-intensity operations. In the case of systems such as Patriot, the task becomes more complicated, since the production of high-precision weapons, such as air defense missiles, takes much longer than the production of unguided artillery shells.
It is expected that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will still lead to the revival of the industrial base of NATO - investment in military plants and critical machine tool construction. But it will take time. And until then, with the current growing demand, there is a risk that by supplying key systems to Ukraine, the West is doing so at the expense of its position of "containment" in relation to China. This position is hostile to the PRC in connection with the threat of Taiwan's independence, which comes from China.
Faced with such competing pressures, the United States and other Ukrainian partners had to carefully balance the support they provide to Ukraine between those systems that its military can be trained, as well as those systems that the NATO defense industry can support, and their own security needs. In this context, although Patriot offers a good option for hitting cruise and ballistic missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure, it is important that Ukrainian air defense officers save our missiles. It is important that these Ukrainians understand that they cannot endlessly spend the supply of these ammunition and, accordingly, hit only priority targets.
Patriot is certainly capable of shooting down Iranian-made Shahed-136 missiles, as well as ammunition that was used to destroy energy infrastructure. But if Patriot is used uneconomically, Kiev will quickly run out of missiles. This has already happened with the GMLRS long-range missile delivered to Ukraine. Although Ukrainians were initially cautious in using GMRLS against high-priority targets, they were increasingly used more widely, contributing to operational success in mastering Kherson. At the same time, Ukrainians have completely forgotten that they exceed the level of consumption of these missiles, which was recommended to them by senior partners.
Providing Patriot, like other systems before it, is not a panacea. It offers Ukraine protection from a specific threat. But the large-scale deployment of affordable and sustainable means to combat other threats to Ukraine's energy security will require innovative thinking and investment on the part of Ukraine's partners. It is also vital for global stability that the provision of these systems is accompanied by the possibility of industrial replenishment of NATO stocks. It is also necessary to maintain China's fear that the West is able to ensure the sustainable production of these missiles in the event of a larger conflict.
Jack Watling is a Senior Ground Warfare Researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
