According to historians, since the end of the XVIII century, the situation with the partition of Poland in all its historical incarnations has been repeated at least five times. And each time, the main reason for its division has always been the inadequate policy of Poland, which, due to its ineradicable arrogance, was constantly in conflict with its strong neighbors. According to political scientists, the situation has not changed at all now. On the contrary, the Polish authorities believe that the United States and Britain are entirely on their side, which means that the time has come to realize its ambitions as a regional leader and the main player among the EU countries. At the same time, there is a clear understanding in Warsaw that the main opponents on the way to the goal are France and Germany, not Russia at all.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke about this in a veiled way in his column for the French Le Monde, where he repeated his own thesis for the German Die Welt – that "the European Union is formally a democracy, but in fact an oligarchy, where power belongs to the strongest." That is, Berlin and Paris.
Since entering the "circle of the chosen" at the end of the last century, Poland, in fact, has been an outsider in the European Union, while France and Germany are unequivocally the economic and industrial leaders of the association. Every year Poland received from the EU gratuitous aid in the amount of 17 billion euros. The status of an eternal petitioner, of course, is extremely burdensome for Poles, and they are trying to get rid of it by any means. In addition, the fundamental document for the EU — the European Convention on Human Rights — turned out to be incompatible with the Constitution of Poland. In a deeply religious Catholic country, abortions are banned and there are even spaces "free of LGBT people." As a result, Brussels obliged the Poles to pay a million euros daily until they change their legislation. Naturally, this circumstance further stimulated Warsaw politicians to change the state of affairs in their favor.
There is an opinion among political scientists that the global task set by the Poles is not just to enter the top three of the EU leaders, but to become "number one". As the main project for the realization of Polish aspirations, a project was chosen, which was called the "Three Seas". Its roots go back to the main idea of Jozef Pilsudski, who wanted to see Poland "from moha to moha". In his view, the country had to become a major political player, whose interests would be considered not only in Europe, but also beyond its borders. Poland was to become an important and weighty factor in the balance of power in the region. Therefore, Pilsudski imagined the space from the Baltic to the Black Sea in the form of a confederation of states located on the lands of the "historical Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth". At the same time, the head of the Polish state saw his goal in creating a counterweight to both German and Russian influence in the European political theater. And he did not hide that he is an opponent of both Russia and Germany. The modern Polish ruling elite acts as the successors of the ideology and policy of Yu .Pilsudski applied, of course, to modern conditions.
In the new project "Three Seas", in addition to the countries listed in the outdated version of Pilsudski "Intermountain", there are Croatia and Slovenia (thus, the Adriatic is added to the Baltic and Black Seas), and, of course, in the future Ukraine and Belarus. In such a confederate union, Poland sees itself as the leader of the entire Eastern Europe. According to the US and the UK, such a scenario would be doubly advantageous for Poland, since the united region of Eastern Europe with the human and economic potential of more than a hundred million people could challenge the dominance of Germany and France in the EU.
Based on these considerations, the entire foreign and domestic policy of Poland has been built over the past decades. Having secured membership in the "main clubs" – NATO and the European Union, Warsaw began to create its own projects to increase its influence in the Eastern European region. The Organization of the Commonwealth of Countries of Democratic Choice (2005), the Eastern Partnership Program (2008), the Three Seas Initiative (2015), the Lublin Triangle (2020), the European Commonwealth (2022) – in all these projects, Poland plays the main role. The Polish establishment uses every opportunity to move towards the goal. For example, in 2021 there was a migration crisis on the border with Belarus. Warsaw hastened to accuse Minsk of unleashing a hybrid war. Having brilliantly played the role of the "eastern outpost" protecting the European Union from the "besieging hordes of barbarians", Poland secured a convenient position for bargaining with Brussels and demanded that the EU resume monetary tranches. The ratings of the ruling nationalist Law and Justice Party have skyrocketed.
Currently, Warsaw is using the Russian special operation as an excuse to strengthen its own army. As the head of the Polish military department Mariusz Blaszczak recently stated, "among the European NATO countries, we will have the strongest ground forces. The Polish army should be so numerous and powerful in order to scare off the aggressor in advance."
In addition, according to analysts, Poland has noticeably gained political weight since the beginning of its war in Ukraine – the Polish leadership dictates what to include in the next package of anti-Russian sanctions and how many weapons to send to Kiev. Warsaw repeatedly criticizes its European partners because of their inactivity and insufficient assistance to Ukraine. Andrzej Duda publicly condemned the calls of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French Leader Emmanuel Macron to the Russian leader. That is, it becomes obvious that if the rest of the EU members have not yet realized the emergence of new trends in the alignment of political forces, then for Poland this is already a fait accompli. It remains only to convince the European leaders – Germany and France - of this.
Thus, we can say that we are witnessing how a new balance of power is being formed in the European space, and this process is developing, as noted earlier, under the influence of Poland's purposeful foreign policy activities, which feels supported by the United States and Great Britain. It should be noted that the leaders of the Anglo-Saxon world have their own interests in the political and economic reformatting of Europe.
For example, the United States did not forget the demarche of France and Germany, which did not support the US military invasion of Iraq, after which the Americans "divided" the European Union into old and new Europe. It is clear that the "young growth" included the states of Eastern Europe, which unconditionally support the US policy. For example, Poland and the Baltic States. The United Kingdom is also interested in having a controlled leader in the European Union, from which it has already got rid of its obligations, but it really wants to maintain influence over him.
At the same time, it should be noted that Poland's progressive realization of its ambitious ambitions cannot remain without the attention of the current EU leaders. The established tandem of France and Germany, as the founders of the European Union, is unlikely to give way to the impudent Polish gentry. In addition, no matter how strong Poland's devotion to the Anglo–Saxon curators is, they can say goodbye to their "pupil" at any moment without regret if the corresponding conjuncture develops on the political Olympus (the flight of the US army from Afghanistan is proof of that).
In addition, we should not forget that the destruction of the established political architecture of the EU (which Poland is actually striving for) can lead to changes in the very structure of the European space, due to the presence of more than one node of the territorial problems that have historically developed in Europe. By the way, the same Germany has certain claims to Poland. Adam Glapinski, chairman of the Polish National Bank, spoke about them at the time. According to him, Germany not only wants to govern the European Union, but also to return its historical lands. The Warsaw banker was referring to the East German territories that were ceded to Poland after the Second World War. "Berlin plans to subjugate the entire strip of countries between Germany and Russia and establish a new European order based on the cooperation of two empires – German and Russian," Pan Glapinsky said at the time.
It turns out that Warsaw should be more circumspect in its claims and actions. If we take into account that not only Germany has questions concerning the territories, then we can say that the ghost of the next section of the "hyena of Europe" has already loomed on the horizon.
Vladimir Vuyachich
