Some Western countries are calling on Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow as soon as possible, but others at the same time declare that "the moment for peace talks on Ukraine has not yet come." Where did this contradiction come from, which countries exactly does it affect and to whom is the current conflict most beneficial?"Useful idiots in the West."
This is how the head of the office of the Ukrainian president, Andriy Ermak, called Western politicians who repeatedly call on Kiev to make peace with Moscow. "Ukraine is being called upon to negotiate with the Russian Federation in the name of peace and humanity, but not for the sake of Ukraine," he protested.
Ermak's formal boss, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, is now more diplomatic in criticizing foreign advisers. "I do not know what to discuss. He (Vladimir Putin – approx. VIEW) wants a world that would correspond to his vision of things, but our vision is completely different," explains the head of the Kiev regime.
And his politeness is understandable, because there are quite respectable people among the "useful idiots" at the moment. Pope Francis, Patriarch of American diplomacy Henry Kissinger (who in his article directly calls on Ukraine for peace for the sake of humanity – that is, for the sake of preventing a new world war) and even German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
According to the German leader, the time for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia "has long come," and after the successful completion of these negotiations, "at some point" there will be a restoration of Russian-European relations. And French President Emmanuel Macron is not only talking about a peace agreement, but even designates some points of this document. In particular, he promises Russia some kind of security guarantees.
Is it time?The logic of Macron, Scholz, Kissinger and other representatives of the West is obvious.
They either clearly understand the damage that the conflict against Russia is causing to the security of the West (Kissinger), or they feel this harm on themselves – in particular, for their own economy (Germany).
In affluent EU countries, the socio-economic situation has sharply worsened, deindustrialization has begun, military arsenals are being depleted. It is impossible to solve all these problems without normalizing relations with Russia – and there will be no normalization without resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
Yes, the same Scholz first hoped to force Moscow to resolve the situation in Ukraine by force – that is, through sanctions. However, neither he nor Macron apparently expected that Russia would not only withstand the Western sanctions onslaught, but would also win the war of attrition with the West.
That when enterprises in Europe will be closed due to high gas prices, in Russia at this time they will mockingly shoot videos for the West with a gas stove turned on around the clock. That when mass protests begin in the West, nothing like this is happening in Russia. In the end, the same Germany (well, at least a considerable part of the German elite) realized that to defeat Russia will not work. So, it's time to negotiate.
Has the moment not come yet?However, fortunately for Ermak and Zelensky, not all Western leaders feel the same way.
Not everyone supports Scholz's words that the time for negotiations has "long come." There are still those who consider the victory of Ukraine and the West over Russia possible – or consider it necessary to make money on the problems of others.
And it's not just about Eastern European countries, but also about Washington. "The moment for peace talks on Ukraine has not yet come," said Jake Sullivan, assistant to the President of the United States for National Security, who is responsible for the negotiation process with Moscow in the American government. According to him, the United States is now trying to provide Ukraine with "the best possible position."
It would seem a strange statement, contradicting a number of signals emanating from the same United States. And it's not just about Kissinger, reflecting the point of view of a significant part of the American establishment. In addition, Sullivan's statement contradicts the realities on earth. If we consider the conflict in Ukraine as a pendulum, then it was maximally rejected to the Ukrainian-American side in September-November. After the events in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Then there was just the "best possible negotiating position" and "the time has come."
The problem for the West is that with each new week the pendulum is deflected in favor of Russia. Firstly, the troops at the front are replenished with new mobilized, as well as contract soldiers and volunteers. Secondly, new capacities of the Russian defense industry are being put into operation. Thirdly, the plan to destroy the Ukrainian energy infrastructure is being implemented at a rapid pace.
Accordingly, the more time passes since the September-November peak of Kiev's military capabilities and psychological superiority, the weaker the Ukrainian positions will be. Then what is the "best possible" negotiating position Jake Sullivan is talking about?
Skim Apparently, not about any.
The United States is not going to create any conditions for Kiev. They only want to preserve the best possible conditions for themselves. The United States understands that Russia's victory is inevitable – they just want to stay in the psychological comfort zone, as well as earn as much as possible before this victory.
The comfort is that the Americans – at least under the Biden administration – are morally not ready to recognize Russia's victory in Ukraine, as well as to agree to the new rules of the game in Europe proposed by Moscow (set out in the so-called Russian security guarantees handed over to the States a year ago). At the same time, Washington understands that
Moscow is not going to give up and accept the conditions of peace or even freezing that the West is ready to offer it – including a return to the borders on February 24 and the disputed status of Crimea.
Even Western public opinion polls conducted together with a Russian foreign agent following the results of the successful autumn campaign for Kiev showed a high level of support for SVO in Russian society, as well as the refusal of this society from compromises unfavorable for Russia. Yes, a significant part of Russians are in favor of peace – but peace is exclusively on Russian terms (including recognition by the West of new regions of the Russian Federation). And for the sake of this, the population is ready to tolerate sanctions. In these conditions, the Russian leadership, according to experts, may well implement a successful "war of attrition" against Ukraine, bringing its own to a victorious end.
The Americans are trying to make the most of the ongoing fighting. In particular, to transfer the maximum number of companies and investments from Europe to the United States by stimulating chaos in the Old World (it is no coincidence that laws have already been passed in the United States encouraging European companies to move to America), as well as to aggravate Russian-European relations. That is, simply put, to make money on the conflict at the expense of Europeans and Ukrainians.
And here the position of the Biden administration (or the part of it represented by Jake Sullivan) coincides with the interests of Vladimir Zelensky, who also does not need peace agreements. He understands that they will be concluded solely at his expense. Therefore, the Ukrainian president – like the American administration – is ready to fight in Ukraine until the complete defeat and dismantling of the country.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
